Jump to content

Thinksnow18

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,144

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Yeah ibthink when the updated 3-4 week outlook comes out tomorrow the eastern 1/3 will be in all blue.
  2. Thinksnow18
    I can get behind the argument for the frozen lake, however, the models still have a southern bias with lake effect in general...too many times this year the models fringed the Northtowns and the heart of the band was further than modeled...in fact the models on WIVB in house did so poorly one of the Mets actually stated on air the model was performing poorly and discounted it.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Honestly this might be one of the worst forecasting jobs by the models and NWS maps from those models since I can remember...and with the "new" GFS model about to debut this spring and it's already a giant tire fire I don't expect any better results going forward.
  4. Thinksnow18
    If KBUF picks up 4" today we might be tough to catch...
  5. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. I think in the areas that show 4" cut in half and for most of the area outside of the main LES band near Oswego.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Isn't it odd that with the March sun and it's technically meteorological spring that we are in the midst of our longest snow cover since late November early December???
  7. Thinksnow18
    Radar trends in lower Michigan are looking healthy and winds are out of the SW...im liking the afternoon for some heavy snow for a few hours and with gusty winds it's going to be nasty out.
  8. Thinksnow18
    I mentioned it yesterday and I see the NWS has listened!!! Lmao kidding of course but that band off lake Erie last night proves good at might be an overachiever.
  9. Thinksnow18
    That band has some life in it. And it appears to be staying steady state over the lake.
  10. Thinksnow18
    I would not be surprised if the light snow overperforms tomorrow NE. Of the lakes as the SW goes through. NWS mentions friction enhancement NE of Erie tomorrow in the 1 to 3 inch range...but I recall an event earlier that overperformed with cracks along the the shores.
  11. Thinksnow18
    I agree the S/W in Ontario is the key driver for this storms ultimate track. If the EURO is right then the S/W is held back a bit allowing the southern stream to lift further north...however the GFS has been showing that same S/W ahead of the southern stream low and ultimately keeping it further south and east...time will tell after the low comes ashore over the Pacific Coast.
  12. Thinksnow18
    So with a track like that it's assumed the LP goes through southern PA and out to Cape Cod?
  13. Thinksnow18
    One thing that has me holding hope is the Euro was the first to sniff out this weekend being colder while the GFS had a cutter storm and 45 to 50 Saturday...it has since shoved the low track well east while the euro then settled on its current track...if I'm a betting man I think this is the euros storm just like the GFS was right with yesterdays storm.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Like Roch said that track suits us well for synoptic and lake enhanced snows.
  15. Thinksnow18
    You think the euro is wrong on this? If anything it may not be a flush hit for us in upstate but the other models are starting a more northerly track more towards the king. Tendencies have been for storm tracks to shift north as the event gets closer so in my kind I love where we sit on the models right now.
  16. Thinksnow18
    Finished at 5.7...happy about it.
  17. Thinksnow18
    About 4 in Williamsville (3.8") looks good for 6"...ill take it and if euro pans out it will look pretty awesome around here...KBUF might flirt with 130" this year...longshot but there's a chance.
  18. Thinksnow18
    To the weather, which seems pretty inconsequential at this moment...driving west on Sheridan Sheridan drive in Williamsville heading west and this is definitely moderate snowfall rates but not flake size...its accumulating like death by 1000 paper cuts!!!
  19. Thinksnow18
    Wow BW im shocked and saddened for you and for your family. Hopefully there is a plan and that she can begin immediately. Thoughts and prayers.
  20. Thinksnow18
    Knew it...the trends to the west verify this. Couple inches max.
  21. Thinksnow18
    Anyone else concerned that there seems to be a large amount of drying to the west and the better dynamics are north in upper lower Michigan and Ontario???
  22. Thinksnow18
    And because the last few winters have had some decent late season snow events
  23. Thinksnow18
    Local met Cejka on WIVB just spoke of another storm of at least this magnitude late sunday and sunday night...not seeing anything on the models...
  24. Thinksnow18
    Guys the midweek thing is tomorrow less than 16 hours away...all guidance has been trending up with totals and that's why the NWS hoisted the WWA at 11am today for 4 to 7. In fact most models are showing up to 8 for the buffalo to western finger lakes region tomorrow.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Looks like the best lift and dynamics run along the 90 from buffalo through roch and into the finger lakes...i would not be surprised to hear of 8" amounts in spots with any enhancement from Ontario.
×
×
  • Create New...