CheeselandSkies

Just your average 65-70 degree range of possibilities.

Yeah...it kind of is. That's one of the reasons I geek out about severe weather setups (that I can't chase myself), the possibility of armchair chasing and seeing live streams of video like this. Not to say that it won't be dangerous or capable of producing significant severe weather, just that the likelihood of tornadoes capable of leveling a frame house is not particularly high with this event (not that there couldn't still be a few). Either way this has been and continues to be a fun system to track, both the severe aspect and the potential winter wx aspects for MBY this coming weekend.

Wow. One of very few high risks (perhaps the only one in the 21st century) to not be preceded by a Day 2 Moderate.

Wouldn't they have done it for the January day in 2017 that became a high risk on Day 1?

Major veer-backing above 850mb in a lot of those soundings. Wind profiles get somewhat more favorable Saturday over MS/AL compared to Friday over TX/LA, but this wind profile is probably about the best I've found and even it is fairly unidirectional. I would look for a QLCS capable of widespread damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes, some possibly strong. However, I'm not sold on the potential for sustained free warm sector supercells capable of long-track, EF3+, widely visible tornadoes. Not to say this couldn't still overachieve in that regard a la 12/16.

Still quite a bit of VBV in this sounding. Shear profiles are progged to improve somewhat through the day Saturday in southern parts of MS/AL and the Florida panhandle. I think that's where/when any long-track, EF3+ supercell tornadoes will be with this event if things stand as they are.

Friday afternoon over E. Texas, EHI ticked up again on the 12Z NAM but VBV is quite pronounced above 850mb in forecast soundings from the most unstable areas. That's not a look for sustained open warm sector tornadic supercells. There could be some pretty potent QLCS tornadoes though with the amount of turning below 850mb.

I'd be sick of the quakes, too!

The lapse rates on the GFS for Friday afternoon/evening in the Arklatex/lower MS Valley made me sit up and take notice. Those are often the make-or-breaker in low-CAPE cool season setups.

In A/M/J, please. Not this crap in Dec/Jan then snow at the end of April again.

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.

1,090 and no high risk. I'm not really seeing anything to flip us back to more sustained high-end tornado activity like was seen in some years such as 2003, '04, '08 and '11 (although, a neutral PDO and no big honking NE Pacific ridge forcing eastern troughing and keeping the central CONUS cold through April and into May after a mild DJF to piss off the snow lovers would help). Also guessing SPC will be somewhat gun-shy after the seeming slam-dunk of last May 20.

Could we at least get some winter severe out of that pattern? I mentioned 12/1/18 in another thread just now. 1/2008 featured a Midwest tornado outbreak that would be prolific for any time of the year.

OT but I was just looking at your signature and scratching my head, wondering how Illinois had more tornadoes in that dumpster fire of a 2018 season than this year. Then I remembered...December 1st. 2013 (November 17th) and 2016 (March 15th, June 22nd) are also further down than I'd have thought. No surprise 2011 and 2015 are tops.

You'd think we could have eked an early season tornado outbreak or two out of that (other than the one on the 2nd which was well to our south/east), but it was already a bone dry heat devoid of storms, a harbinger of the rest of the spring/summer.

Near normal temps but highest snowfall anomaly? I'll take it. Normal winter temps are cold enough to snow in Wisconsin. It doesn't need to be in the teens, single digits or below. Now it needs to verify.

Can we save that surface pattern for May and June, please? Although the last few years have taught me not to blow off cool season chase opportunities. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

"Annoying" seems like the best way to sum up most of the upper Midwest's weather this decade. Aughts and '90s (although my perception of the latter may be somewhat muddied since I was a kid) were overall more active and impactful for both winter and severe. Ready to turn the corner to 2020.

I was expecting to track at least 5 or 6 of these on radar on 5/20...

Very much reminds me of the 2014 Vilonia, AR cell in reflectivity structure and persistence. Fortunately at this time its peak strength appears to be occurring in the Louisiana rurals NE of DeRidder. It may maintain or re-cycle before Alexandria, though.

It's the 10th anniversary of the upper Midwest winter storm of December 8-9, 2009. One of the few single-storm double-digit snowfall total events for MBY I can recall in my adult life, and especially one of the few such events occurring before Christmas. It was true heart-attack snow, the consistency of wet cement. Impossible to run in, brought down a few big tree limbs, and caused any single-stage snowblower to bog down, even the big one attached to the garden tractor. Would have been great for making snowballs, snowmen/forts/other snow sculptures, though.

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

Trees starting to toss a bit on the west side. 7 AM ob at DCRA was only 8 MPH but gusting to 21.

Is no one going to use my thread? Seems to me this system and the one on its heels deserve their own.