North and West

Clouds will increase tomorrow as a bomb cyclone takes shape off the southeastern U.S. That storm will move northward and bring blizzard conditions to parts of Long Island and eastern New England. During the height of the storm, winds could gust past 60 mph in that region with temperatures falling into the teens. Visibilities will decrease to 1/8 mile or less. Moderate to heavy snow will reach Newark and New York City for at least a time, but the heaviest amounts will fall east of those areas.
Snowfall estimates:
Boston: 12"-24"
Bridgeport: 6"-12"
Islip: 8"-16"
New York City: 4"-8"
Newark: 4"-8"
Philadelphia: 3"-6"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
During the January 15-February 15, 1950-2021 period, 37% of Boston's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred during an AO+/PNA+ pattern. In contrast, just 12% of New York City's and 10% of Philadelphia's 10" or greater snowstorms have occurred with such a pattern. Not surprisingly, for New York City and Newark to reach 10" or more, one will need the storm to phase somewhat farther to the west than is currently modeled.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.
The SOI was +13.67 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.704.
On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.910 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.953 (RMM).
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal).
 

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Any consensus yet west of the city? I’m trying to figure out if I’m using my leafblower for this or to break out the sunglasses.


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Me trying to figure out if there will be any snow in my backyard this weekend.


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Its interesting that in this day and age there are still people that don't know how to crop their screenshots.

I just posed this in the storm thread, but maybe one of you guys knows the answer to this. (And I’m due west of the city):

One of the few non-anecdotal stats I I know from reading the boards for 20+ years is that it's tough to get 10+" of snow in NYC and points south with a +AO and +NAO.

There are obvious exceptions (March 1993) of course, but… Why would this be different?

TIA. Solely wondering out of curiosity.


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Rgem is still nice 

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This would come from 20:1 ratios.  Do you really think the ratios go that high?

if you guys 5-post me i will use each of those posts every day comparing whatever is happening to Sandy
"it was partly cloudy and 52 degrees just like this 4 days before Sandy"
then i will post the 240-hr HRRR with three randomly-selected emojis

Good late afternoon all. I hope no one minds if I stay here awhile. I’m getting too old to spend extended time in the storm thread. As always

I could read this entire storm thread with Sarah McLachlan’s Angel playing in the background.


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If this really becomes a suppressed garbage storm again like the one we recently missed that hit SE VA/Delmarva like the NAM has it this run, I'll just crack up. That would make this winter rival 11-12. 01-02, 19-20 level of fail, despite the one lucky storm we had early this month. And I'll be on the 'warm us up and just get this god awful thing over with' train.

Yup.  Nothing grinds my gears worse than labor disputes in sports.  Billionaires vs. millionaires.  Maybe I'm oversimplifying it for my argument but I don't think people on either side of the aisle are hurting financially.  Figure something out FFS.  

Just hoping that the MLB and MLBPA get their act together so we can have a normal baseball season and have something to look forward to.  Winter is dead in the water at this point.  

I'm really believing the it snows where it wants to snow thing. Somehow ACY is probably going to get more snow than NYC out of this. 

Of course, I would love to see a big snowstorm here, but I’m content with knowing I’ve seen a bunch already in my lifetime. (Heck, last February was the snowiest month I’ve ever seen in my own backyard, 40”+)

It’s good to remind ourselves we can’t control it, and at least we may not have to deal with aftereffects (flooding, mud, the like).


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There’s a certain level of catharsis exhibited in some of the more prolific posts; every storm it never fails.
 
Model jumping, and then projecting the worst outcome each time, with the underlying hope that said poster is wrong. 

North n West = me would take this,,,,lets see what other guidance says today and moving forward

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

You would think that people would learn but it never fails and happens with just about every storm---Yes ,I am pulling for snow but that said it is only Wednesday and this nice looking storm does not occur until LATE Friday night = do you really believe that there will not be changes on the upcoming model runs ? Is a solution that is OVER 48 more like over 60 hours away written in stone ? Me either,,,,the runs tonight showed a nice storm still out there

Going off of absolutely nothing except recent experience and 30+ years of watching this, this is probably not a storm that hits my immediate area that hard (MMU and Morris County). I think someone mentioned the way the low gets here, and the way it’s forecasted to go favors eastern sections.

Not looking to be a Debbie Downer, just looking to be realistic. Hope I’m wrong. Still only Tuesday, so I would hold off the excitement or disappointment for another day.


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Also from 18Z EPS the probabilities for 18"+ is 40-45% over east central NJ and 30% in and around NYC metro.  Not shabby for 72-84 hours out.  Again, strong signal.