Wetbulbs88

Couldn't agree more. And the NAM has been hot this year. And the NAM--as I'm saying now for the upteenth time--is NOT a bad model.

I see two camps. One wants to be reasonable and chuck the NAM. The other is ready to jump. I'm going to put this out there before the rest of 18z starts rolling in because I don't want to seem like I'm just rolling with the waves. When the mesos start trying to pull the globals back to reality, the writing is on the wall. I like where we're at right now considering where we were at two days ago, but to underestimate the NAM at this point--which I've tried to mention many times this winter is a good model--would be foolish. This just isn't a setup that's very conducive for us. We're lucky to have this shunting mechanism but it can only do so much. We're still threading the needle. Maybe I'm playing my own sublimation game and overcompensating to protect myself, but I think it's a pretty big stretch to hope for WSW criteria at this point. For me, I'm just happy if we get a storm that produces water in frozen form to any extent. Anything more than that is icing.

Can you translate that second part to English? I can't read the right hand panel.

Okay I've been pulled back in. The threat can start deteriorating now.

Funny enough that’s what I’d been doing before I read this.

Yeah we had a WWA this morning. This definitely warranted a warning. Especially considering the crap they issued WSW for earlier this year.

The grass outside is encased in a sheet of ice at least 1/3” but I’d say more. All plant life encased in thick ice. The suburban roads are kind of slippery but snow is far worse than this. If this had started at 4PM it would’ve been a disaster. Just not cold enough for a skating rink.

I'm not sure. Beginning to wind down right as the sun goes down. Without further accretion there's not enough standing water to create problems on the roads. I'd think this has to hang on till 7-8 to cause real problems, and radar doesn't show that to be happening. Worst case scenario would've been if this all started just a couple hours ago.

Is that from a lack of QPF? Gotta be colder in EC than here.

We're there now too. Took a while though. The roads are fine though. A tad slippery in the suburbs and backroads, but anything used with decent frequency is just wet.

I didn’t look for about an hour and a half and suddenly everything as sheeted in sleet. In a bit of a Lull now but I can see things getting bad pretty rapidly unless that back edge comes through within an hour or so.In a bit of a Loel now but I can see things getting bad pretty rapidly unless that back edge comes through within an hour or so.

Same old here in CC. Colder surfaces accreting. Some trees just wet though. Roads fine, even the car is mainly just wet.

Some sleet mixing in now. If this continues into evening things could get tricky but that might be a stretch.

Wow gorgeous. Surprised there’s accretion in TP. I’m in Chevy Chase and the trees are just wet.

Easily the best event to be fringed. Total dearth of accretion on the trees, which is the prettiest part of this. Think it's just too warm here.

I don’t know where I moved to but it’s even worse than DC. No precipitation in my window. What have I done.

All I know is that we’ve been in dead patterns only to see dumb luck, as PSU put it, prevail. In fact dumb luck probably accounts for more storms than we allow for in our disco. Why? Because getting the right macro pattern, teleconnections, setups, and track all at once basically never happens, and even getting two of those is quite difficult. So as far as I’m concerned, if we’re still within the first three months of the year, might as well cross our fingers and hope for the best.

I just told my ex who's planning to drive back from Little Rock to get her dog that we'd be better off using a tarot reader at this point. And speaking of fortune, even Little Rock is slated for 4-8" now...Watch their storm verify. What is this world coming to?

So much contradicting commentary on the PBP lol

Y’all shouldn’t be surprised. It’s because I’m here now.

This

And that’s a gambler’s fallacy!

Gambler's fallacy!

Rim shot!

Yeah radar extrapolation only works when storms are matured and moisture plumes are fairly predictable. Even then it's an unwieldy tool. Edit: and I'm talking about eyeballed extraps, not the shit tools that they provide on weather.com and whatnot. Speaking of which, it's infinitely annoying that weather.com and Accuweather don't even let you loop anymore--like, as far as I'm concerned, you have to watch the radar morph into their totally useless future extrapolation.