Thinksnow18

Agreed. They even mention that in the text from this morning...it states upwards of 6" form Buf to Roc and the western finger lakes and that there could be more...well if I'm not mistaken isn't winter storm warning criteria 7" in 12 hours??? Heck thats awfully close.

Very interesting turn of events on the models today...euro caved to the GFS for the Wednesday event and it looks like the GFS is caving to the euro for the weekend event and no longer shows a cutter instead another LP heading on a track to the south and eventually across eastern NY... I thought the local met on WIVB was out to lunch this morning when he took the 40's and 50's off the board for this weekend and replaced them with low 20's and snow...if this trend gets legs both models show we would be quite cold for the next 10 to 14 days.

I'm intrigued and concerned. Living downwind of lake Erie in the Niagara Frontier these types of events can really spark widespread power outages and plenty of downs trees. I think it was just a few years back that Orleans or Genesee Co's had an 82 mph wind gust...with the freeze/thaw cycle on steroids this year we could be looking at some real issues by Sunday evening.

4.2" measured at 8:45 when I left for the office this morning in Williamsville. Dead on with forecast. Looking like another bi-polar weather week ahead.

I think anything from the 90 north is 4" to 7" from this event

Well we did receive almost 5" of friction lake effect yesterday and not one model picked that up, in fact there was damn near Blizzard conditions for a good 3 hours late afternoon early evening in buffalo. I would not be surprised at a repeat 2 days after.

It's hard to truly measure but 4 to 5 in Williamsville today...4 or 5 more than I was expecting. Puts me close to 100" on the year...january was a huge boost to the seasonal average. If we can get one or two more decent events 115 or at most 120 are not impossible.

Hey those two models are as credible as a sales person from Attica university. The GFS and the Euro show a decent event for next Monday and Tues...not gonna worry about the GEM or the ICON

Snowing heavily in williamsville at the moment, radar looks good for the next 2 hours or so might pick up a windblown couple of inches

Thats a great LP placement...oh and it's been consistent...remember that's a low that transfers to the coast...has shown that since yesterday. Th primary takes over and we are left with an inverted trough and plenty of cold air on the backside. If that low was up near WNY or Southern Ontario alarm bells would be going off.

Im in Williamsville on sheridan and it looks like every tree, shrub, grass is covered in thick glass...probably about 1 hour away from outages if this continues

Op GFS is straight garbage right now...has more personality changes than norman Bates!!

Or maybe its starting to slowly come around to the Euro's thinking!

Call me an optimist but I'm riding the Euro for next week's storm...not the clown map Kuchera totals but because it sniffed out the warmer solution for tomorrow and Thursdays storm being more wet and warm earlier than the GOOFUS did. I think when it gets closer say 48 hours from now we'll be tracking another snow event next week.

Tough news BW. As a green card carrying member of Roswell I can say first hand she's in great hands and is at the forefront of cancer research and treatment. Prayers to her and your family.

Agreed. Keep hearing Mets say mid February...its long were being catfished at this point...theres cold and snowy weather out there but we'll never see it!

Long range looks anything but torch...goes back to below average by this weekend and signs that mid February the PV is back in. If anything no pattern that sticks.

The only real question is how much are you selling your other house for???

Love that this has been equal opportunity off lake Erie...heavy snow right now Sheridan near park country club...tiny flakes and the visibility is poor.

If the band can intensify some and lock down KBUF might have a chance.

Beginning to snow again in Williamsville. Band looks to be no more than 4 or 5 miles wide so it might just make a pass through here.

Borden in Depew?

I have witnessed this most recently as December '17 when a leading band was over the Northtowns and a southern band from blasdell south.

Yeah that is pretty spot on. Not sure what caused the issues but one thing is clear is the models did a piss poor job right up to and during the event...several times the band was supposed to move south, and each time it didn't, not to mention only Parker and WKBW 7 showed a model with a dual band, the other stations were reaching for a beer 10 feet away with 2 foot arms.

It has snowed under that northern band in Williamsville since yesterday morning for 35 of the 38 hours since yesterday at 9am. This storm has baffled the Mets from the NWS to the local on air Mets...in fact Andrew Baglini on WIVB 4 just stated " I will not show you the models because they are useless...you don't say...