Wetbulbs88

Yeah honestly everyone is saying the NAM caved. It didn’t. Caving would’ve been a similar solution and this is not a similar solution. You can say I’m arguing semantics but I made my call earlier. I think the NAM will end up being closer to the result.

Tbh despite the fact that you’re right, it barely makes a tangible difference. The fall line has to cut RIGHT across DC for it to make a real difference.

Only out to 54 on TT but NAM3k looks a little colder.

I am 100% against a thread until as late as possible. I don't care if it's superstitious. I'm willing to try anything at this point.

The off runs are brutal Is this actually a thing? Why would off runs be any different?

Honestly this looks beautiful. If it's all frozen I really won't complain. Hopefully the thump holds on a little longer. It happens often, those things are VERY difficult to time via modeling.

Huh? His area is nothing like other parts of the region. How can you say it's 'no different'. That makes no sense at all.

Haha I'm so bitter man. I feel for you. I grew up in Ellicott City, lived in Seattle for a two years (where I actually got lucky with a couple storms), then was absolutely blessed to live in Yonkers and Harlem for six years total. I can honestly say that Ellicott City is closer to New York than DC. Like, it's not even close. This is miserable.

This is going to be very difficult to pull off for you.

Yeah I was joking. I'm just really salty so anything below 6" is just not going to really get me going. Been robbed pretty much every storm except for the first January one and even that was pretty meh for a warning event.

Here comes the kick in the nuts.

RGEM is there too though. Not quite as much but nothing like the globals.

Couldn't agree more. And the NAM has been hot this year. And the NAM--as I'm saying now for the upteenth time--is NOT a bad model.

I see two camps. One wants to be reasonable and chuck the NAM. The other is ready to jump. I'm going to put this out there before the rest of 18z starts rolling in because I don't want to seem like I'm just rolling with the waves. When the mesos start trying to pull the globals back to reality, the writing is on the wall. I like where we're at right now considering where we were at two days ago, but to underestimate the NAM at this point--which I've tried to mention many times this winter is a good model--would be foolish. This just isn't a setup that's very conducive for us. We're lucky to have this shunting mechanism but it can only do so much. We're still threading the needle. Maybe I'm playing my own sublimation game and overcompensating to protect myself, but I think it's a pretty big stretch to hope for WSW criteria at this point. For me, I'm just happy if we get a storm that produces water in frozen form to any extent. Anything more than that is icing.

Can you translate that second part to English? I can't read the right hand panel.

Okay I've been pulled back in. The threat can start deteriorating now.

Funny enough that’s what I’d been doing before I read this.

Yeah we had a WWA this morning. This definitely warranted a warning. Especially considering the crap they issued WSW for earlier this year.

The grass outside is encased in a sheet of ice at least 1/3” but I’d say more. All plant life encased in thick ice. The suburban roads are kind of slippery but snow is far worse than this. If this had started at 4PM it would’ve been a disaster. Just not cold enough for a skating rink.

I'm not sure. Beginning to wind down right as the sun goes down. Without further accretion there's not enough standing water to create problems on the roads. I'd think this has to hang on till 7-8 to cause real problems, and radar doesn't show that to be happening. Worst case scenario would've been if this all started just a couple hours ago.

Is that from a lack of QPF? Gotta be colder in EC than here.

We're there now too. Took a while though. The roads are fine though. A tad slippery in the suburbs and backroads, but anything used with decent frequency is just wet.

I didn’t look for about an hour and a half and suddenly everything as sheeted in sleet. In a bit of a Lull now but I can see things getting bad pretty rapidly unless that back edge comes through within an hour or so.In a bit of a Loel now but I can see things getting bad pretty rapidly unless that back edge comes through within an hour or so.

Same old here in CC. Colder surfaces accreting. Some trees just wet though. Roads fine, even the car is mainly just wet.

Some sleet mixing in now. If this continues into evening things could get tricky but that might be a stretch.