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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Congrats boys! Hope the forecast pans out!
  2. Thinksnow18
    Yep it felt more common before 2000. There is a definite shift in wind direction or storm track that's not allowing a long lasting event like 2000 or 85.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Lol does zuckerberg own this site???
  4. Thinksnow18
    It's been years for the northern metro and suburbs...southern buffalo and southtowns have killed it.
  5. Thinksnow18
    In other words the metro gets the shaft!!!
  6. Thinksnow18
    Because the NWS in Buffalo is painting a more long term cold for the forseeable future. And right now that clearly isn't the case.
  7. Thinksnow18
    I get it so im guessing with this afternoons update the wording will shift immensely.
  8. Thinksnow18
    I guess I'm missing something. I figured with the PV so close to is that all systems out of Canada would be shunted far south and we'd end up frigid and dry...however the exact opposite seems to be occurring. I guess my rub is it can't be both ways, can it?
  9. Thinksnow18
    The 6z showed the LP for next week Tuesday which has been touted as an area to watch for significant snow potential suddenly shifted north of the CWA and we get rain...the 2 others after are also rain snow mixes...sadly everything between seems to get very cold but dry. Something to watch for sure. I see in wolfies post above the euro still has this opportunity...hopefully it's right.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Ok yes it says ridge, however it does say cross polar flow, staying power etc...how is all that possible when the models all show cutters?
  11. Thinksnow18
    And that's the rub...they state it is a strong block. Someone is very wrong here either the models or the forecast of weeks of cold
  12. Thinksnow18
    So I read the KBUF AFD this morning, specifically the long range for friday through next Monday. The discuss the perfect set up for cross polar air die to a +PNA and Greenland block supercharging the air as the PV drops to the northern Great Lakes! They state this will have lasting power through the foreseeable future too!!! Elaborate then why the next 3 systems after that all cut west of us giving us rain instead of snow?!?!?!
  13. Thinksnow18
    Ding ding on the Saturday SW flow!!!
  14. Thinksnow18
    First Mike's wording is a bit convoluted...he says the region (entire area) will experience potentially heavy lake effect this upcoming weekend then says maybe parts of the metro as well...huh. The metro is part of the region as a whole and would be included in that statement. As for what I see at this timeframe is a good chance the lake effect will be buffalo and North for a good chunk of Saturday night and Sunday as the clipper looks to pass north of the great lakes bringing a more SW component.
  15. Thinksnow18
    Agreed.
  16. Thinksnow18
    How much snow have you recorded?
  17. Thinksnow18
    I've noticed the last few runs on the GFS have had a difficult time with the cold air after about 5 or 6 days, the models want to shove all the Clippers right over us or to the north of us which seems odd for the pattern were in. In fact if the 06z model was to be believed or is sniffing something out then a huge ice storm would be on tap in the long term.
  18. Thinksnow18
    BW how is the upcoming weekend looking for LES chances? The GOOFUS shows a clipper around Sunday that would clearly bring SW winds for a good 12 hours beforehand...lake is down to 33 but a total freeze is not going to happen...might get to 40% but alot of slush ice which is still good enough for LES. Thoughts?
  19. Thinksnow18
    13.1" this morning. Just saw the radar loop for the past 4 hours and the banding was intense!
  20. Thinksnow18
    Definitely heavier returns to our SW heading this way should equate to moderate to at time heavy snow for the next 6 hours or so. But dendrite size will play a BIG role in overall accums.
  21. Thinksnow18
    I'm shocked at the KBUF number...im at 6.3" for the day but I am about 5 miles NE of the airport/NWS. Intensity has picked up but the dendrites still small...need that to change soon.
  22. Thinksnow18
    I'm thinking Williamsville gets to 15" by the end of tomorrow...also at 6" right now.
  23. Thinksnow18
    Looks like from about 9 or 10 to about 6am will see the heaviest returns in WNY and later in CNY. I haven't come across a forecast (nowcast) that gives less than a foot average for all WNY.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Heavier returns entering from the southern tier right now...so much more moisture to come through and the LP is only in Tennessee!!!
  25. Thinksnow18
    So the NW side of the precip seems to be eroding...is that due to the high pressure over southern Ontario or is the storm deepening and will pivot soon?
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