Wetbulbs88

What exactly is this map? Does it show where the sleet line is and therefore snow/ice/rain gradients?

They don’t run away from one NAM run. They run toward the NAM and face it down.

Am I crazy or does the GFS have the primary Low in a totally different spot?

Can you give more detail or a source?

Like what?

It seems like TT is showing different things on different devices. My Monday 06z frame looks nothing like anything anyone posted here...

If you’ve been doing this longer than a couple years you should know we are not even close to a solution right now. The models are chasing lows all over the place as it phases over the Carolinas. How often do we see a low in SE Virginia end up in Harrisburg? Can it happen? Absolutely. Do I have any confidence in these models right now? Absolutely not. Stop. Taking. Runs. Verbatim. They are literally cartoon depictions. The GEFS shows you firsthand how f*ked the models are right now. Plenty of time to go. The trend tonight was clearrrly SE, until, somehow, we get a 980 low in western PA. I have a feeling it’s not hurricane season anymore. Let’s see what details the Euro gives us.

Absolutely love this site.

I was gone for almost a day. Seems like the ledge jumping finally stopped.

I got 34 inches from snowmaggedon. I’ll never see that again I don’t think. And I DEFINITELY won’t see three HECSes in a winter again.

You gotta love folks taking a day five GFS run as a nowcast when ensembles are suppressed. It’s almost like no one has been here before.

Gambler’s fallacy.

The reasoning makes no sense. He argues for the ensemble quantity which would leave western regions high and dry, with suppression killing totals even for the bullseye, but then at the end calls for a massive snowstorm in western regions regardless of where the storm tracks.

Slowing down now. Just some light snow. I'm going to catch a few hours before work tomorrow. Great storm--hopefully we'll do it again soon! For now, time for NY and Boston to take over. ETA: Just measured 3.9" out there. I'll call it 4" since it's still snowing lightly!

Feel the same way and I was in Ellicott City. We had some great dynamics in that little microclimate.

It's funny, when I was in NYC, the north shore of Long Island seemed to cash in on everything. If you snoop around the NYC thread you'll hear the old timers talking about how different things are now. It might have just been a lucky stretch of years, but damn, they would absolutely crush us 3/5 times because of Lows heading right over the benchmark. The difference in geographical significance is absolutely true. In the city, the dynamics were really tight because you were on the water, and Harlem (where I was) would often do better than Brooklyn. But overall, you'd have to go really far inland on marginal events. That blizzard in 2017 was absolutely soul crushing. It was supposed to be the storm of my lifetime, but within 24 hours the track tucked in just enough to turn us to sleet after about 7 inches. You had to go at least 40 miles inland to see all snow. Here in MD it can be a matter of being in the District or being where I am.

Still holing on to moderate snow. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 4" here. Just a few more minutes left.

Not quite Feb. 5 & 9 in 2010, but I'll take it!

My fiancé is on 16th and Columbia. I'm just glad she gets to telework and wake up to a couple inches. We're going to look for places in the city this summer--NOT looking forward to it come winter. Being up here in CC is like day and night. We're probably going to double that total tonight.

I think I'd feel like it was a given if I lived in Central Mass or something. In New York, there were plenty of misses. For me it's just a little too tough down here. Ellicott City was manageable because topologically it made for good rates and dynamics. I friggin' hate this DC snow hole stuff. It really is a swamp of sinking air. I guess it's better than Raleigh or something.

Don't we all. Even in 2009-2010 I still griped when we didn't cash in.

Got about ten or fifteen more minutes left here. I'm more than satisfied. Beat my expectations by a landslide. That last band was worth the wait on its own. Still ripping decently though.

I guess you don't have to drive all that far to get to where it shifts haha.

Don't blame you. I lived in Yonkers and then NYC for seven years. Even that was almost too cold for me when the polar vortex settled. I'd tolerate it for the snow though. NYC was significantly easier than here in DC.

If I'd had my driver's license I would've been there.