Waiting on snow

Seems like those always popped up at 3 days out or so.

In the past that seemed to be a good way to get a snow here. If that's the case with this one it still has legs I'm sure. Can't expect the models to catch that at this range I wouldn't think.

I'm guessing it was on this front after it cleared the area then?

Why look at op runs past 7 days? Hell even past 5 days! I'm sure next weekend won't workout. Cold chasing moisture never does and that surely won't change now. I'm as pessimistic about snow as they come. And I'm sure we'll screw it up. At least SC will. But the pattern after next weekend is as good as any to cash in. Why do we need a -NAO? Haven't had one in almost a decade and it's snowed.

I wouldn't worry too much. It has a 1052 high in upstate NY and it cuts and we rain? Yeah right!!

Welcome back to reality! December spoiled people. This one is a painful reminder that this is the south!

Boy this thread died quickly!!

What amazing pattern change? All I see is more of the same. Very marginal temps at best and miller b storms!

Yep! Time to gas up the failboat! It'll be busy the next couple weeks. Smh

Yes I think it was day 6 or so. The FV3 ran the surface low into KY an few times.

Bustardi's negative 3-5 for the winter will likely bust. What's new? CLT was +3.4 for December and the first half of Jan will be even higher than that. Going to have to be sustained cold the back half just to get down to average.

I don't know about that. Apparently it is not doing so well. It nailed the December storm, but overall is worse than the old GFS from reading the Mid Atlantic board.

Whoever fails next weekend should get more chances if that look even tries to verify in the long range.

There should be some good hits on the GEFS. Nice to see winter starting to gain signs of life again.

I agree with Feb. Not sure it lasts into March though. Pac puke is the most stable pattern it seems in winter. As someone above posted the good patterns are always transient and rarely last more than 2 weeks.

As always. Pattern flip will come mid March.

The writing is on the wall here. January is toast. I posted last week that when GSP gets an inch or more in December January was a shutout in all but 10-11 and 17-18. And 10-11 was late Dec and early Jan and was from the same pattern, so not really the same. Feb is not lost but the two recent years the Pac jet got this strong it ruined the whole winter. 11-12 and 16-17. If the 0Z EPS is even close at the end of it's run January is toast. You don't transition from that crap to a decent pattern quickly.

Yes I learned years ago to pay him no attention. Which is sad because he has forgotten more than I'll ever know. But he has an agenda and also a paid site. He has to hype. Sometimes I wonder if he actually believes what he says.

Bastardi is using December 65, 84 and 94 as analogs to this strat warming. Apparently extreme cold followed. But did those winters feature a raging Pac jet to f**k it up like this year has?

When was the last time the Pac firehose was this hostile in January and actually flip to a good pattern before March? It would be comforting to know it's possible. I only remember 11-12 and 16-17 and both were epic dumpster fires the rest of the way. Different enso but still same disgusting Pacific.

That's a very weird look on the west coast and shows how the model is struggling with the Pacific. Trying to pop a west coast ridge and still maintain the AK vortex? Lol but I hope it's a step in the right direction because the rest up top looks good.

Yes. This is a very stable puke pattern in the Pacific. Always is when you deal with the AK vortex and raging Pac jet. Guarantee you it'll last 4-6 weeks at least. That's middle to the end of January before any improvement at least. Good thing it started in mid December so Feb may can be salvaged. But I have seen that pattern ruin an entire winter. 11-12 comes to mind. Different enso and different drivers but same Pac puke pattern. 16-17 also comes to mind. Super Nino but still the same Pac look that never changed. Be thankful for the snow in December. May be all you get.

I don't remember any blocking at all that year. Raging positive NAO I thought. Started very similar to this year. Early snow around Halloween that year. Then endless crap after. This year was also an early snow although the pattern waited a little longer to go to crap this year. Enso was different that year but the modeled EPS looks just like that god awful disaster that year.

I fully agree. 15 day dream patterns never verify. 15 day god awful patterns are always spot on. Just how it is anymore. I would love to see how many years had the Pacific firehose lock in and then reverse? My guess is not many. That is one of the most stable features of a winter pattern from my observations. Maybe someone can prove me wrong.

I'm turning the lights on in here. Would say turn the heat on but it probably won't be needed anytime soon. I remember saying even before our December snow that we better hope the AK trough doesn't become established as it was being modeled. Well it has and its ruining the heart of winter now. Amazing how all the long range awful patterns come to fruition and the eye candy patterns always evaporate. Smfh