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MountainGeek

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Everything posted by MountainGeek

  1. Paging @showmethesnow. The squirrel has been ambushed by the nut. I REPEAT, THE SQUIRREL HAS BEEN AMBUSHED BY THE NUT!
  2. Let's do this! Things are trending the right way, and @showmethesnow hasn't spoken in cleartext about this one so we're safe at the moment. If you ignore the soundings, this looks great!
  3. For those who are interested, some good background from the ECMWF. Also notable is the fact that winter forecasts tend to be more reliable due to longer wavelengths. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/153/meteorology/25-years-ensemble-forecasting-ecmwf Evolution of ensemble forecast quality Thanks to model upgrades, improvements in the data assimilation system, the use of more observations, and the ENS configuration changes discussed above, the ENS performance has increased substantially during the past 25 years. Figure 7 Time evolution, from 1 January 1995 to today, of the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) of ENS forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height over the northern hemisphere, for lead times of 24 hours, 72 hours, 120 hours, 168 hours and 240 hours. Forecasts are verified against operational analyses. The more or less regular pattern of peaks and troughs in each line stems from differences in predictability related to the seasons: winter weather tends to be more predictable than summer weather.
  4. Can you imagine a world with guaranteed backyard Jebwalks every time the temp drops below 29F? You even get to choose whether you want falling snow during the Jebwalk or just want to admire all the snow that "fell" overnight in the ripping-fatties-all-night-long-personal-blizzard.
  5. Weenies take heart! A White Christmas is NEVER out of reach: https://www.snowathome.com/ The SNOWatHOME™ web site is for anyone who is interested in home snow making for any reason. SNOWatHOME has been in business nearly 20 years! We have done extensive research on making man made snow and designing home snow machines that can produce a blizzard of snow just like the snow makers at ski resorts. • You live in a area that occasionally has freezing temperatures but rarely has natural snowfall. • Create your own snowboard and ski terrain park! • Guarantee a White Christmas, home decorating like never before! • Businesses, attract holiday customers and free media attention! • Scientific testing. • Backyard sliding and skiing hill, be the envy of the neighborhood! • School science project, win best of show! • Or just for fun, the list goes on. • Not cold enough to make snow? Try our Blizzard Wizard Special Effects snowmakers for year round indoor and outdoor fun! @Jebman you should be installing one of these to tide you over while you suffer the snow drought in TX.
  6. Weenies DO NOT JUMP due to shutout period coming up, and don't let long-range NWP drive you to despair.... May I suggest an additional elective: Guru Mashups: How to cherry-pick expert commentary to support your desired outcome
  7. Interesting enough changes at 120 for sure -- let's see if there's more support from other models. And who are we kidding, what else is there to track?
  8. 1.5” here and precip stopped for now, which is great for the kids to get a chance to play without getting soaked by rain. 3rd accumulating event in 3 weeks, a pretty good start IMO. Best event of the fall so far.....
  9. Wouldn't be the first time that HP and blocking are overdone at this range and end up easing off as we get closer in time.
  10. Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want!
  11. Could be just noise, but looks like we lose the 850s a smidge earlier on the 18z GFS.
  12. Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here. Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing.
  13. Check the accumulated positive snow depth change.....much less impressive. Verbatim most of the "snow" would be sleet or FZR....but IMO any form of frozen slop/mix is more interesting than just plain rain. Gotta hope we can keep "trending" colder as we get closer....
  14. There's always extrapolation of the 3K NAM.....
  15. Better than our chance of hitting the Dec 22 "storm".....I like it that we're getting something reasonably possible within the 72 hr window, and trends seem to be going the right way for once. It's pretty much a lock that it's going to get washed away regardless, so expectations can't be all that high.
  16. You're always welcome up here on the mountain.
  17. Maybe we can back into a light/modest event in under 72 hrs.....wouldn't be the first time. IIRC the "best" event of last winter for DC proper didn't look all that great right up until game time. Let's take a ride on the Baby Bump Thump Train!
  18. Not good enough for @Ji...you trying to convince him to jump early?
  19. Dec 9/10 last year right? But this time around hopefully we're not dealing with a brick wall of confluence.
  20. Personally I hope all of the cars will be making contact with the ground.... I think we are both in a good spot to hopefully get an inch or so at minimum, models looking decent to achieve that bar.
  21. Didn't we have a similar situation in 13-14 where people would fret over a crappy pattern in the LR and just around the corner, but the bad looks frequently fell apart once we got closer in time? Last year was the inverse, where the good looks stayed 10-15 days out most of the winter. Not saying this year will play out the same, just interesting.....
  22. Not to mention that it seems equally likely that the strat can actually HURT us instead of helping - if I'm understanding him correctly, @Isotherm tags last year's much-anticipated SSW event as significantly contributing to the MJO hanging out in warm phases. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3 Along that vein, I actually think this winter was too UNSTABLE in a number of ways. The MJO simply did not cease: constant propagation from amplified phase to phase, obviating any stable PNA or cold pattern from becoming locked in, compared to winters in which we stabilize in the colder MJO Nino phases. The negative 50mb QBO and thereafter the massive SSW only aided further to augment the incessant MJO signal.
  23. Ummm...weather will do what weather wants to do? Given the GFS cold bias I'd like to see a couple other models get on board pretty soon.....otherwise cold rain is the better bet.
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