Wetbulbs88
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Everything posted by Wetbulbs88
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Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory?
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What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere?
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That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there.
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So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...
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Can't make this sh*t up. Technically I'm just in the snow zone but realistically, it'll smother me as well.
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I like this call. It's pretty in line with the pros at NWS too. I do however have more confidence in a potential high bust considering the trends in guidance at the final hour here. The key for me is temps. If we clearly start as snow and dew points have to meet as a bunch of QPF falls, it opens the window for us. It's a lot harder to get no snow from the setup than 5-6". You'd like to think that the closer to the event, the more accurate the modeling, but who the fark knows anymore.
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It's interesting that the pros 'succumb' to gambler's fallacy. I put it in quotes because apparently these error patterns do in fact line up with real patterns for an extended winter of events. As in, mets think storms busting high on surface temps is a seasonal 'trend'. I really didn't put much stock into these types of things.
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I think this looks great.
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As it does
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I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is?
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Seems like the mean has been 2-4 for some time. Gotta wonder if some pros just take this and run because can it really be that much worse?
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What would be a 2021 storm without some sort of rug pull for DC. I guess I better get the generator out. Go para!
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Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still.
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Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying.
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I said 5-8 but that Euro map is awful Might get detention.
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Not a fan of the euro. Pretty dry, not really much snow to speak of here. Hopefully it performs as poorly as it has of late.
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Postmodern weather at its finest
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Your post history is not favorable to you.
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The JMA subsumed it once Jumia (ticker $JMIA) began operations there.
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Yeah just hard to piece together what's going on. Still learning to read soundings...at least it's all frozen lol?
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To be honest I would post the same if I was actually getting something for once.
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Pivotal doesn't show precip panels for the Ukie? Or am I missing something?
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I'm at 4". Seriously. Just give me four inches and then sleet all you want. All I've seen this year is seven inches nickeled and dimed. The best event was about four over like 50 hours. I've seen moderate snow once and it wasn't even sticking. Just give me a real snow and I'll cut my b*tching and moaning in half.
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3-4" for you ain't gonna cut for those of us in DC. At least it's mostly frozen but that would definitely not be a win for me. And there is guidance showing that we can do better than that, including NWS pro guidance thus far. All we can do is hope. Everyone's expectations will be different though. Those of us who haven't gotten much this year won't care as much about what's likely to happen, just the way it works.
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I'm not 0-8 but I'm 1-7, and the one win wasn't exactly the best, so I hear ya.
