Waiting on snow

Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday. Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times.

The south of 85 crew will definitely be posting here though.

Regardless of how cold it gets I think its gonna be very hard for JB to be right with his negative 3-5.

I agree with what you say about op models. I can't speak for anyone but me, but this is the south. I always look for the fly in the ointment and it's usually there. When it comes to winterstorms I usually ride the warmest least snowy model because it's usually right. As far as pattern changes I'll believe it when it actually happens. Especially the phantom NAO that always shows up never to materialize. I'm hoping the MJO is not the fly in the ointment now. When it was last in the warm phases and forecast to hit 7 and 8 it took awhile for the ensembles to show it. They had an endless torch and gradually went to colder. Now it's the opposite and I'm hoping the ensembles don't start backing away on any cold pattern once they recognize the MJO in the warm phases. But as I said, that's just me. I'm not a pro by any means. I just look for what can go wrong because it usually does down here.

That's about as ugly as it gets. If the MJO was the primary driver behind the dumpster fire for the past month this isn't good.

Pattern change 2 weeks away again. Wow that's a shocker! Wouldn't have seen that coming!

In reality there is no perfect pattern for the Carolinas outside the mountains. Sure we had no shot for the last month. But I'd say our chances going forward are equal with a good Pac and no Atlantic help, or with Atlantic help. The NAO can be a double edged sword. It can slow things down just enough for the wave to amplify and go negative sooner which almost always ends bad for us. The exception is very strong blocking to keep an amped wave suppressed. But that is the exception rather than the rule. I understand all models look show the block developing. But strength to be determined.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

I'm not sure. I'd say it's always a concern in the south anytime a tele is unfavorable. I guess it would depend on how strong it is in the unfavorable phases and how quick it gets through them. A lot of people think the MJO is what ruined our pattern for the last month and lead to the dreadful Pacific.

Looks amazing!! The Pacific I can buy. But what's the chances the -NAO isn't just a phantom? We've seen that modeled dozens of times the last few years only to never materialize.

Seems like those always popped up at 3 days out or so.

In the past that seemed to be a good way to get a snow here. If that's the case with this one it still has legs I'm sure. Can't expect the models to catch that at this range I wouldn't think.

I'm guessing it was on this front after it cleared the area then?

Why look at op runs past 7 days? Hell even past 5 days! I'm sure next weekend won't workout. Cold chasing moisture never does and that surely won't change now. I'm as pessimistic about snow as they come. And I'm sure we'll screw it up. At least SC will. But the pattern after next weekend is as good as any to cash in. Why do we need a -NAO? Haven't had one in almost a decade and it's snowed.

I wouldn't worry too much. It has a 1052 high in upstate NY and it cuts and we rain? Yeah right!!

Yes I think it was day 6 or so. The FV3 ran the surface low into KY an few times.

Bustardi's negative 3-5 for the winter will likely bust. What's new? CLT was +3.4 for December and the first half of Jan will be even higher than that. Going to have to be sustained cold the back half just to get down to average.

I don't know about that. Apparently it is not doing so well. It nailed the December storm, but overall is worse than the old GFS from reading the Mid Atlantic board.

Whoever fails next weekend should get more chances if that look even tries to verify in the long range.

There should be some good hits on the GEFS. Nice to see winter starting to gain signs of life again.

As always. Pattern flip will come mid March.

The writing is on the wall here. January is toast. I posted last week that when GSP gets an inch or more in December January was a shutout in all but 10-11 and 17-18. And 10-11 was late Dec and early Jan and was from the same pattern, so not really the same. Feb is not lost but the two recent years the Pac jet got this strong it ruined the whole winter. 11-12 and 16-17. If the 0Z EPS is even close at the end of it's run January is toast. You don't transition from that crap to a decent pattern quickly.

Yes. This is a very stable puke pattern in the Pacific. Always is when you deal with the AK vortex and raging Pac jet. Guarantee you it'll last 4-6 weeks at least. That's middle to the end of January before any improvement at least. Good thing it started in mid December so Feb may can be salvaged. But I have seen that pattern ruin an entire winter. 11-12 comes to mind. Different enso and different drivers but same Pac puke pattern. 16-17 also comes to mind. Super Nino but still the same Pac look that never changed. Be thankful for the snow in December. May be all you get.

I'm turning the lights on in here. Would say turn the heat on but it probably won't be needed anytime soon. I remember saying even before our December snow that we better hope the AK trough doesn't become established as it was being modeled. Well it has and its ruining the heart of winter now. Amazing how all the long range awful patterns come to fruition and the eye candy patterns always evaporate. Smfh

It's all in the MJO and SOI which is apparently influencing the Pacific puke pattern. With it stalling and looping in the warm phases and the SOI being Nina like we are screwed even with the other indices. All we're going to do is block up mild Pacific air.