Waiting on snow

The 18z runs are winning! No snow for me of course verbatim, but at least I don't get any 34 degree rain. I call that winning.

I may get bashed for saying this, but the models have been decent inside of 7 days. Not one decent storm threat has made it inside 7 days since Dec. After 7 days they have teased a good pattern with cold and snow but quickly fades at the 7 day mark to snowless and milder. This storm is no different. We haven't had the rug snatched out a 48 hrs yet. The winter has sucked absolutely! But I wonder if the boredom and lack of tracking is because the models have actually improved?

I don't know why you're surprised. This whole winter has been trash outside the first 2 weeks of Dec. Why would that change now?

Watching what is most likely final threat of the season go down the ****ing toilet! The way this joke of a winter has been nobody should have expected any different.

It is depressing rare snowfalls and and 100 year snow events are happening and we can't get a flurry! I wish our turn would come at setting snow records. All we're good at in the SE is heat records.

I want to pull my kitty fur out everytime I see March 1960 come up! I mean come on, that was 6 decades ago and a whole different climate! I'll buy every single poster from the Upstate a steak dinner if that even comes close to happening again!

It's safe to say GSP to CLT to RDU will not see another flake this year. And CAE will go 5 years in a row with no measurable snow. Welcome to the new climate where the SE ridge and +NAO dominate. Smdh

It's just a theory and I'm not a pro by any means, but what if the se ridge is a pattern driver more so than a reaction? We look for ridging to develop in AK, Greenland, etc to drive the pattern, but never hear mention of a mid latitude ridge like the se ridge driving things. Possibly its caused by sst's and then it does it's part to screw up the pattern? Regardless, I'm tired of that ****ing ridge ruining winter year after year!

Looking back the writing was on the wall. El Nino struggled to develop and while Nov and early Dec were colder than average and we did get a snow, the Pac quickly showed its hand for the winter in mid Dec. Tropical forcing was all wrong, strong Pac jet and when the EPO tanked the ridge was too far west and allowed a war. I knew in Dec Jan was toast. Remember saying it on here. But I thought we had plenty of time to save Feb and then the Nino faded. That's a couple years lately El Nino has completely failed. I find it amazing in a warming climate and high SST's we cant even get a legit Nino anymore. Cant remember one since 09-10 that wasn't the crap fest super Nino of a couple years ago.

Yeah it's time to close the blinds on this dumpster fire. I am shocked how this one ended though. I expect 4 out of 5 to be dumpster fires here but I thought this one would deliver.

I wonder if the SER isn't more of a pattern driver than a result of other teleconnections? I mean we look for ridging to develop over AK, Greenland etc. to drive the pattern. I wonder if ridging in the mid latitudes plays a significant role also? If sea surface temps are the reason for that ****ing ridge year after year I fear we are in a downward spiral toward a permanent SER because we cant stay cold enough long enough to bring sea surface temps around the SE down.

Always next year. This one is toast as far as I'm concerned. Even if we pull off a March miracle I'll take it but March snow isn't my thing. Snow between 65-70 degree days melting in a few hours isn't my thing really.

I can't wait for somebody to bring up March 1960! As if we have a shot at that 59 years later in this litter box climate!!

I'm sure it will be irrelevant in the cold phases. That's the way this winter has been. After the first half of December the pattern has been horrendous and I wouldn't expect that to change at this point.

Unfortunately winter weather is most likely done. I don't think we know how the very end of Feb and the 1st 2 weeks of March will go yet, but if I was a betting man I would bet money it's over.

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region.

Even if we luck out and get a late season miracle, it won't change the fact of how temps are going up and up every year and our window of opportunity gets shorter and shorter every year. I'd say we spend at least a month of met winter with spring temps every year. Maybe not a month consecutive of spring temps but overall the warmth overwhelms the cold.

A -NAO and a SE ridge! I mean who would have thought we could pull that off? We just keep inventing was to fail!

This whole decade has sucked. I've never doubted global warming but was skeptical of rate of warming predicted. Not so much now as something is definitely off this decade. The whole decade is warm but since 2015 it has accelerated faster than I ever thought. I figured I'd never live to see the day where snow is a thing of the past. Now I'm not so sure.

Charlotte only dropped to 64 last night! Highest minimum ever for Feb. And to do it the first week of Feb! Good times folks. The winter that keeps on giving. 2019 already following the footsteps of the last few years. Smdh

Its becoming clear as bleak as the LR looks that it's over for us barring a late season miracle. And I'm ok with that. After this week I'll have spring fever. However something is going on with Feb lately. I would say early spring but March and April are colder than Feb lately. So I guess it could be a bad run of luck. But this image from Brad P puts into perspective how Feb isn't exactly Fab Feb anymore. Around half of the record highs for Feb have occurred this decade. Now this year is looking equally shitty.

What do you think happened to it? It is the ultimate unicorn anymore and makes me wonder if it's even possible to go negative for an extended period in winter. Lol

I'd give this winter a C- so far if it ends like this and not another flake falls. Not making light of how awful this year has been. It's just hard to give any lower than a C when you actually reached average snowfall. But jeez has this winter sucked for threats. No tracking at all outside December and no real cold air. I haven't been below 21 the whole winter imby. Not sure about the airports at GSP and CLT but that never happened even when I lived in CAE for 5 years. To call this winter a suck fest is being generous.

It doesn't look bad. Not sure that a conus wide trough with a war would do us any good in the immediate SE for snow though. Looks more of the same to me. But who knows?

Very said times in the winter anymore for the SE. Could be cyclical. All +NAO lately, warm AMO so it could flip. But the longer we go with warmer being the normal I fear I'm wrong and this is the way we're heading.