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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

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  1. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    We're saved!
  2. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Even though ssta's to me look like 2011, one major difference is the MJO that December was closer to phase 5. Right now we're close to 7. If blocking develops as modeled down the stretch, then we could luck out. I also remember Bob Chill saying -NAO during the Fall is a good sign for NAO in winter. I'm still skeptical, but more uncertain.
  3. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    That's not always the case. It's just some years the models are more chaotic.
  4. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    It's kind of strange how the MJO is being modeled to race toward the null circle and then back out.
  5. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    This comment might ruin the positive vibes about the long range, but I'm only going to mention my opinion here once. I'm skeptical that the MJO will cycle into phase 8, because the ensembles don't show much consistency. Back to lurking.
  6. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    The basics are pretty simple if you use these two references and match the variable to the phase from the ensembles. Temperature: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Precip: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/
  7. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
  8. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I have to be honest, I haven't looked at a single gfs run in quite some time. Focusing on just the euro reduces false hope.
  9. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    A sheared out mess
  10. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    0z euro looks like about .5".
  11. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Ever since he left Accuweather his expertise seems to have declined. It really makes me wonder about him leaving.
  12. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I will copy my next comment to banter.
  13. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I used to think he knew what he was talking about. The issue I have with his '96 idea is he's basing the analog on a model for early January. I've learned that analoging works best when you compare to the current conditions and not using models to base an argument.
  14. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I sent two emails without a response.
  15. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I'm not entering the contest. I just want to predict DCA: 4".
  16. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Have we scheduled a time yet?
  17. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I was thinking that a good day to try this out would be the start of meteorological winter unless someone has a better suggestion. Maybe we'll have a Dec 5 threat to track?
  18. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I'm out
  19. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    You know what the forum hasn't done that should've taken place ages ago? A ZOOM call! We should totally set something up! I genuinely want to get to know people from here in real life.
  20. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I have a cool idea for forum members to collaborate on an ongoing project. What if we collectively did a blog on the most memorable events our forum has covered! Anyone can participate. The idea would be to write a brief summary for each event and include links to articles and data from the event! Anyone interested?
  21. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters! 1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)
  22. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    What a shelf cloud at Nationals Park!
  23. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    I can't stand Davey Martinez's managing style!
  24. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    This isn't March!
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    and dry slotted
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