Wetbulbs88
-
Posts
1,425 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Wetbulbs88
-
I can’t read the words I just see that I’m in the 6-14 feet zone.
-
LOL. ICONoclastic.
-
Yeah actually I’ve been pretty unbiased the whole time. But it seems you only chime in when it’s not pollyannish.
-
I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope.
-
Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain.
-
Haha oh trust me I know firsthand.
-
And the HRRR is DRY. Wow.
-
NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year.
-
Wow the NAM pretty much just took away I-95's snow.
-
Yeah I don't want the See Spot Run version. Thanks!
-
Wow this is a trove. Thanks.
-
Nice, are you going to catch any of the goods tomorrow? That band is pushing into Mexico for f's sake.
-
Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory?
-
What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere?
-
That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there.
-
So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong...
-
Can't make this sh*t up. Technically I'm just in the snow zone but realistically, it'll smother me as well.
-
I like this call. It's pretty in line with the pros at NWS too. I do however have more confidence in a potential high bust considering the trends in guidance at the final hour here. The key for me is temps. If we clearly start as snow and dew points have to meet as a bunch of QPF falls, it opens the window for us. It's a lot harder to get no snow from the setup than 5-6". You'd like to think that the closer to the event, the more accurate the modeling, but who the fark knows anymore.
-
It's interesting that the pros 'succumb' to gambler's fallacy. I put it in quotes because apparently these error patterns do in fact line up with real patterns for an extended winter of events. As in, mets think storms busting high on surface temps is a seasonal 'trend'. I really didn't put much stock into these types of things.
-
I think this looks great.
-
As it does
-
I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is?
-
Seems like the mean has been 2-4 for some time. Gotta wonder if some pros just take this and run because can it really be that much worse?
-
What would be a 2021 storm without some sort of rug pull for DC. I guess I better get the generator out. Go para!
-
Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still.
