Paleocene

At least it's imaginary cold after our 3rd rainstorm in a row:

Yeah, 00z had the transfer to the coast happen much further south.

Monster block traps the big low that runs through the lakes next weekend.... it goes over toronto then retrogrades back to SW of the hudson bay 

Latest NAM suggests an inch+ for most of the area.

Reeeeeee!

Truckloads of medium rare rain are being dumped onto my roof in silver spring

Steady, grass watering rain here inside the beltway in Silver Spring.

wishcasting this trend to continue

Sleeting in 20910 silver spring. Frozen precip win! Here in the equivalent climate to savannah ga

Nothing in silver spring

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

White out at times probably. 

I promised my wife (from Massachusetts, she misses snow) we could walk around in the snow before it flips to rain. Wishcasting for the win

Currently 12 degrees in downtown silver spring, expecting heavy snow and 6-12" accumulations 

Still potential for front end snow/ice before the flip next tuesday morning (much better N&W)

Still potential for some sleety/flakey start in the immediate metro area tomorrow morning, fingers crossed for a jebwalk.

Hey, at least the ground outside is frozen right now? Now that we can't get frozen precip to accumulate any more, I take the small wins. The ground is hard, and cold. Winter? Right?? RIGHT????

Also, as lame as the LR op GFS looks, methinks one shouldn't trust it.

2 minutes ago, Pixee said:

My neighborhood has volunteered to put bags of ice on the streets to cool them!

I'm gonna turn on my hose to add some cold water to sligo creek; should cool off the anacostia for you to get some river effect snow

GFS holds on possibility of a front end thump of snow for the monster rainstorm coming next tuesday. NW of the metropolitan fringe (areas getting snow saturday) should do best. But we all flip to heavy rain. 

GFS has this thing bombing out off long island and nuking SNE... lucky jerks

After the thump, this gives me concerns:

GFS consistent with NAM with snow at first, but thermals are close at the surface for DC metro area.

I am choosing to believe that this panel on the 3k nam is true. it holds for a few hours but 850s are warming (winds out of the south at that level)

verbatim on the NAM 3k, north of I-70 could hold as snow most of the afternoon? someone please correct me if I'm wrong

Precip moving in at 15z sat.

17 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

My wife breathlessly reported to me this past Sun/Mon (based on what the media was feeding her) on a "major winter storm" incoming for NoVA this weekend. I just grinned at her and said, "give it time...you'll take your 33 and rain on Sat and enjoy it."   She scoffed, I shrugged.

Knowing that I'd get much closer to a realistic forecast discussion here, I forced myself to wait until late last evening to check in for some closer-to-showtime truth. Some good analyses as always, and the usual few bouts of back/forth sniping -- likely borne out of frustration with a retreating rain/snow line.

My LOL "gut" forecast shared with my wife was correct, at least for SE FfxCo. Maybe we'll get an hour of snow TV on Sat, but whatever. A decade or more ago, I'd be one of the folks here having a meltdown...but I just can't get upset about this stuff anymore.

I have a friend who is a fed who works in the PGH region; with people in this region. At a virtual all hands yesterday, he said people in the DC region were honking about a "major winter storm" this weekend which would lead to closures on Monday.  Hilarious, but man, the proliferation of bad analysis of models/snow maps is problematic.

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too.

Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. 

"South and very weak" scenario.