North and West

On one hand: Im not a fan of chasing these last minute northward trends. The general gist is a snowstorm just south of us…and 24 hours out, that is a good bet
 
On the other hand: I wouldnt discount a northward trend on GFS. What garbage on last storm. That alone can not be baseline for prediction
 
I know its a bad winter, but be careful of wishcasting…
 

we're probably never getting it again

Agreed. The window for “wintry” here IMO is mid-January. As far as the pipe dream that the MJO is going into phase 8….we’ve been hearing that the MJO is going to phase 8 since Halloween now, it’s time for certain people to give that wishcast up, just like the SSW that we’ve been hearing is coming since November and the very weak SPV for Dec, Jan……

On this date, 12/30/2000, 21 years ago,  I witnessed the heaviest snowfall rates I've ever seen, not topped before or since, even with all the great storms that followed over the 20 years to follow.  At its peak, could see two houses down my suburban block, but not three.  I've got non-digital photos somewhere I'll have to find sometime.
Only ended up with about 9-10 inches, at the time a big deal with really only 96, 83, and a fuzzy memory of 78 for reference, with the jackpot 2000/2010s yet to come.  The rain/snow line per radar was a hair to my southeast for the entire event.  What a great storm.
 
 
 

society needs to be run by artificial intelligence take faulty human minds completely out of the equation.
 

jesus christ

found a saw whet owl friend today

It's coming!
 

The frequency of my disappointment in people has internalized my anger. *Silent Internal Scream*

If it's not going to snow let it torch and be 60 degrees

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It may take a SSW to shake up this very persistent ArL regime.
 
 

On the contrary it's great if you want a warm, dry winter.
We're probably gonna be shut out until late winter. Could the entire winter be a dud, sure but still think the blocking comes through late. 
Meanwhile a historic winter is on its way in the Pacific NW. Unusually chilly temperatures down to CA as well.

doing good so far. piece of cake i've had the virus before this time seems a lot more relaxed. the first time it was a rough flu like. now it's barely anything for me, my wife is congested and she's having a flu type symptoms. i'm going to try to move my interview so i don't miss that opportunity and call the other job that hired me i won't be able to make it until next friday as that's when my quarantine ends. hope they understand 

We had about 40 last winter.

I think it's a question of if you're willing to put up with a near perfect snowless winter if you think that next year could be a blockbluster.  I already see comparisons to 2002-03 for next year coming out of the main forum.  Would you guys care if we had a completely snowless winter this year if we could score big next year?  Thats the way it's been happening recently (a streak of great winters after one nearly snowless winter, it's happened multiple times since 2001-02.)
 

Zero percent chance any of this verifies, but.... WOW. What a map!
 
 

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They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining


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We have so many of these indices and indicators that it seems like a zoo of nonsense now.  This is like where chemistry was before there was a periodic table or particle physics was before we knew about quarks.  All of this needs to be reduced to 3 or 4 primary indicators, I'm sure the rest just emerge from the basic 3 or 4, and use the primary ones to predict everything.  It's like with these weather models there are way too many of them, just shut down the worst performing ones and go with the 3-4 best ones.
 

Is there a cheat sheet available for the regular folk among us for what all of these terms mean? (e.g., MJO, what does it spell out, one sentence descriptor)




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Pretty soon they'll be spraying chlorox from helicopters right onto the streets like they did in 2020 in Italy
 

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It’s mid December and there’s still a number of fully leaved trees like this in my neighborhood. I think the warmth in September and October really confused some of the trees. 

12Z GFS completely different from last nights 0Z regarding the 21st storm