CheeselandSkies

SPC Day 4 highlight for parts of IA/MN/WI. Don't see that in late October too often.

22 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

 

 

...and beautiful.

Had some interest in severe potential for tomorrow but it hasn't trended too impressively. Has some elements of a classic cold core setup with the moisture tongue getting pulled back into the TP, but just seems like the ingredients are out of phase on the models. All the flow is well out to the east in the warm sector, where there's no CAPE.

11 hours ago, Chinook said:

I've been kind of messing around with Tornadoarchive dot com recently, clicking the "random tornado day" feature. Along the way, I rediscovered some interesting days

July 1-3, 1997: a total of 52 tornadoes hit the upper Midwest and into the Northeast, including one in Canada near Detroit. Apparently this was the largest continuous outbreak of tornadoes in the month of July. There was an F2 tornado in the city of Detroit. Not directly associated with a tornado, 5 deaths due to straight line wind at Grosse Pointe Shores MI. Two F3 tornadoes were in Michigan, one was in Minnesota, and one was in Ohio.

June 24, 2003: a total of 67 tornadoes occurred in one day in the "Great South Dakota Tornado Outbreak." Also, a total of 125 tornadoes occurred within a 3-day time span (June 21-24). A single F4 tornado occurred on June 24 and hit the small town of Manchester SD. The residents never rebuilt the city. There were a large number of F0 tornadoes in South Dakota in a couple of counties.

November 22-24 2004: Wikipedia says this was the largest number of tornadoes (104) in one continuous outbreak in the month of November. The worst ones were just three F3 tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi. 61 tornadoes were rated F0

 

That's surprising, considering the extremely prolific (and rather more impactful) outbreak that occurred over several days in November, 1992, tellingly dubbed "The Widespread Outbreak."

Both 2004 and 2005 had quite active Novembers for (and, of course, extremely active and impactful Atlantic hurricane seasons) despite rather different ENSO states.

They also had quite different springs for activity. 2004 might still be the best chase season this millennium for anyone who's been chasing that long, if they managed to score the storm of the day on May 12th, 22nd and/or 24th, 29th, and June 12th. 2005 had a mediocre to poor May, although it likewise featured a rather active period in the first half of June. I remember pulling up the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research site (Pivotal Weather didn't exist at the time, and I didn't know about the CoD site) on my dial-up connection and seeing that trough coming in on the 180-hour GFS frame. It still only goes out to 192 hours on that site!

Despite meager instability forecast on the GFS, it wouldn't take much for something to happen near that triple point on Friday afternoon. Over E IA/N IL on the 06Z run.

Main issue is and has always with this setup seemed to be the amount of precip the model breaks out across the warm sector.

Last Saturday, September 30th I went up to the Wisconsin Rapids area for some railfanning. I neglected to check the forecast, assuming the forecast of sunny for Madison also applied to the rest of Wisconsin. Instead, thunderstorms moved in just as I was arriving, and lingered through the early afternoon. Me and my cameras got drenched, and it took until the mid-afternoon to finally get some nice sun-lit train shots. Consolation prize...
 

 

32 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Thank you for confirming how miserable this summer was for me. Couldn’t even get much relief at night.  

That's amazing, considering this summer seemed pretty mild with no notable hot stretches (at least none that lasted more than a couple of days) to me in Madison, while Minneapolis, a place I think of as inevitably colder and snowier than us (like Green Bay, but soft, y'know, domed stadium and all), was so abnormally warm.

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

 

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It appears Madison, and much of southern Wisconsin, got a nice soaker overnight.

Yes we did.

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its a sign that they got caught in the winds of Hurricane Idalia. Make sure to let us know how they are doing when its 0F out.

Remnants of Idalia didn't come anywhere near Wisconsin. It headed east back out over the Atlantic.

On 9/22/2023 at 3:23 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

@hardypalmguy

 

Brendan used to work at the station I work at in Madison. Great guy.

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A strong cell passing just nw of Cedar Rapids has been tornado-warned for a while.  The sirens have gone off here a couple times, even though CR is not in the path.

Yeah, based on reports/photos that was a legit supercell with a brief tornado. Probably more impressive than anything that will happen in Iowa tomorrow, when it's actually in the tornado risk contours.

8 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay...

Stalls it right on the coast, too, Florence-style. Yuck.

34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

just saw fantasy range nam for iowa...nice

Yikes, that is downright nuts for Iowa Saturday evening.

Late September is the new May?

I guess I'll be the one to dust off this thread, since no one else has. Day 4 outlook includes most of Iowa as well as portions of NE/KS/MO. Details/ceiling still pretty up in the air IMO.

06Z GFS also hints at further potential into the following week, but it's pretty much on an island with that.

Yep, nice mood rain here tonight. My wife is back in the hospital for the sixth time since last December (we only got married in November of 2021). Unending complications from post-COVID kidney failure. Even if/when she does get a transplant, I'm no longer optimistic that she will recover to anything close to her former self.

That’s why I can’t go on that app. I feel like my brain cells are lining up one by one to off themselves

Whenever some Gen Z'er at work asks me if I'm on TikTok or Instagram, I tell them "It's bad enough I have a Facebook account."

I had a Twitter account for about a year from 2017-'18, never once regretted deleting it.

#OldFartMillennial

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1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

GFS continues  to show long range storm threat of some sort September 24th. This is the 3rd or 4th run in a row. Unlikely to be correct but worth mentioning. 

Yesterday's 12Z Euro: Mega weenie run with Lee.

GFS: Hold my beer.

New advisory has the forecast secondary peak down to 115kt. So much for that advisory from Friday morning that had Lee never dropping below 130kt through 06Z Tuesday 9/12. Not only the hurricane models but the multiple deterministic EURO runs and sub-910MB EPS members had my expectations sky-high for this one.

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Triggered wannabe meteorologists 

Every weather forum on the Internet would like to thank the 12Z Euro for the weenie run that was desperately needed to revive interest in Lee.

Bermuda is such a tiny dot in the Atlantic, it is awful hard for it to get a direct hit. They have had brushes with powerful storms before, and are well prepared for these situations.

In 2019/20, direct hits (landfall from the latter) from Humberto and Paulette caused fairly heavy damage, but no deaths and not enough to warrant retirement.

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Think about and ECMWF model run predicting a tornedo outbreak. The air pressure within an individual tornedo might be 850 mb; when you look at the model run you aren't going to see any 850 mb pressures within actual tornadoes - tornadoes are far tinier than the 9 km grid spacing of the ECMWF. 

A couple of the high-res CAMs (NOT the HRRR!) actually appeared to quite accurately resolve* the mesocyclone associated with the Table Grove/Lewistown, IL tornadic supercell on April 4 nearly 24 hours in advance. Unfortunately I didn't put enough stock in them to catch it (ended up too late to the area and stuck on the wrong side of the storm near Monmouth when the warning went out, and I don't core-punch unless I am fairly confident that the conditions do not favor large, damaging hail). However even they couldn't resolve individual tornadoes, unless they were predicting something the size of El Reno '13.
*As in not just helicity tracks, but a localized pressure perturbation with extremely tightly packed isobars on the surface map.

1 minute ago, Jtm12180 said:

Sadly, because it didn’t hit the East Coast. 90 miles further west and it would've been talked about forever…

It actually did though. Cat. 2 landfall on the far tip of the OBX.

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Extreme drought has expanded across east-central Iowa.  A couple spots of exceptional drought have popped in se MN and sw WI.

Wow. I thought El Nino was supposed to prevent this? Then again it was supposed to prevent the Atlantic hurricane season, too.