North and West

Choose your adventure:
1) 500mb looks epic, the surface has to respond
2) meteorology not modelology
3) ratios will be good, don't worry about QPF
 

I want this as the new Live, Laugh, Love sign.


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It did start in Morristown. Interesting to see if it will be a push broom, leaf blower, or snow blower amount.


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It does spread some decent snow inland for a while. Morristown looked like 0.5-0.6 liquid which would be warning amounts. 

It would be kinda neat to see if where the cutoff is at this very moment doesn’t budge any further. Just neat from watching storms like this for years. It’s five miles away from me.


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it's all I have at this point...

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This entire thread should be speed read from the beginning to the Yakety Sax theme.


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Good evening all. The storm thread is amazing. I know it’s hard to believe but it’s generating pages faster than Liberty can post. As always …

rclab, you’re pretty knowledgeable… what are we to believe? Why should I believe these randos versus the NWS?

It’s crazy and it’s beautiful simultaneously.


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What if you're right in the right direction?

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As long as I don’t lose power, yeah… I’ve been kind of a wind weenie since Sandy happened when I was a kid (well not that im exactly old lol). I would take snow rates over wind though any day

Jesus, “when I was a kid” in 2012.




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what a awful horrible month for snow in nyc it could have been the greatest ..so many chances and it just did not work out..who would have thought that southern coastal new jersey will have a better year in snow totals then nyc..

Isn’t that kinda why we like it, though? To see the unexpected?


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That seems reasonable to me, I wouldn't go above 4" even down there.

Thanks!

Won’t deny that I wouldn’t love a big storm - but - we’ve had a lot in recent memory which satiates me, and if we get their 3-6” forecast (really, it’s 4 to 11 in my write up from them), that’s fine for the kids and dog to play around in. We had almost 4’ in my backyard last February and that was too much for them to have fun.


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I guess if it doesn’t work out, we can move our focus to the warm temperatures and flood risk for mid-week?



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I'll be happy enough with 5+inches at this point, enough for the kids to go sledding and have fun on Sunday. Anything more is gravy (Thanksgiving style, the good stuff)

I’m making meatballs tomorrow, so there’s that.


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You guys have a prediction for down here for MMU? I think NWS is solid at 4. Not sure if I should expect more or less. Thanks.


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Although snow coming down at better clip, not really sticking any longer with sun/temps prob just above freezing

Sun angle!


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About 15 miles west of me



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Got about a fluffy surprise inch (ATWSS) this morning at MMU. Roads are fine from what I can see.


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[mention=15837]North and West[/mention] I think 4-6/6-8 for Morris County, lower totals out my way. Plowable likely.
I have .25” now, with light snow. I’ll be honest that I didn’t see this morning snizzle. 

Thanks. It’s been snowing here conversationally most of the morning.

Interesting to see where this sets up. Wonder if the cut off is over me, or you, or maybe further west.

Though I will say this, and it’s my anecdotal evidence for 35+ years of watching this: every - and I mean every - single big winter storm would creep up the numbers continuously. Always. And forever.

This one’s doing the same, but I still don’t trust it with the +NAO and +AO… though the NAO is falling closer to neutral, so maybe that’s helped nudge it west.




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I gotta go to the store now. The day before a “snowstorm”. Gonna have to fight some old lady for bread and milk. Wish me luck.

YOU DON’T NEED THIS HELEN, I DO


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Are the cold temperatures aloft combined with snow starting at night enough to overcome the sun angle?

Wanted to be sure to ask.


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Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but is there any concern about flooding in coastal areas mid to late next week?




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For we in the north and west, impressive moves in the most recent runs, yet the inner weenie screaming inside can’t help but notice the 20” drop off from NYC out to Bridgewater on the NAM. I mean, that’s about 25 miles as the crow flies; highlights the sharp-cut off that has been modeled for days. Oh well you guys East are going to get crushed!!!
I want to see a “mother of god” post; it’s been too long.
….back to containing the weenie thoughts internally. 

Do you think we get plowable snow in Morris County?


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Wind and ice are the two things I don't really look forward to anymore. I don't need the problems or the danger.

100% agree.

Only thing I like about not getting snow in Morristown out of this storm (I had an awesome February last year, and a lot of other storms in recent decades to enjoy) is (hopefully) not losing power and heat.

Someone will lose power and heat out of this with these forecasted winds, and that is dangerous.


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you gotta text her more than that.  send her a pic of the ol' rain gauge

Legitimately laughed out loud.

My wife gets a kick out of this time of year and when she hears it’s going to snow, she’ll ask, “What do the weenies think?”


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Upton just updated the snow forecast... WOW

lol

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