WesternFringe

No one knows the final result yet. As depicted, you may be right, but who knows? It is hubris to think you know more than the models that are not even showing the final outcome yet. The models don’t even agree with one another and you seem to weight the lowest verification score model (the GFS and it cousin the GEFS) as your bighest deb trend rationale.

So, is winter still canceled?

Why come to this thread then? Or are you saying it is time for a separate Jan 6/7 thread? Yes, I said it. Lol

Also some of this could be artifacts of timing. Would be more helpful to see a loop of 24 hrs from each run compared to one another ETA: the increased snow on the Euro from 0z to 12z is something to watch. If it keeps looking like that, it might be a trend towards snowier outcomes for many in the MA

Can you get verification scores for the ensemble members anywhere? That would be fun data to have

No, but I don’t call people names. Can you say the same? You made a forecast, I commented on it. I still find it literally meaningless to forecast similar probabilities for 4 such disparate outcomes. eta: and always will

But the trends…

You practically said 25% for each of 4 scenarios, so you have all of your bases covered and the forecast is essentially meaningless, but keep trashing others with ad hominem attacks. eta: ninja’d by NA101

I like you and always have enjoyed your posts, but do you always talk about yourself in 3rd person? Too funny. Lol If one data point from where you start makes a trend, then my Stats professors lied to me. Agree with your post regarding the first wave determining a lot of the outcome of the second wave.

Starting from what reference point? Last 3 runs? Last 5? Last 10? Not being contentious, just honestly curious. Like you have correctly stated before the starting point is important to denote when identifying trends, and choosing that starting point can frame the data in any way you would like to frame it. In other words, I am wondering about the magnitude and the timing of the trend. eta: For example, the 18 hr trend on Will’s gefs mean snowfall maps was robust and towards more widespread snowfall in Virginia, but the 24 hr trend was minor and only a slight push SE with the heavier snow line.

The latest run looks most similar to its run 24 hours ago, except for a slightly better push SE with the 2” line in northern Maryland and towards the metros.

Question for the mets, is there a NBM for ensembles? Or does the blend include ensembles, ops, and mesos? If it includes all, does the weighting change as time progresses toward zero hours out?

I know it is an op run at 6-7 days, but the gradient on the 12z GFS is crazy if it were to verify like that. Verbatim Augusta Co imby would get 10-12” but 10-15 miles away would get 0-1”!

Apparently, the geese know what’s up.

So, the Geese Index is high right now. And there is a 2-3 week delay in its effect on snowy weather, sort of like SSW events. Got it! In all seriousness, I am focused on the ensembles and the 7th. Would be nice to get everyone on the board, even if it isn’t the MECS, HECS, or the KU that some in here are hunting.

Snowing at Wintergreen according to mPing users. Reports of sleet in Greenville, according to family members.

Ops aren’t great at predicting temp at hr 216? Wow! Great insight eta: ops are pretty useless after Day 5, but we know this

Yeah, whatever man. See my post. I am not even arguing either side of cc though my whole point is that the cavalry is late bc the model doesn’t even show what we were arguing over being impossible even happening anymore

Again, people putting words in my mouth. I don’t disagree with any premise you mentioned. I also am not going to pretend that a 192 hr op depiction proves anything! That is my point. I am not talking climate change at all. The next 2 runs of the fricking same model showed nothing like we were talking about!!!! So why even say this shouldn’t happen when it never fucking did!!!! Jesus Christ, that is all I am saying!!!

Yeah, we were all talking about a discrete threat, so you have it right about that. The models saw rain bc the ground layers were warm in its depiction of the future. And then we all agreed to kinda see what actually happens in 8 days instead of focusing on one model run’s output. But I am missing the point? Enlighten me eta: And it is bs if you say it is concerning when the model says this at all. Where were you all in saying it was concerning when the models were portraying 20-30 inches a few runs ago? Get real and accept the good with the bad. And also realize that 192 hr depictions rarely verify.

If that means discounting an op run at 192 that never happened that it’s own two subsequent runs disagreed with and said would not happen, count me an ostrich! Lol ETA: but keep preaching to me about events that never happened. That will prove your point.

If every model run’s output is a concern to you, you are ridiculous and missing the point. Hour 192 never verifies on the GFS. But yeah, I am missing the point!? Lol eta: it was model output that we were discussing that never happened at 192, and hasn’t been modeled since as even close to our area at 186 or 180 in the 2 subsequent models runs, but I am missing the point? I should have been alarmed by the one run? Okay, you are right. The fact the models showed something that never happened is evidence of….what exactly?

So a model that factors in historical data is outputting what would not have been expected in the past? Thanks for the insight. Abd btw, the model isn't even showing anywhere close to what we were disagreeing about 2 runs ago at hr 192 anyways, so you are way late.

So the forecast temp on an op changed 7 degrees 13 days out? Shocker!

Didn’t a wise poster (psu) just say this 20 hrs ago?: A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck.