PowderBeard
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Everything posted by PowderBeard
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Core looking a bit more NW than NNW to me. Convection really heading west. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-0-24-100
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Only one trip through so far but winds appear to be decreasing, only getting 60 knot gusts.
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Weenies looking at models, live satellite and radar: Henri:
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A sign of things to come...
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Highest rainfall total? I'm thinking somewhere in the Berks/Western CT gets 8."
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At least a model is finally showing a decent shield. I laughed when I saw it start out 8-10mb higher than what the recons are finding.
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LOL. Well done. Lack of clarity is probably why my dissertation is taking so damn long.
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People prepping late. Just grabbed some ice cream from out local gas station. They have only a few hundred gallons left and not expecting a delivery until Monday at the earliest. Meanwhile there were people from nearby towns who drove there because all their stations are out.
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I'm feeling some new slides to ski come winter off rt. 2.
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Given the mission data and a few hours left over some warm water I bet it is a borderline cat 2 come early morning. Rookie question, anyone know if models run off current or historical SST data? Wonder if it being a few degrees warmer than usual slows the weakening process.
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Yea, bunch of ungratefuls.
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Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect.
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Literally just had this convo with my wife. There is such a psychology piece to this. I would like to think it is about getting people prepared "just in case" but I'm sure it is all about clicks, likes, and views. If you're a little off and it is not as bad, whatever, the weathermen are always wrong. But if you're right, people remember and then you have a viewer/subscriber for life.
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Ha! If you can overlook the overdone mb the 3KM is actually modeling Henri's winds quite well comparing it to the live data.
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Mission 10 showing 30sec average of 78 knots.
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If you read the tweet thread she later clarifies the 1,000,000 number is regionally and includes Mass and NH.
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Yup, forget snapped limbs. Lots of uprooted trees.
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Maybe my tin-foil hat is too tight but I wouldn't put it past them, given the spankings they received in the past year, to come out and say how they are expecting the worst-case scenario only to "exceed expectations" when they restore to most customers within a few days.
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Given the SST and better organization I'd be surprised if this wasn't a strong Cat 1 by this evening. GFS, HMON, and HWRF all similar in that regard as well. Getting away from IR as @WxWatcher007mentioned was helpful to see the organization.
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Looking at movement and temps probably another 12-14 hour window left to strengthen.
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Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. Thanks for sharing the link.
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Like going over the Everglades.
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Any good links?
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Little wobble east, GFS makes landfall over Narragansett Bay on 6z vs. New London area.
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Clearer center and getting its stuff together now. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-16-12-1-100-4&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
