North and West

I feel like a drug addict asking, but... anybody got the EPS? *scratches neck, avoids eye contact

That's exactly what I thought he meant.

Conservatism is the way to go, especially this far out.  But they also complain that no one listens to them because this is a social media world now

What does Janice Huff think?

I think we know which camp the NAM is in, and I'm not surprised.
It used to be a saying that the NAM and Euro combo was deadly.
You can see the absolute mega band of lift setting up already at hour 84.

Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


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24-48 inches on Long Island with 70-90 mph gusts.  Too conservative?

It’s been cold this month. Just a nice steady chill. Wonder when it’ll flip, because that’s what it does.


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Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Dont diminish seasonal precedent of trending east with a fast flow. Especially if it starts to show again
This is too far out to get excited
And it is certainly too far out to dismiss another out to sea possibility
There seems to be a subforum opinion that we have to have a major snow this January. The pattern is too good.
Yet the pattern keeps proving hostile

The GFS will almost always throw out an odd run and yes it's often on the 6z or 18z cycle. However if 0Z models all trend east then i'd get worried.  

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agree 100% anyone who even suggests this might be a HECS 4 - 5 days in advance  has a lot to learn IMO...

Yup, right up there with March 2001 which many on here are too young to remember. 

I was in the one-inch snowhole for that storm (Allentown). WSW for 10-16 turned into a coating of pixie dust. A truly awful memory, and reading the reports in this forum of what was happening 50 miles to my east made everything ten times worse.

Please don’t list out amounts yet. I feel this is the same every year. It’s four days away, and that’s four days it can scoot out to sea or run up the Delaware.

I’ve seen this movie before. You may not like the ending.


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This is 4 days out 
Plenty of time

Looks like it’s game time. This is giving me the chills. If we reach those pressures we are talking one of the greats with the full plate of impacts. From feet of snow (most likely east) to damaging winds and major coastal flooding.

I’m almost certain that it won’t snow, if only to not get sucked in to checking the models.




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I still don’t get everyone wishing for warm weather in March. It’s just another winter month especially north and west of NYC. To wish for sustained warmth in March is like wishing for sustained cold in September.
 
Off the top of my head I forget the exact figure but something like 5 of the last 8 winters in NYC March has been the snowiest month and north and west a few of those have been epic and I’ve enjoyed every minute. 
 
Now if we could somehow flip flop the great Marchs for the lousy December’s we’ve been having snow wise I’d be all on board. 
 
Just a pet peeve. 

One of my gripes around these parts is not the snow and cold ( which we don't get a ton of ) but the persistent cloudy, cool, wet weather that seems to hang around from Nov to mid May. This makes even mild winters seem way too long; and then, we go right to hot and humid. So we really only see nice weather in Sept and Oct, but in recent years these months have been plagued with tropical systems that make things like ocean fishing impossible. Each year now I have to delay my garden because we get cold snaps right up til June, something I never remembered as a kid. I waited til very late this year and still had to deal with a late cold snap; things like eggplants and peppers don't recover from that. At least the season lasts a little longer in the fall these days.

Cold and dry? Snow to rain storms? The 49ers and Bengals on the cusp of the Super Bowl?




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Thats an amazing look frankly.  968 at the benchmark.  Take the solution all day long.

Watch us get a bowling ball right in the middle of an epic warm stretch in mid/late Feb. Bad luck in good pattern good luck in bad pattern (yeah yeah I know I know multiple waves interference spacing fast flow on and on w/r/t this month).