Paleocene

Look at how heavy that subtropical juice is coming in: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=nrnmidat-02-24-1   

If only it were 5 degrees colder

7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

so is the epic pattern dead? lots of mixed signals in here...

I think the big threat, if we still have it, is not until after this weekend. And it's still there, it hasn't evaporated. Patience required.  And with short run modeling being haywire this year, maybe we can get a quick win (win = seeing snowflakes) in the meantime.

Northeast Maryland....

lol versus snow depth

Dang, if this modeling holds through 00z we're gonna go from peanuts/drizzle to cancelled schools everywhere.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wonder if 18z gfs not a suppressed for pd

Big dog woof?

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

PD 3 definitely aint there on the 12z GFS

Might be kinda cold though? 

Hoping the GFS can pull something off for PD weekend, against all hope

Not gonna snow again until next nuclear winter and/or ice age 

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Hmmm   Feb 2010

 

Does anybody have a link to a quick explainer for how SSW impacts things at other levels of the atmosphere? My eyes glaze over at 10mb zonal winds, but if I had any idea how this impacted the charts I do kind of understand thanks to this board (250mb, 500mb, 850mb, surface), it would really help. Thx!

13 hours ago, Rvarookie said:

Bout time to admit defeat. Def a bummer because my lil one is getting older and hasn’t had many good events like my older boys did but is what it is. Least it’s only 42 days until spring….can’t wait to go on long runs with birds chirping and everything turning green. 

Sun angle basically 90°

18 minutes ago, snowfan said:

CMC solution makes it tempting to road-trip to downeast Maine for this one. Holy shit. 

My in-laws live in Hancock County, sort of near Bar Harbor. They're in for a pummeling. They got hit really hard with flooding/rain/wind in the December and January big rainstorms. Lost power for a week before xmas... luckily they have a big generator and a good propane supplier.

Man that sun angle is getting ROUGH

Folks, is the big dog gonna go woof at 300+ hours on the operational GFS???!?!?! IDFC and IDFK, but I want some of that sweet sweet digital blue

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0047&yr=2024

SoCal is gonna need @Jebmanto come shovel out the rain... That's a hell of a meso discussion 

12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Like I said, the meltdowns are gonna be epic.  

I'm here for it. I got a week with 5+ inches on the ground and highs below 33 inside the beltway. Felt like 1878. Anything else is gravy.

Delving into 2010 for a moment. I was in south central PA and don't remember mixing issues for either of the February storms. Did temps flirt with freezing for either one along the metros/95 urban corridors? Any mixed precip? I remember storm #2 was cold. 

petition to rename this thread to #outdoor-exercise-before-it-gets-cold-again-maybe

That was a pretty interesting 12z op GFS run. Starting to see the nice 500mb plots in 350+ hour land on the ensembles result in precious, beautiful, digital blue. And vodka cold!

Ravens offense is booty cheeks today

Anyone else headed to the pool this afternoon?

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Odds of us hitting the 40”-50” predicted totals by years end with where we are today and the expected upcoming golden pattern?

I've got about 10" here inside the beltway thus far.  18" = average, I'd be happy. 25" = very, very good.  30" + great.  more than 35"... stellar, winter to remember. If the pattern shakes out as intended, I think my 25" goal is possible for my area.

13 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Different climate up your way; the longest recorded stretch with snow on the ground in DC is 29 days  from Jan 20 to Feb 17, 1961

Good to know. Do you have data on that? I was just reflecting this morning that our now 8+ day stretch of snow cover inside the beltway is anomalous in my 14-years of being here dataset.

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg…

yep. lots of warmish rainstorms for the 95 corridor. fun to click through with this map: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/