North and West

Heh.
Getting fringed by a few miles stings, especially in cases of last-minute shifts. We have none of that here... we're divorced spatially from the storm by 600 miles, and it was never on the table for our region. It's just so abstractified that there should be no emotion at all. Like watching a hurricane churn away at 130W in the middle of the Pacific. Why not just be happy for those guys? You know some 13 year old weenie in the CLT burbs is making memories to last a lifetime over the next 18 hours

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


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does anyone remember the cutters we got in December 2000 and 2010...there were two in 2000...12/14 and 12/17...temps maxed out at 50 and 62 respectively...12/12/2010 got one and temps maxed out at 56...heavy rain both years...cutters sometimes come first.

Yeah um that’s going to destroy an epic start to the ski season

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

Eh, not that I have any science behind it (I don't), but we do tend to search for the negative reinforcements. I was just mentioning the other day, we'd be fretting if this was like 2015, with lots of warmth, and scant indication of a big January storm.

anyway, history can rhyme, but it doesn't always repeat itself.

41 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I am a bit older than you, and I don’t think I had more than 2 snow days on LI while going to school.   We did have some storms of greater than one foot, but they seemingly always occurred on a vacation.  My kids think snow days are a given due to the propensity for big storms now

Bingo. My older son kinda "mehs" at what I consider a moderate storm, such as this past November 15th. He asks when we can expect another January 2016 or March 2018 event, as if they're a dime a dozen.

10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

So much for any December warmup. Aside from any short lived warm punches ahead of a cutter it looks like we generally stay below normal with at least the chance of something frozen from now through the holiday week.  

The lack of precipitation reminds me of the winters of my elementary school years, which were 1987-1993. Good times for winter. (I lied)

I remember being over the moon getting an entire foot of snow in March 1993 towards the end of fifth grade. It was our first snow day in years. Now my kids have already had one this year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ask him about November-December 1989 thats what this reminds me of.

Sadly, I remember that one vividly, along with the warmth that crashed in on New Year's Eve. 

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the cold is pretty pointless if it's not going to snow

It's good though to help control insect populations.

Other than that, it's boring.

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was our historic 50 degree +13 December. We still got one of my all-time favorite snowstorms a month later. Followed by the first below 0 in NYC since 1994 in February. 

That's how it goes sometimes. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Even missing out on the storm next week, NYC will still have one of the higher snowfall totals since 2009 by around the solstice.

NYC snowfall by 12-21 since 2009:

#1....10.9....2009

#2....8.6......2013

#3....7.0......2017

#4...6.4.......2018...so far

#5...4.7........2012

#6...3.2........2016

#7...2.9........2011

#8...1.2........2014

#9...0.1........2010

#10..0.0.......2015

 

 

Thanks, interesting stat! 2015 was warm, right? 

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, it looks like we'll see our driest stretch in a while with this current more suppressed pattern. But the ensembles are indicating a relaxation of this suppression around mid-December with a possible rain and wind maker. Cold and dry has been one of our rarest combinations recently. 

Longer term, we always seem to find a way to to end up with above normal snow during this decade. But the way we get there could be unusual like it often is each year.

Honestly, not that I'm a fan of it from an excitement level, but it seems like we haven't had weather like this in a while; sustained cold and dry. I remember my dad mentioning that it was like this in 1976-1977; not sure if anyone can confirm those recollections.

I think it's good, too, from the aspect of allowing low-lying, flood-prone areas to dry out, and to help manage insect populations. 

Not exciting, but it's life.

Just now, bluewave said:

It's a very anomalous set up with the frozen precip getting forced so far to the south in early December. Probably have to wait until we get within the NAM's range for the interior SE/MA break down on snow/sleet/ and freezing rain amounts. 

Thanks. tl;dr: don't mention anything to my kids about any potential snow.

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro continuing with one of the strongest early December CAD events for the interior SE/MA with the storm system Sat-Tue. Just goes to show what can happen with a near record breaking 200kt  jet forced south across our area.

New record for OKX if the 200kt jet streak  verifies this strong.

 

What does this mean for the layman? I always enjoy reading your posts, so forgive my lack of expertise.

