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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    At 48 hours, it's 5 MB stronger and a bit more north, but the precip shield is less expansive. Odd. Maybe it's more occluded.
  2. RDRY
    Here's hoping this GFS run ingests bad initialization data, and is discarded.
  3. RDRY
    Looks like the Berks get in on some decent wraparound snows and probably some upslope with the NAM -- the upper levels looked better than 6z, but the surface didn't really reflect it.
  4. RDRY
    Yup. Back in the ballgame.
  5. RDRY
    Such a touchy setup. SW in California; PV dropping south; speed, depth and orientation of the trough; surface placement of the coastal low. Any of them with major downstream impacts. And still enough lead time.
  6. RDRY
    The western ridge keeps nudging ever-so-slightly higher the past 4 GFS runs.
  7. RDRY
    Is this really a significant model failure? 60+ hours out, they sampled the California energy slightly different, which cut it off from the emerging trough, so the trough doesn't dig as far south, doesn't sharpen up as much, and the storm develops a few hundred miles east.
  8. RDRY
    Probably shifted south along with the low. Same reason the midwest low shifted south and east from previous run.
  9. RDRY
    And the ICON is Daniel Jones.
  10. RDRY
    Well, now I'm expecting flurries and calm winds.
  11. RDRY
    I heard the ICON runs on Lotus.
  12. RDRY
    Trough now slightly negative at 75 on the NAM. Useful.
  13. RDRY
    Extrapolating past 90 hrs, does this move north or east of north?
  14. RDRY
    GFS -- exit stage right.
  15. RDRY
    Looks like it's pulled from the GFS. 2-6 for the Berks -- ouch!!
  16. RDRY
    Indeed. But it looks like the GFS surface is not quite in sync with its upper levels.
  17. RDRY
    GFS is a stubborn SOB. Takes its sweet time getting there.
  18. RDRY
    Too bad the surface low isn't placed on that closed contour to its west.
  19. RDRY
    Southwest energy held back a bit more on this EURO run. Could be trouble.
  20. RDRY
    Classic GFS -- getting there in increments.
  21. RDRY
    Not as good as 6z with the southern energy, but certainly better than 12z. Actually, at 96 hours, this looks almost exactly the same as yesterday's 0z.
  22. RDRY
    Dr. No
  23. RDRY
    All that energy getting dumped into a pretty confined space.
  24. RDRY
  25. RDRY
    Reality being the very next model run.
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