North and West

They been missing storms to the north, east and south for years now. We cant get every storm. 

Woke up to a gorgeous 1/4" layer of pixie dust on everything and it's snowing lightly, but likely to stop soon. Better go stock up on milk and bread, lol. Could get a little bit m ore later this morning. Nice to at least see a little bit. Reports of a few inches south of Philly to Toms River and up to 6" in DC so far. Time to go play soccer...

It could be signaling that some part of the wider Northeast region has a shot at an extended icy overrunning event. Models won’t be able to pintpoint the latitude more than several days ahead of time. Battle of the cold -EPO and slight warming influence from the MJO heading at least to weak amplitude 4-5. The best we have been able to do on ice this decade was 2-2-11. Before that it was 2-14-07. But nothing so far has been able to rival Jan 94. The Jan 98 ice storm was record breaking to our north near upstate NY and Canada.

?? You apparently haven't seen the overflow dams up here still running strongly. When it pops above freezing and the ground surface thaws it will still be muddy. We don't need more rain here.

Oh goody more rain  

"Alpine countries across Europe are battling record snowfalls that have claimed the lives of over a dozen people and severed road and air access to entire communities."  https://www.wsj.com/articles/snowbound-europe-struggles-to-dig-out-after-latest-storm-11547220680

"Meteorologists said the crisis was shaping up to be the most intense snowfall in a century.

Alexander Radlherr of Austria’s official meteorological service said the intensity of snowfall is measured by totalling the amount that falls in a 24-hour period over several consecutive days.

In some regions around Salzburg in Austria that amount is exceeding three meters at an altitude of 800 meters, approaching levels that were last seen a century ago, Mr. Radlherr said in a statement.

While the weather cleared on Friday, more heavy snowfalls were forecast for Sunday across the Alps. In some regions of Austria, the snow levels reached the 4-meter-mark this week."

23 minutes ago, tmagan said:

I do, it was called the 1980's.

and early 1990s!

I don't remember which winter it was but we kept having shots of dry cold weather for days followed by rain, rinse repeat all winter. That is the worst.

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Yeah I grew up so envious of those living "north & west." 3" events in the city was enough to make me happy back then. That what I grew up under so like most things, ppl use there formative years as the baseline for the rest of their life. All these big snow events on a regular basis in the 2000s has been a dream come true, but I never got confortable with it. I feel it can end any time lol. 

Bingo. And I am North and West... but not enough. When I was a kid, it felt like truly it was only Sussex County Specials. 

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nothing worse than last year-took the ball fields here til May to really dry out...

Yup. My kids just began some weekend indoor clinics, and they're aching to get outside. Last spring was awful.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

give the hype about this being a banner year for snow and cold, the disappointment is easy to see...

Sure, though I'm (hoping) that my yard is not a muddied mess by March, along with the baseball fields in April, 

I'm anticipating that won't be the case though, whether it's from snow or rain.

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Euro didn't trend north.  There is more overrunning on this run.

Euro is 2-4 for nyc south with ratios

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sometimes a year isn't meant to be. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46780856


yikes. I guess that's where the snow and cold is.

14 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Yeah. I agree. Keep a good distance away from this one. The position of the tPV is the deal breaker with this one.

What's TPV? It sounds like something you don't want to be diagnosed with. And can we pin an acronym list somewhere?

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you leave off the November snowstorm, then the 12/1 to 1/7 meteorological winter snowfall is near the bottom of the list for NYC.

1	2012-01-07	0.0	0
-	2007-01-07	0.0	0
-	1871-01-07	0.0	0
4	2019-01-07	T	1
-	2016-01-07	T	0
-	2000-01-07	T	0
-	1998-01-07	T	0
-	1997-01-07	T	0
-	1995-01-07	T	0
-	1973-01-07	T	0
-	1966-01-07	T	0
-	1889-01-07	T	0
-	1886-01-07	T	0
14	1975-01-07	0.1	0

 

 

Yea, though it feels like we've been due for this, right? I know it doesn't make statistical sense and the atmosphere doesn't work like that, but it feels like we've needed something to balance it out. 

December 30, 2000 and February 8, 1994 for Morris County. The recent years have been very good, but not far enough in my memory to be nostalgic for them.


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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time

I would not mind that after the snow we received in Morris County last March (we had at least 40", when you count April 2nd, give or take). Of course, super fun to watch it happen... not so fun when the little league fields aren't playable yet, or your backyard is muddy, or the kids just want to go outside. 

It would bemuse me if we had a Red Flag warning in March or April (we usually do) if it turns warmer, if only after all of this rain.

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

First time ever I'm looking forward to a warm and dry winter. I had a pretty significant heart attack on Friday afternoon then a bunch of complications and I'm pretty much laid up for the next two months. No shoveling means I want no snow. Sorry all...  

Glad you're with us! If it does snow, enjoy it from your window.

I know we all enjoy storms and cold and all that, buuuuuutttt... this happens. This reminds me of my elementary school childhood. We've been so spoiled since 1994 (I know, I know, there have been some hateful clunkers in there) with cold and snow, we can't control it. 

I wish that we could have fun storms each and every year (just prior to Christmas would be nice), but life doesn't work like that. 

22 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. 

Correct. 

Very true,  we have had winter extend into late March----the worst scenario

happy 18th anniversary to the storm that got me interested in snow

.

I highly disagree. All it takes is the right gradient pattern and a stream of storms. It’s a long shot but not impossible.