North and West

Gorgeous retrogression of the current record block north of Iceland to around Baffin Island/Greenland in about 10 days. 
 

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later....

It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I wonder if this is a red flag for what will happen later in the season too.
I can remember another season where this kept happening over and over again and the models kept correcting snowier with the night time model runs.................. 1993-94.
If we see this kind of track and high placement  a lot this winter this may end up being like that winter.

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Memories are that short because the only people remembering past snow events are us weather enthusiasts.


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Correctomundo 

6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation?

Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. 

But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow.

Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

 

 

The issue is preparedness. Hope for best, prepare for the worst.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

You just know for the next system, no matter how minor it is, that officials will overcompensate and probably waste a lot of resources for no reason. 

It happens every time.

Bingo. Storms have ruined many an elected official's career.

Just now, psv88 said:

Trees and branches down all over the place, no bueno. Wild night, but yea, i did not enjoy the commute last night, too much

Craziest thing I saw this morning were abandoned cars. I've never seen that here before.

Just now, CarLover014 said:

I remember that. I was outside shoveling out the chicken coop, I love the eerie quiet in the snow, and you could hear branches snapping in the woods behind me. I got 13 inches in that one

Yea... the trees breaking was like that up here in October 2011. We were crushed in March here with 20" or so and trees branches were down all over.

I would like to avoid a repeat of last night if I can help it.

Just now, psv88 said:

 

We also share blame in this. NAM, EURO, SREFS, HRRR were all showing heavy snow for the area, and for some reason, we all threw them out, even seasoned mets. I remember seeing calls for 5-6" out here, and laughing. The NAM nailed this 24 hours before snow started, and we disregarded it to our peril.

I'm not a pro by any stretch, but doesn't it seem like the NAM has been firing on all cylinders the past few years? Or is it just recency bias?

Just now, psv88 said:

 

That's a different story then. At the least, there should have been early dismissals from school, so the kids werent on the road during the height of rush hour. That falls on local school officials. The real issue is that everyone hit the road at the same time. The downed trees blocking roads didnt help...something you dont usually see

I think it was many bad factors coming together simultaneously, not least of which was poor preparation. One thing I didn't see on my ride home (which was harrowing), thank goodness, were downed trees. We were at 27-28 degrees most of the night during the heaviest precipitation, which allowed the snow to not cling to everything, unlike March 7, 2018.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

When the forecast calls for literally all rain out here, the officials are supposed to have plows on the road? They actually did a great job, as at 2 pm all the way out in suffolk they were salting and sanding. 2" an hour rates at the height of rush hour were the problem. '

Again, a forecast calling for all rain, supposed to have an army of plows on the road. Come on.

Ah - I live in Morris County. The forecast was calling for accumulating snow here for a while; NJ flubbed this one.

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea, blame it on the governor that an unexpected snowstorm hit during rush hour with 2" an hour rates, right as everyone hit the roads. 

I guess the elected officials should have made their own forecasts, independent of literally everyone else, somehow knew that the storm would be much worse than expected, and deployed the DOT well ahead of time. 

Pretty logical.

I disagree; and this goes for each and every elected official that continually screw it up every storm. They're usually too busy pontificating about things that they don't have control over, while ignoring things they do, such as being over-prepared for a storm. And it seems like they always use the NWS or TV Mets as a punching bag/excuse when things go awry or not their way. I *think* it was Bill deBlasio who threw the NWS under the bus a few years back when a storm came in in the morning hours and snarled school buses? And to be equal opportunity, Chris Christie flubbed his first one on Boxing Day 2010, which Michael Bloomberg did as well. 

Trying to take emotion out of it, current elected officials were surprised, but also under-prepared. I didn't see pre-treated roads yesterday nearly to the extent I have in the past; I drive 46 every day.

This sucks. 2 hours and 15 minutes in and four miles to go on a 12 mile commute. Stopped at Dunkin’ Donuts in Parsippany.




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Starting snowing right by CDW.

No snow yet by MMU


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Any thoughts on this system for MMU? I’ve seen varying ranges.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Sooooooo... as an amateur, what's going on? Trying to discern; TIA. 

Hypothetically speaking, if you were to live by MMU and need to commute tomorrow, what should we be expecting? 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-is-getting-more-expensive-and-so-could-heating-bills-1542196800?mod=e2fb
 

tl;dr:

Natural Gas Is Getting More Expensive, and So Could Heating Bills

Investors are bracing for continued gains in natural-gas prices this winter—a development that could pinch U.S. consumers who use the fuel for home heating. The rapid surge has rattled investors and traders, as the market goes into the winter heating season with less supplies in storage than any other year since 2005. Natural-gas prices have climbed more than 50% this year-- with most of that happening since last month-- while crude oil has fallen more than 20% from its October peak.

That should lead to higher heating bills this winter, particularly if temperatures are colder than predicted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural-gas heating bills to rise by 5% compared with last year on higher prices. If the winter is 10% colder than forecasts, the government agency predicts that natural-gas costs will rise by 16%.

Last winter, a severe storm drove natural-gas futures above $3/mmBtu. The Northeast, which lacks the pipelines needed to move natural gas, experienced even sharper price swings, with regional prices surging as high as $175/mmBtu.

“The cold to this extent was not really on anyone’s radar. Now forecasters are scrambling,” said Jacob Meisel, chief weather analyst at Bespoke Weather Services.

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Might get pretty wild under the still-deepening upper low Friday morning. Very steep lapse rates and some CAPE showing up that are aligned with a pressure rise/fall couplet. Dynamic cooling w/ that could lead to some TSSN squalls, probably over higher terrain just W/NW/N of the city in PA, nrn NJ into New England. 

That's nuts if that happens. ::will be cleaning out as many leaves as possible tonight::

Deep Thunder one from earlier.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

worst thing that could ever happen...my neighbors last night were talking about a foot of snow--come on people....

Ha!  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

they're all over social media and people are lapping them up like a thirsty dog.

Correct. That's the nightmare that pops up each and every time there's a storm threat; NJ.com or a similar Patch-like site will pick up on an amateur forecast blog (not like the stable geniuses that populate here) that posts these. Remember the 45" storm that was supposed to arrive a few years ago? It was due to a map like this.

I just heard my third grader exclaim “there’s SNOW in the forecast!” from his room. Glad to see it’s hit the next generation.


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Nino's traditionally have a later start in the east. The exceptions are usually some of our best winters.

Question, because I just got back into the weather follow-up as I've turned my furnace over and the heat has come on at night and in the early morning... why is this year forecast to have a mild December? Thanks.