Jump to content

MountainGeek

Members
  • Posts

    478
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by MountainGeek

  1. Ack........don't use "jump" and "east" so close together like that..... EPS sure has a lot of classic Miller-B screw jobs in the mix....definitely want to see continued better trends.
  2. Yeah I'd like to see the ensembles continue to improve for the threat window first...those previous storms where the ops lead the way were a little disconcerting.
  3. Sunday, Tuesday, and then we get obliterated by a snowicane next weekend. At least for the next few minutes.....
  4. For Friday or next Wed or Feb 30th? SOO much tracking ahead, I'm already getting exhausted.....
  5. Looks like NAM is getting on board -- I will feel better when all the models are on board with giving us the finger
  6. If snow isn't in the cards , then ice or sleet is fine.....anything to continue building the glacier we have going from the past 2 weeks.
  7. FWIW....GFS looks like a little more juice for DC and SE.....
  8. We going to roll this thread into obs? Also, I wonder what LWX thinks of this event, someone should post WWAs...
  9. I think sleet is often in the 3-1 range.....so call it 1.5" of sleet ftw!
  10. PSU -- do you remember what the Euro was showing for the Bob Chill storm in 2019? I seem to recall that it was way drier than reality even up to and during the early parts of the storm. Maybe it just isn't as hot with this type of event.
  11. Same here -- we were forecast to hit 45 and will only make it to 38, and it has been cloudy almost the entire time other than a couple of brief peeks of sun.
  12. So what you're really saying is, expect a juiced wave 1 and amped wave 2?
  13. It did lead the way sniffing out the extent of the warm air intrusion for the Dec storm, so I don't like seeing it come in warmer than the globals....but weenie handbook sez it's just NAM being NAM at this range so nothing to worry about!
  14. Looks tasty -- we're dumping pretty good now, so I think maybe this lasts a bit longer if you're still getting the goods further west.
  15. Yup -- a pretty good win for Winchester. I'm hoping to get one more good pasting out of that outer band, maybe make it to 5". Regardless, snow on snow and a beautiful Sunday morning out there.
  16. 30, back to mod/heavy SN, about 3.5" so far....absolutely gorgeous out there
  17. I'm on the Blue Ridge directly east of you, and yes -- never changed over to sleet or FZR here, it's been alternating between mod/heavy and light needles since around 9AM. Currently mod SN, around 8 inches storm total so far.
  18. Does this mean you are staying up for the most important Euro run of the year?
  19. Well it seems to have our Jan 9 MECS a touch slower with the Maine hammer a bit more east....a few dozen more adjustments and we're in bizness.....we have PLENTY of time....
  20. That depends --- does it show blue over you?
  21. Models are constantly being upgraded/improved for overall accuracy, which results in less accumulated error out in time. There have been major improvements in the 4-7 day range vs say 10 or 20 years ago. So in many cases the error isn't "off" as much as it used to be, which means less adjustment as we get closer to game time. That said, different patterns can be more or less likely to shift (the super-gurus here track the known biases of the models and can tell us generally whether the scenario is one that is likely to adjust one way or another). Edit -- and ninjaed by @CAPE.....with the specific pattern analysis....
  22. made it to 10" here, still snowing pretty good...it's a sandwich of about 7" snow, 1" hard crust of frozen sleet/ice, and then 2" of snow on top.....this is going to make an AWESOME glacier for the next few days. Wonder if snowcover can hold through Christmas......
  23. A huge chunk of this forum will beat their annual total from last year and we're not even into our prime snow climo period.....I call that a HUGE win regardless of what happens with the rest of this storm. Something GOOD to remember about 2020 at least.....
  24. 4" on the ground so far; ripping fatties, viz well under 1/4mi 27/26
×
×
  • Create New...