MountainGeek

6.5", still moderate SN

A huge chunk of this forum will beat their annual total from last year and we're not even into our prime snow climo period.....I call that a HUGE win regardless of what happens with the rest of this storm. Something GOOD to remember about 2020 at least.....

4" on the ground so far; ripping fatties, viz well under 1/4mi 27/26

Closing in on 1" here - moderate SN 27/25 Since @Jebman said we're getting destroyed, I decided to go ahead and break out the emergency water rations:

Grass/leaves covered, driveway caving, moderate SN 29/20

Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with.....

If that verifies will you come teach us how to shovel snow? No one remembers how to shovel anymore.....

I can offer counseling and moral support if thundersnow terrifies you .......it looks like we have a shot at some interesting dynamics out our way......

Of course --- NWP never verifies when it shows good for us, but modeled bad setups always verify 100%! IIRC, this time last year we had exactly that: no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. NWP and most outlooks were calling for a great winter with lots of potential. Signs looked great going into last winter, and that turned into a disaster. So maybe things look terrible going into this winter, but there's still plenty of time and luck for the reality to turn out at least mediocre (which would surpass last year) or get us somewhat close to median.

Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair.

Here's a pretty cool ENSO - snowfall chart from Josh Timlin; this clearly illustrates many of the ongoing discussion points, especially in terms of setting general expectations for the upcoming winter: https://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast. Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET: https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

I would also think it makes sense to weight the EPS more heavily since the GEFS has already blinked, and EPS seems to be holding steady atm.

I love how quiet it gets in here when we actually have a legit snow event underway.

I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place. However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO.

The point was to try some reverse psychology on the snow gods....if you can't find it, maybe they can't either. Although I suppose I could change it to "Cleveland Park PUMMELED".....

Done.

For those who are interested, some good background from the ECMWF. Also notable is the fact that winter forecasts tend to be more reliable due to longer wavelengths. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/153/meteorology/25-years-ensemble-forecasting-ecmwf Evolution of ensemble forecast quality Thanks to model upgrades, improvements in the data assimilation system, the use of more observations, and the ENS configuration changes discussed above, the ENS performance has increased substantially during the past 25 years. Figure 7 Time evolution, from 1 January 1995 to today, of the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) of ENS forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height over the northern hemisphere, for lead times of 24 hours, 72 hours, 120 hours, 168 hours and 240 hours. Forecasts are verified against operational analyses. The more or less regular pattern of peaks and troughs in each line stems from differences in predictability related to the seasons: winter weather tends to be more predictable than summer weather.

Can you imagine a world with guaranteed backyard Jebwalks every time the temp drops below 29F? You even get to choose whether you want falling snow during the Jebwalk or just want to admire all the snow that "fell" overnight in the ripping-fatties-all-night-long-personal-blizzard.

Weenies take heart! A White Christmas is NEVER out of reach: https://www.snowathome.com/ The SNOWatHOME™ web site is for anyone who is interested in home snow making for any reason. SNOWatHOME has been in business nearly 20 years! We have done extensive research on making man made snow and designing home snow machines that can produce a blizzard of snow just like the snow makers at ski resorts. • You live in a area that occasionally has freezing temperatures but rarely has natural snowfall. • Create your own snowboard and ski terrain park! • Guarantee a White Christmas, home decorating like never before! • Businesses, attract holiday customers and free media attention! • Scientific testing. • Backyard sliding and skiing hill, be the envy of the neighborhood! • School science project, win best of show! • Or just for fun, the list goes on. • Not cold enough to make snow? Try our Blizzard Wizard Special Effects snowmakers for year round indoor and outdoor fun! @Jebman you should be installing one of these to tide you over while you suffer the snow drought in TX.

PSU sez this is a lock!

Weenies DO NOT JUMP due to shutout period coming up, and don't let long-range NWP drive you to despair.... May I suggest an additional elective: Guru Mashups: How to cherry-pick expert commentary to support your desired outcome

BUMP!

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. @Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Light snow started here - 32/18 WV Blue Ridge between Berryville and Purcellville