Geoboy645

In other news, the rain and snow the last week here has bumped 2024 up to #4 all time for precip at Madison with 47.23 inches. The only years ahead of 2024 at this point are 1884, 2018, and 1881 with 49.19, 50.64, and 52.91 inches respectively. I think we can surpass 1884, and mayyybe 2018 if we get a QPF bomb at some point in the next month. I don't think we reach 1881 at this point unless something very strange happens, especially with the incoming cold/dry NW pattern. Although, at least yesterday we continued the overperformance streak at least further to the east. An area of Dodge County from Beaver Dam Eward got 6" of snow, which is definitely an overperformance. It'll be interesting if the streak continues as we start winter here.

Yeah this feels like the pattern that we have managed to somehow avoid the last few years where the LES belts just go on overdrive, for everyone in the belts. We've seen how it's been for Buffalo with the well-above average water temps (LSTs?) and favorable cold air and wind direction. We haven't seen that with a NW-flow event in quite a while while the lakes have been at the early season max for temps. Will be interesting to watch over the next couple weeks here.

The way we have been overperforming rain events this year and have had two inch rain events this year, there's a chance we'll be above average by like Tuesday.

So Madison finished yesterday with a total of 2.21 inches of rain. Making it the 5th 2 inch plus day at Madison this year, tied with 2000 for the most ever. Making this year a top 10 wettest year on record with 43.60 inches and counting, probably will surpass 08 and 07 by the end of next week. And making this month combined with the .28 so far today, an average month of precip which is just hilarious. The whiplash of 2024 continues.

What, a rain event overperfoming? In the year 2024? That's so crazy!

An impressive stat about yesterday. The average of the day ended up at 73.5 degrees at Madison. It beat the latest daily average above 73 degrees by 8 days. The average date of last day this warm is September 11th, so yesterday broke that average by 48 days(!). To put it in perspective, in spring the earliest date this warm was April 16th, and the average first day this warm isn't until May 26th. The significance of a daily average of 73 at Madison is that it's warmer than the 30-year daily average for the average temperature of the warmest stretch of summer from July 2nd to 30th. So even in the peak of summer, a daily average of 73.5 would be considered an above-normal day. And we had a day with that on October 29th. That's pretty crazy.

Madison reached 81 today, tied with 10/29/1937 for the latest 80 degree day on record.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1845213325338214901 Well if this is any accurate, pretty bad. If that holds true, things could get rough for drought across the region come spring.

Drought Monitor updated, and it is starting to look really rough for the areas that have missed out on the last couple of events. The Northwoods especially is looking rough, that's a large area of D2 added this week with no real precip chances in sight. Definitely an increased chance of wildfires up there as we continue on into October and November.

Despite it not really feeling like it, it is in fact October. Nothing really too exciting in the near-future, just continued 60s/70s and sunny for the region. As long as we can keep these conditions for the comet from the 9th-20th, we'll be alright. Biggest concern for the first half of the month otherwise is the continuing drought conditions in the areas that missed out on the rain on 9/22 and/or from Post-Helene, especially in the Northwoods where it has been pretty dry for a while now. Otherwise, not a whole lot going on.

Looks like the final total will be 3.97" for today at Madison. Breaks the daily and monthly record set on this date in 2009, and is a top 5(!!!) daily rainfall in Madison. This feels like the rain equivalent of 3/25/23 where nothing was really expected to happen and we end up with a top 10 daily precip-type record.

Madison is up to 3.20" for a daily total so far, with a few more hours of rain to come. This makes this year one of only four years to record multiple 3"+ days in year with 1869, 1878, and 2007 being the other ones. This also puts us over 40" of rain for the year, which makes this year a top 15 wettest on record. Notably before 1990, we only recorded 40" of rain in a year in the 1880-85 period and 1959. And now this is the 8th time in the last 34 years that we have recorded 40"+. We have recorded almost as much rain since Midnight as we had recorded in the over two months prior. Crazy.

Welp, I guess the drought is over up here. Widespread 1-3" over most of Southern Wisconsin, with pockets of 4"+. Including an area of up to 6" (!) between Rio, Dekorra, Wyocena, and Poynette. It can't ever just be a little rain anymore, it either has to be no rain at all or a major rain event.

Today feels like June or July 21st, not September 21st with the afternoon popup-style, and occasionally severe storms. Very strange feeling to say the least.

To put in perspective how much of a flip this has been for precipitation. In the two months from 5/16-7/16, Madison recorded 20.87 inches of rain (11.22 in to 32.09 in). In the two months from 7/16 to today, we have recorded 3.82 inches (32.09 in to 35.91 inches).

After experiencing the 5th wettest summer on record, we are now in abnormally dry conditions. Talk about a change.

What? We start going well above average again as soon as we leave summer? Color me shocked!

Just like that it's September again. The most pleasant month of the year for the region, and at least the first week or so looks to be that way this year. Can't complain about 70's and sunny at all this time of year, as the clock starts to slowly tick down to the beginning of cold season in a month and a half. Notably, the colors and everything getting that September crispness seem to be just a bit ahead compared to normal rn with the mostly cool and dry August. Definitely going to try and enjoy this month.

Yeah the next week to 10 days look like a pretty typical early September forecast. No complaints here at all. It'll be interesting seeing how the first part of fall evolves here, as in some ways it already feels like we made the switch from summer to fall conditions even before the heat of the last couple of days. Notably, even with the drier August we are still running at #5 YTD for precip, so it'll be interesting seeing if that continues or not.

It definitely was a shock walking out of work last night into the 86/75 degree air at 8pm with it practically dark out. That's the weird thing about heat like this at this time of year. This is pretty close to the same level of sunlight that we have in early April when we get stuff like 4/2 earlier this year and 4/13/18.

Normally a heatwave like this would feel more like a nuisance than anything at this point in the summer, but because we have been so cool for the last like 6 weeks that this is going to be a bit of a shock for a couple days. Cannot complain about the last 6 weeks though, it's been a really pleasant, if boring, stretch of weather.

Yeah no real complaints here from a temperature perspective, it's been great! The excessive rain got to be very annoying, but even then that stopped about a month ago. The last month has been one of the better month-long summer stretches in a while it feels like. And the fact is we could go another 2-3 weeks of this at least considering this is pretty much the average kind of weather for September.

So a blob popped up here after the main MCS moved through and just like that it's dumped another 2-3 inches on top of the prior rainfall and triggered yet another couple of FFWs. Well the dry weather was nice while it lasted.

As of rn this is looking pretty similar geographically to Ike's remnants in 2008. With potential a similar intensity in regards to rainfall in some areas. Granted, the wind threat should not be there basically at all unlike Ike. But still, the potential is there for probably the most significant rainfall from tropical remnants in the Midwest since Cristobal, if not Ike.

At least that part of the region has been pretty dry this summer so far, so it should be alright for flooding as long as things don't get too heavy. We can't take any of it up here at this point so it needs to stay down there. Although the Mississippi being in flood stage because of the flooding in the upper basin and the Missouri basin could throw a wrench into that a little bit.