MountainGeek

I think the persistent AK vortex and associated record cold is another interesting indicator of the overall pattern and likely results. Based on typical wavelengths/troughs/ridges, there seems to be a significant association between that and a mild/warm eastern US. I think the most recent year we had a similar persistent record AK cold was 2012-2013. That year didn't go so well for us either.....although NW did get pasted with mashed potatoes in March.

Paging @WxWatcher007....you should be planning to work lots of overtime in the near future..... crankyweatherguy Replying to @ericfisher It died on November 28th, apparently. Will continue the good old "next window for a storm is" song and dance. See if one or two click a little S&E and see what they give. Interior has done just fine "snowfall anomaly" wise. (which is why I hold utter disdain for the metric) crankyweatherguy Retweeted GIF

Perhaps we've been missing a key tellie - when epic failure reaches the ultimate heights and we achieve the fabled +++++++NAO, the sheer weight of the suckage collapses in on itself and becomes a means for us to get snow.

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 34m34 minutes ago Lead system hasn't moved much if at all. Our incoming storm is starting to slow in response. The kicker won't. Eye on the lead system and how the storm system behaves in kind in its wake the next 24-30 hours. Refer to Videos for "why" that matters (1 of 2 capture related issues).

Showme to the rescue -- I don't care if you have to fudge the dates and post old snowmaps...anything to pull folks back from full tilt....

I'm more concerned about precip than temps....let's get that initial band as heavy as possible!

NWS seems to have increased totals a bit with the most recent update:

For the weeenies and non-experts out there.......can you please refrain from posting definitive statements re model runs? If you have to ask whether you are one of the experienced posters, the answer is NO. We have plenty of experts who can handle the analysis and mixing in bad analysis just causes confusion.

Instead of getting all butthurt, why not hear what people are telling you and just tone it down a bit on the "certainty" that is coming across in your posts as somewhat arrogant? I'm sure we'd all love to have your thoughts and input, and people will definitely give you the respect you deserve over time if you become a solid contributor. I'm assuming that you aren't actually arrogant, you're just coming across that way at times because you're relatively new to the board and you may not realize how your writing style looks to others. No way you did this for 30+ years and didn't get your ego stomped good at least a few times by the fickle nature of the game. So, again -- we'd love to have your contributions, may I suggest taking an introspective look at how you might be coming across to others and give them a chance to get to know and respect your expertise over time.

I would also think it makes sense to weight the EPS more heavily since the GEFS has already blinked, and EPS seems to be holding steady atm.

I love how quiet it gets in here when we actually have a legit snow event underway.

I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place. However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO.

The point was to try some reverse psychology on the snow gods....if you can't find it, maybe they can't either. Although I suppose I could change it to "Cleveland Park PUMMELED".....

Done.

For those who are interested, some good background from the ECMWF. Also notable is the fact that winter forecasts tend to be more reliable due to longer wavelengths. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/153/meteorology/25-years-ensemble-forecasting-ecmwf Evolution of ensemble forecast quality Thanks to model upgrades, improvements in the data assimilation system, the use of more observations, and the ENS configuration changes discussed above, the ENS performance has increased substantially during the past 25 years. Figure 7 Time evolution, from 1 January 1995 to today, of the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) of ENS forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height over the northern hemisphere, for lead times of 24 hours, 72 hours, 120 hours, 168 hours and 240 hours. Forecasts are verified against operational analyses. The more or less regular pattern of peaks and troughs in each line stems from differences in predictability related to the seasons: winter weather tends to be more predictable than summer weather.

Can you imagine a world with guaranteed backyard Jebwalks every time the temp drops below 29F? You even get to choose whether you want falling snow during the Jebwalk or just want to admire all the snow that "fell" overnight in the ripping-fatties-all-night-long-personal-blizzard.

Weenies take heart! A White Christmas is NEVER out of reach: https://www.snowathome.com/ The SNOWatHOME™ web site is for anyone who is interested in home snow making for any reason. SNOWatHOME has been in business nearly 20 years! We have done extensive research on making man made snow and designing home snow machines that can produce a blizzard of snow just like the snow makers at ski resorts. • You live in a area that occasionally has freezing temperatures but rarely has natural snowfall. • Create your own snowboard and ski terrain park! • Guarantee a White Christmas, home decorating like never before! • Businesses, attract holiday customers and free media attention! • Scientific testing. • Backyard sliding and skiing hill, be the envy of the neighborhood! • School science project, win best of show! • Or just for fun, the list goes on. • Not cold enough to make snow? Try our Blizzard Wizard Special Effects snowmakers for year round indoor and outdoor fun! @Jebman you should be installing one of these to tide you over while you suffer the snow drought in TX.

PSU sez this is a lock!

Weenies DO NOT JUMP due to shutout period coming up, and don't let long-range NWP drive you to despair.... May I suggest an additional elective: Guru Mashups: How to cherry-pick expert commentary to support your desired outcome

BUMP!

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. @Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Light snow started here - 32/18 WV Blue Ridge between Berryville and Purcellville

22/16 - WV Blue Ridge between Purcellville and Berryville