CheeselandSkies

Yeah, GFS and now NAM suggesting any potential late week RoF will set up a little further south than most I-80 and north folks would like.

Much worse for WI. We'd barely even started at this point that year!

Looks like I was, in fact, a week too early in taking my vacation. At least I'll get to chase Saturday. I'd be even more annoyed if yesterday/Monday had produced something good.

Unfortunately I can't chase Friday, but keeping a close eye on Saturday/potentially Sunday further east.

Don't do that, you'll turn blue (I assume you meant to say won't hold my breath on that)! A cursory glance at the 12Z GFS suggests this coming Saturday could hold some potential, but as you say it's a wait-and-see game at this point. * May 12 was pretty good in northeast Nebraska. It's the one day this year I didn't chase that I regret not going, but again I didn't see such high potential in a weakening cutoff to warrant a PTO day, especially since I'd already burned one the previous Monday so I could chase western Iowa the evening of Sunday 5/7 (which wasn't a bad chase, remains the most recent thunderstorm I've seen this year, but turned out to not have the tornado potential it looked like it would the night before which led me to ask off last minute).

If only it could have been from like I-70 in Kansas on northward. I suppose I could have chased Texas last week and maybe seen some decent stuff (or maybe destroyed my wife's 2021 Hyundai Santa Fe with hail), but I really didn't want to go that far and had my doubts that far south would actually produce this time of year. If it was a month earlier, it would have been a no-brainer. I guess Keota will have to tide me over until next year, barring a major and unforeseen summer pattern change for the Midwest. In previous years, I didn't even have anything like that.

Finally getting a classic mid-June northwest flow supercell/ event in...Mississippi.

If this was a known issue ten years ago, why hasn't it been fixed on any of the subsequent updates to the model?

Just your casual medium-probability development zone off the coast of Africa on...June 16th.

I was out and about in rural southern Wisconsin (away from Madison, where everybody has been constantly watering for the last 5 weeks at least) today and most of the grass is totally brown. We had two, maybe three weeks at the most of nice spring green this year.

Hardcore facepalm.

Sky already has that milky look to it due to smoke in the upper levels. This after all-day overcast, showers, and low 60s yesterday. Easily the dullest May-June of my adult life. Last thunder I heard was still because of the storms I chased on 5/7. If not for 3/31, I think this would have been the year that finally killed my interest in weather.

Except lacking this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_June_14–18,_1992

The fun never stops. SPC already throwing cold water on Father's Day weekend into the following week. Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the interior West. This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized daily severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 06/13/2023

It's 1871 all over again...

Maybe seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16.

Mentioned this on other forums but the signal was consistent enough on the CFS from 500+ hours out, that I asked for next week off a week ago. Still lots of details TBD.

True.

Noticed 'em yesterday, thought it was a couple weeks early for cottonwood seeds blowing around and suspected the dryness might have something to do with it.

Interestingly, Wisconsin's previous record for single daily tornado count prior to August 18, 2005 was set on May 8, 1988. Must have been literally the only severe weather event of the spring. Given the other similarities, surprising it came when it did instead of very early in the season like 3/31. May have been different in YBY, but in 2012 I recall an exceptionally warm (the infamous "Morch") and dry (exacerbated by the lack of a snowpack to melt off from the previous winter) spring, just continuing through the summer. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

This easily ties 2012 for the dullest May/early June stretch of my adult life. Haven't been on a chase since May 7, Keota already feels like it was ages ago. If I'd known how quickly the season was going to die I might have tried harder on April 4. You just don't expect it to be over that early at this latitude. Heck, we still had piles of snow in Madison then.

Pop-up tsra around the area the last couple days; take it over nothing of course but no drought-buster. Training MCS season is desperately needed. Perhaps light at the end of the tunnel around mid-month if the CFS/GFS are to be believed; although where the pattern sets up will determine the haves/have-nots.

True. Tried to wash the Corolla after work today and the automated car wash at the Kwik Trip went stupid and just stopped in the middle of the cycle. The driver in front of me had to back out with his car still covered in soap, and they closed the wash since no one there knew how to service it.

Thought it was just my 2009 Corolla because I don't really care how it looks anymore, but I realized this morning that every car left outside has a grubby, dusty film all over it from the combination of prolonged dryness, air quality issues and construction zones everywhere. I ran the windshield sprayers to clear it out of my view and the fluid ran down black and streaked when the wipers hit it. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Grass turning brown about 3 weeks after it finally turned fully green. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk