North and West

The problem is you’re stuck living in Buffalo. .

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Every generation thinks the generation following them in incompetent. This looks like something shared by an old lady on Facebook in all caps. My kids love to cut grass and shovel. Not that they’re special, but because they enjoy it. .

A weekly winter cancel .

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It’s like baking a cake. You need a little baking powder or salt to help it out, but if you spill three times the amount, there’s going to be something off about the taste. .

Walking in at the beginning of this month to see a nice, negative NAO… .

As a Mets fan… .

Thank you for your skillful analyses, as well. It helps enhance what I read. .

Always nice writeups! .

They’re a tool and a talking point, but they’re prone to historically incessant insanity. .

I definitely lack your knowledge as well as theirs, but it feels like whiplash with long range forecasts changing a lot recently. I’m interested to see how this pans out for us. .

This guy sounds like he’s trying to build a following and hope he scores an unexpected hit to build credibility via an “I Called It First” tactic, rather than mentioning likely scenarios and outcomes. This is product marketing 101. (That’s part of my career) .

PSA here as well. .

I like when we can do a Cancel Winter | Sun Angle crossover event.

Positive economic growth and education has correlated to better health and lower population growth (so much so that many advanced economies have plateaued or are shrinking due to smaller proceeding generations; best example is Japan). .

I know you’re going on your daily HAM postings, but there’s something off about EVs. I’m not against them - I’m a big believer in that we shouldn’t be using oil/petrochemicals as an energy source if possible, since they’re so applicable in so many other aspects of modern life - but EVs are not without their own negatives. I say this as someone who hopes to have a plug-in hybrid or full EV as their next car. I was in the Buick dealership recently getting my Enclave serviced (great vehicle for a family of four) and noticed the Hummer EV. Guess how much it weighs? 9800 pounds! My Enclave is 5600 lbs. by itself. 9800! How much of that is rare earth metals? Where does that go once the usable life of the car is done? How much energy is used to produce and ship that vehicle? In summation, very few things are black and white. .

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I do. And how much TWC 5 Day Forecasts would change. .

Regarding climate change, I’ve always thought of it as analogous as steroids in baseball; you’ve always had home runs and other outside variable factors (a wind gust coming through unexpectedly, a humid night, a scuff on the ball) impacting the flight of the ball, and steroids may take that warning track fly and push it over the wall, or the infield fly and make it a bloop, or a roided-up pitcher with too much velocity on a fastball and straightening it out, making it easier to hit the other way. .

This is a good point of why averages exist. Everything regresses to a mean. History rhymes but doesn’t repeat itself. .

It feels like the focus on increasing expertise should be on the 6-10 day window, since so many changes still occur, especially with wintertime forecasting. There always seem to be so many dynamic moving parts; much like a protractor, one angle degree off at Point A leads to wide differentials the further out you get. With 11+ day forecasts, it’s just way too variable. It doesn’t *seem* any different to the amateur eye versus what I remember from 30+ years ago. It’s not the same as much with established tropical systems such as Cape Verde hurricanes, since they take such a long, slow time to develop once they start.

By the way, I want to make sure to compliment you on this writeup. This was very easy for the feeble-minded such as myself to understand, while still being thorough. Whether or not it tells me a forecast I do or don’t prefer, how we get there was still laid out logically. Thank you! .

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