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Waiting on snow

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Everything posted by Waiting on snow

  1. Waiting on snow
    Are you really surprised by that? Even if the epic pattern did materialize we wouldn't have any better chance than we do now.
  2. Waiting on snow
    I remember going through this the first half of last January. It's a lot to ask relying on a s/w entering in Canada and wanting it to drop in and produce.
  3. Waiting on snow
    Its flat as hell in the gulf. Won't amount to much this go either.
  4. Waiting on snow
    If the storm forms which is likely but not certain, and it's as strong as some models indicate in the Gulf I'd say the nw trend is inevitable. Maybe not much, but enough to put is in the game.
  5. Waiting on snow
    I wonder if a storm does form this weekend even if it misses, if it can get in the 50/50 location and help with the day 9-10 event? I may be wishcasting because that theory should apply to the 25th storm helping the weekend storm, and it's apparently not going to do so.
  6. Waiting on snow
    I had high hopes this year because it appears to be solar driven somewhat. 09-10 solar minimum and extreme blocking. The Maunder Minimum and little ice age where the extreme cold over England and the eastern US lasted for decades had to be NAO driven. And that can't be a coincidence that it occurred during the sunspot minimum. I'm sure there are other drivers but that appears to be one.
  7. Waiting on snow
    Unfortunately this may be the pattern. Blocking continues to be muted. So far this -NAO is just a phantom. And my money is on it stays that way. If the Pacific holds on we have a chance to time something up. It's been decent storms without the NAO for several years. This year will have to find a way too.
  8. Waiting on snow
    As far as where we go from here, we always do better as the pattern relaxes. And it looks to relax the first of Feb. so maybe the storm 9 days out will pan out. As Bob Chill pointed out it doesn't look like Pac puke will lock in and blast all the cold off the continent. It may be a temporary -PNA and reload. We'll see.
  9. Waiting on snow
    I'm guessing there is no high over the ne and no 50/50 low. I wouldn't write it off, but northern stream energy diving is not usually good for us. That's the same model that had historic cold that very same day, and now has a storm crossing north Florida and it's not cold enough for snow. All you can do is lol and realize they're struggling badly.
  10. Waiting on snow
    It really depends on if the Pac jet really cranks up again. A temporary -PNA we can recover from. If that Pac jet cranks up again in Feb close the blinds. Only time will tell I guess.
  11. Waiting on snow
    Yes I'm referring to 10 days or so. Seems to be the best we can do. Also 09-10 was the year of blocking and was a top 5 cold winter. Once the Pac pukes it always seems to last at least 4 weeks. But when it comes to us a fly can fart and the trough is out of here! That said it doesn't look torchy. More average very long range. But who knows anymore? As long as its not a huge SER our chances are about the same to score. Hopefully after next weekend it won't matter to most how it unfolds.
  12. Waiting on snow
    I won't say I told you so. But I will say I never believed it for a minute. We don't lock in cold patterns on the east coast in winter anymore. I'm guessing that's because of the NAO and its refusal to be anything but positive in winter. We can lock in endless torches but not good patterns. I saw the writing on the wall two nights ago this was coming.
  13. Waiting on snow
    You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS.
  14. Waiting on snow
    He very well may be right. I'm wondering if the MJO is the reason the modeling is wanting to breakdown the Pac though?
  15. Waiting on snow
    We'll see how it all pans out I guess. For now I'll just focus on the potential of next weekend and hope for the best afterwards.
  16. Waiting on snow
    The 12z continues the trend at hr 282 and downhill from there. Ridge over the Aleutians and low north of Hawaii.
  17. Waiting on snow
    The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range.
  18. Waiting on snow
    I figured these 0z runs would wake this place up.
  19. Waiting on snow
    Lol definitely. Not trying to post a fail scenario, I'm trying to determine what it is. Miller B's I thought cut west of, or up the Apps and transfers. That one transfers from Panama City to off CHS. Didn't think a true Miller A transferred? I guess it's a Miller A/B hybrid? Either way not a bad look at this range imo.
  20. Waiting on snow
    Lol its and op run for the 27th-28th. Low jumps from Panama to off CHS in one frame, screws me, and races up the length of the coast. May could get us both with a little work. It's all we got down here as of now and maybe up there too at the moment.
  21. Waiting on snow
    I'm not sure what that is on the 18z FV3. Energy diving to the gulf and riding the gulf and transferring from Panama City to off the se coast. I'm guessing some Miller A hybrid or just a model hiccup. Kind of screws me verbatim in the upstate with the transfer. But that's just noise at this range. Important thing is a lot of models have a storm and cold is in place.
  22. Waiting on snow
    Why? Haven't you gotten plenty of snow since the last time it went negative in winter? Closing in on a decade now if my memory is good. 2011?
  23. Waiting on snow
    Yes and if I'm seeing it right the PNA goes negative and screws the pooch though.
  24. Waiting on snow
    Why do you think I hate winter? I'm always waiting on snow that I never get!! Lol it's always so elusive and just barely out of reach!
  25. Waiting on snow
    I absolutely hate winter!!!!!!!!
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