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah I mentioned that 00z gem run from Monday night had a very similar h5 evolution. NAM FWIW is a bit further south 12z run but the trough axis could be worse.

From what I'm reading, sounds like it'll pass south of us? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was just streaming the state funeral of President Bush; looks chilly in DC!

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My fear is we do see the NW trend. But just not enough. And we see DCA over to ACY get a decent hit while we partly cloudy.

It happens, though. Next time we get a nice hit, they'll have sleet and rain.

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The large differences in both the 500 mb pattern evolution and sensible weather outcomes among the guidance suggests that significant uncertainty still exists for the storm that could affect parts of the East during the coming weekend. The 0z and 12z ECMWF snowfall outputs were also vastly different (the former showing 11" at Raleigh and the latter showing 3").

For now, there remains a strong consensus that low pressure will develop and tap moisture as it tracks near the Gulf Coast late this weekend into the coming weekend. Afterward, it will gradually turn east-northeast and move off either the Georgia or South Carolina coasts.

As a result, cities such as Pensacola and Tallahassee could again receive a major rainfall. During the December 1-3 period, Pensacola picked up 5.17" rain and Tallahassee received 7.92". Another 1"-2" (possibly more depending on the development and possible training of thunderstorms) seems reasonable for those two cities from the storm in question.

Farther north, the potential for accumulating snow exists for parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Given the lack of model consensus, my preference remains the EPS (0z EPS continued to show a 500 mb pattern conducive to some past significant snowfalls in the lower Middle Atlantic and parts of the Southeast). Thus, my continuing expectation is that the storm will take a gradual turn more to the north once it moves offshore, but the turn will likely be too wide to bring more than a light snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, if that.

However, nothing is cast in stone at this lead time. The 12z GGEM still shows a potent snow threat to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. For now, though, the 500 mb pattern currently forecast on the EPS suggests that a GGEM-type scenario is a lower (not zero) probability than the one in which the storm largely or wholly limits its snows to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Still, things can change given the amount of time involved. Further, regardless of the outcome, winter 2018-19 remains on track to be a snowy one in the Middle Atlantic, parts of the Great Lakes, and southern New England regions.

Finally, toward mid-month, milder conditions appear likely to develop. An EPO+/AO+ combination is forecast to develop as the MJO progresses through Phases 2 and 3 (Canadian and European ensembles; the former shows a faster progression).

Nice writeup. I would think this is a promising sign for an active winter as well, considering it's December 3rd.

42 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

My footage from High tide this morning in Howard Beach, Queens. 

 

Yikes - be safe!

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.

Isn't this an annual rite of passage each winter?

This is going to be the type of winter with great periods and breaks. Wall to wall is almost impossible now. The good news is there is a ton of snow cover to our north and that should help with localized cold generation in southern Canada. I was just in Vermont this weekend and there was a serious snow pack for November 
 

The big difference is scientists aren’t forecasting a 100-200 square mile area when they are forecasting the temperature rise. It is very hard to pinpoint weather conditions, but easier to forecast global temperatures. Even though we are cold, much of the globe is still above normal, and that above normal blob is larger than the cold blob. Basically it is easy to say that it will snow somewhere in December than it is to say Central Park will receive 3-6 inches in December 16th, 2018. Scientists can look at species movements and see how the rise in greenhouse gases will change the weather in the future in the general sense. 

Also remember the current late November NAO drop below -1 has been associated with colder and snowier potential in December since 1995. 

  http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

2017 11 20 -1.293.....Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

2010 11 26 -2.632.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Dec/Jan....-AO

 

2008 11 30 -1.823.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Feb..-AO

 

2005 11 25 -2.181.....Dec/Feb/Mar...-NAO..Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar....-AO

 

2002 11 23 -1.025.....Dec...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

 

2000 11 27 -1.216.....Dec/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-AO

 

1997 11 30 -1.932.....Dec/Feb...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

1996 11 19 -1.851.....Dec/Jan...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

 

1995 11 16 -1.751.....Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

.

I wouldn't be overly concerned about a 1989-1990-style repeat. There's a lot that's different this time around i.e., ENSO, SSTAs, etc.

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

True, though this reminded of it being brutally cold last November on one Friday and how cold the day prior to Thanksgiving was in 2002. So we have that going for us, which is nice.