North and West

Glad it over performed on snow but under on the wind. We all know wind gust maps are overdone but the 0z NAM last night really caught my atttion but thankfully it was really out to lunch at least around here. 

Impressed… completely unexpected. 
 
still below freezing and 8” otg

Still snowing hard here at 10 pm @ MMU


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28° and snowing at a good clip at MMU


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Widespread mid and upper 20s in NENJ, even into central Morris County. I was hoping the relatively cold surface temps in MD and SEPA would translate up to our area, but they haven't. It's definitely warmer than I was hoping as the light snow begins. Close proximity to the Ocean.

This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution.  

Amazing how the Euro went from snowmageddon to nosnowatall in one model run, lol

Okay, I understand Moderators general hands off.  Thank you all for your strong support.
I have a couple of goals in mind when threads are started. To ensure an impact storm occurs or is real close (ACY 10" 1/3 but bust up here),  and to highlight the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the many different models physics up to 7 days in advance. Finally, that the impact will include NYC where snow and ice in winter is at a premium. If it's I84 only, I lay off.
Believe me: It takes plenty of time to figure things out and my time is also precious and so I definitely  do not want the membership to be torn away from family for just some weather, especially since so much can go wrong more than 60 hours in advance.
I am confident that the 1 day forecast accuracy when I was growing up in nw NJ in 1960 is now valid as accurate to 5 days in 2022.  To me, this is dedication of researchers and the financial support of platforms-computer power.  Like it or not, there is valuable information well in advance that can prepare the interested consumer to mitigate adverse impact be it winter storms, firestorms, hurricanes, 10+" rains.  Some of our posters are able to mine the gold and share some pretty cool stuff- we're fortunate to share these advance notice posts.
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Will post Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by  coldest weather of the season around the 24th.  I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid.  921A/16

This is much more typical because we have an ocean to our east.
Do you remember 1993-94?  Before we had those February snows, we had a storm in late January that came the night after a morning low of 0 (the second zero or subzero arctic outbreak that month, which is exceptional).  Anyway by midnight the temp was already 32.....so we had a high of 32 after a low of 0 that morning lol.  Then we got blasted by a SE gale and temps reached 55 the next day..... so we went from 0 to 32 in 18 hours and from 0 to 55 in 30 hours lol.
It's just how this region is, you really need to thread the needle to get a snowstorm here, regardless of how cold it is before the storm.
 

agreed all the  fear mongers saying this was a event of the pinatubo scale what are they smoking..

Just in time for spring….
it takes several months for the cooling to occur. 

Think that getting a large eruption caught in the act by a very capable satellite is what these scientists dream about..
That said, Krakatoa was much more devastating, perhaps because it was in a more settled space. But also the shock wave was recorded sweeping the earth repeatedly, so a much larger amplitude event.
 

Youre old af 
 
i was in 8th grade. Our middle school overlooked the hudson, and i’d stare out and watch the ice every day lol

I’m kinda surprised although I shouldn’t be at the number of folks that can’t fathom the huge swing in temps coming up.  

Wow
 

Our key to a successful February

I lean more towards let’s see what actually happens. I was never one to stay up late to wait on models runs in the middle of the night. As you point out, to each their own. 

I still can't believe that this low is going way inland from starting off way down south. Classic coastal look.
And to think we will all be in the single digits tomorrow morning.

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

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Nice old fashioned 80s type of storm right there
 

I will be EXTREMELY PO'D if after all this all I get is a power outage to deal with.

It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed [mention=4098]sferic[/mention] moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. 
We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.

At first this storm looked really flat
Then it looked good and now it's too far inland. Being a coastie is really tough.
We need a great pattern for us.