Wetbulbs88

Why is everyone cherrypicking QPF? If you took any other model you could pick practically every other data point and it would be a disaster. And many other models were showing similar QPF. And many areas to our NW got similar QPF. The NAM was on an island with mix line and warm nose. It wasn't even close. That's why the pros preferred it in their disco.

I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant. Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right.

No, they didn't. I can go back and grab the disco for you. They absolutely mentioned the speed of the storm and the overdoing of QPF.

So you're cherry picking data points, congrats. The pros at NWS specifically mentioned the NAM's temperature profiles. And many received this QPF, just not our area. Try again.

Hmmmm. People who have been this for decades...vs. a neophyte sadist with transparently and poorly sublimated depression... I think I'll take the word of the former.

Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face.

In every other winter it has been the opposite. You're using an extremely small sample size. But you do you.

I could tell your emotions were coming into play on this one. It was tough to ignore the potential given the guidance. I appreciate that you're feeling for us down here. It's just beyond painful at this point. The NAM was onto something though, and NWS knew it. In fact I think they knew the warning for DC was misplaced by that point. They're disco last last night was literally the writing on the wall. Funny enough, even if it was all snow, it really wouldn't have been that great an event. Once again the swampy shallows of DC destroyed lift for much of the time. And this thing was in and out within what? Five hours at most? Another trait the pros at Sterling nailed, which none of the models did.

It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance.

Honestly, maybe the worst bust this year. The two-wave storm was bad but this one really seemed like it couldn't fail totally. But the NAM has been fire all year, so, shrug. Mets called it but didn't have the guts to go against most of guidance. I'm seriously considering moving once my job here is done. This is pure torture.

Was sleeting really heavily with an odd flake here and there for a minute, now back to moderate sleet.

There must be an upsloping factor or something because you're due east from me and it seems you're always colder/snowier.

It showed--BY FAR--the best solution last night. On Monday it's not in its range. You see, THIS is a terrible post. But I'm not part of the AmericanWx Mid-Atlantic mafia so only certain people are taken seriously. I've been far more objective with these storms than others. Get over yourselves.

Maybe you don't understand the context. The pros said they were favoring the NAM. I mentioned this as a potential indicator of problems with our forecast. Some people jumped down my throat. Seems like you've joined the people who choose hostility because it doesn't show snow--but it's particularly strange because it's not even your backyard. Would be nice if I didn't have to present the rosiest outlook regardless. If you're not a red tagger here or part of some old school clique, you're not allowed to say certain things. Period. Hence, high school.

Do you have selective thinking or something? Or were you asleep six hours before the storm? Some of you act like you're in high school.

Yet again, when I pointed to the pros favoring the NAM, I got roasted. 'Broken record'. People don't like the truth.

All sleet

Right...yet all I said is that it was probably not the best sign that they were...

That doesn’t make any sense. This implies that their thinking means nothing to you. I mean unless that’s how you feel then you do you.

My worry is that the pros at NWS are favoring the NAM.

I remember forcing my friends to watch local on the 8s so I could see the radar.

1. Brutal 2. The QPF differences between models are just crazy.

Nice. Gonna check it myself when I’m back with the pups. It’s been super bullish this whole time.

Hopefully the para holds serve. It’s been better for like 48 hours.

So HRRR precip but not quite as cold?