Waiting on snow

6z was a fluke. Back to reality! Big rainer on tap next Thursday.

I'll take the heat ridge over rainstorms between Arctic fronts anyday.

He's not near the coast. He's a prisoner of the 85 down to I20 screwzone and he hasn't picked up more than a dusting in 5 years!

So I can contribute something useful, I do like the look of this on the Euro. Low over S Texas with sprawling high pressure up top. But where's the long advertised NAO? Hopefully that's not warning shots that it won't materialize. Shocker if it doesn't I know. But we've scored without it for the better part of a decade so who cares?

Yeah a rainstorm!!

That's definitely correct. It's hard for me to be optimistic about snow in the Carolina's regardless of the pattern. Lol

That is true! Let's hope we don't have to wait too long. I've had my seasonal average but it's still frustrating when you swing and miss close by! But there are a lot of areas south and east of 85 that are in a multi year snow drought!!

Well, someone just posted clippers in the discussion thread. If that's what we have to rely on to save this pattern change, well....I don't need to say more. Lol

The silence in here at 12z is deafening. I know its an op run but it looks pretty dry after we rain twice.

It may be wise to buy stock in Fresh Step. I'll be using my fair share in the next month!

It would certainly be wrong if it showed cold and snow. But a 384 op run can nail a torch at that range. Smdh

Can't wait for this awesome pattern where we get to rain, freeze to death, warm up and rain, freeze to death again and repeat over and over again. What a shit fest!

Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure.

I lucked out for the Dec storm 3 miles n of 85. But couldn't really enjoy the lead up because being on the edge you just knew you were getting screwed. And 20 miles south of me did. Feel bad for Simpsonville, Anderson and especially the ATL to CAE corridor. Sometimes I wonder if it'll ever snow down there again. Can't wait for the storm where the snow line is past CAE and all we have to figure out is how much we'll get. If that storm ever comes.

Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday. Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times.

The south of 85 crew will definitely be posting here though.

Regardless of how cold it gets I think its gonna be very hard for JB to be right with his negative 3-5.

I agree with what you say about op models. I can't speak for anyone but me, but this is the south. I always look for the fly in the ointment and it's usually there. When it comes to winterstorms I usually ride the warmest least snowy model because it's usually right. As far as pattern changes I'll believe it when it actually happens. Especially the phantom NAO that always shows up never to materialize. I'm hoping the MJO is not the fly in the ointment now. When it was last in the warm phases and forecast to hit 7 and 8 it took awhile for the ensembles to show it. They had an endless torch and gradually went to colder. Now it's the opposite and I'm hoping the ensembles don't start backing away on any cold pattern once they recognize the MJO in the warm phases. But as I said, that's just me. I'm not a pro by any means. I just look for what can go wrong because it usually does down here.

That's about as ugly as it gets. If the MJO was the primary driver behind the dumpster fire for the past month this isn't good.

Pattern change 2 weeks away again. Wow that's a shocker! Wouldn't have seen that coming!

In reality there is no perfect pattern for the Carolinas outside the mountains. Sure we had no shot for the last month. But I'd say our chances going forward are equal with a good Pac and no Atlantic help, or with Atlantic help. The NAO can be a double edged sword. It can slow things down just enough for the wave to amplify and go negative sooner which almost always ends bad for us. The exception is very strong blocking to keep an amped wave suppressed. But that is the exception rather than the rule. I understand all models look show the block developing. But strength to be determined.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

I'm not sure. I'd say it's always a concern in the south anytime a tele is unfavorable. I guess it would depend on how strong it is in the unfavorable phases and how quick it gets through them. A lot of people think the MJO is what ruined our pattern for the last month and lead to the dreadful Pacific.

Looks amazing!! The Pacific I can buy. But what's the chances the -NAO isn't just a phantom? We've seen that modeled dozens of times the last few years only to never materialize.