CheeselandSkies

Enhanced risk upgrade for wind with the Iowa MCS, looks like a miss south again for I-80 and north.

Models yesterday showing rain/storms over southern WI this morning were completely wrong. The sun's out.

At least it looks good for rain and thunder tomorrow morning. If this MCS were better-timed we'd have greater severe chances, but we'll take what we can get at this point. Pinning my hopes on the general level of predictability for severe weather in the summer...

Pretty weak north of wherever the second MCS on Wednesday tracks, which as @hawkeye_wx alluded to in another thread, will probably be further south than most of us would like. Sadly, just the fact that there's a pretty good chance for thunder is better than we've done for most of this year. Edit: NAM now has even the first MCS going south of the state line Wednesday morning.

Yup. Google Street View shows it was there by July of 2018.

Caught a twilight glimpse of the Trivoli EF2 from the Casey's gas station on the west edge of Hanna City that day. I wanted to stay put and shoot it, or even drive a little north up IL-78 to try and get around the tree line, but my chase partner at the time (who was driving) freaked out a bit and wanted to keep driving east to stay ahead of it. So we let it go in the darkness and never did see it again.

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking. Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our season to start and finish.

Actually looking like we might get more rain than expected late this afternoon and tonight... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Severe thunderstorm warning for a little pop-up hailer. Timed just perfectly to pour on my 10-minute commute home from work. We'll take what we can get, but these teensy popcorn things ain't gonna make a dent in this drought.

SPC has much of WI highlighted in the Day 4 outlook. They're the professionals, but I'm not really seeing it. NAM/GFS soundings for Wednesday look pretty mediocre. Could be some isolated wind/hail but not worthy of a Day 4 areal highlight IMO.

Yeah. I thought that was only ever gonna be an issue when trying to chase the Plains with Mexican fire smoke blowing in. 5/20/2019, the updraft base of the supercell that was about to produce the Mangum, OK EF2 crossed US 62 1-2 miles west of me and I couldn't make out any structure whatsoever. Thus I waited too long to move, got caught in the chaser conga line and never did see the tornado.

Still bone @$$ dry in southern WI. Lawns that are not being constantly watered have been brown for several weeks.

Speaking of the devil, random tornado warning for Bureau County, IL. Even if anything were to happen, it'd be totally rain-wrapped.

It'll probably happen when we're short-staffed where I work and I can't take any PTO.

I just don't understand how northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin can get a significant severe weather event at the end of March, and then can't buy one for all of May and June.

Holy shit. Don't breathe. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Up to 198. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

They forgot to rake the forest. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Up to 190 now. Of course my wallpaper is the Keota tornado. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

AQI 186 at Madison according to my phone. Worst I've ever seen. Can smell that "burnt plastic," too and my nose isn't very sensitive so if I can smell it it's bad. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yeah, GFS and now NAM suggesting any potential late week RoF will set up a little further south than most I-80 and north folks would like.

Much worse for WI. We'd barely even started at this point that year!

Looks like I was, in fact, a week too early in taking my vacation. At least I'll get to chase Saturday. I'd be even more annoyed if yesterday/Monday had produced something good.

Unfortunately I can't chase Friday, but keeping a close eye on Saturday/potentially Sunday further east.

Don't do that, you'll turn blue (I assume you meant to say won't hold my breath on that)! A cursory glance at the 12Z GFS suggests this coming Saturday could hold some potential, but as you say it's a wait-and-see game at this point. * May 12 was pretty good in northeast Nebraska. It's the one day this year I didn't chase that I regret not going, but again I didn't see such high potential in a weakening cutoff to warrant a PTO day, especially since I'd already burned one the previous Monday so I could chase western Iowa the evening of Sunday 5/7 (which wasn't a bad chase, remains the most recent thunderstorm I've seen this year, but turned out to not have the tornado potential it looked like it would the night before which led me to ask off last minute).