Paleocene

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

That's the 0Z

Here's 12Z.

 

thanks, edited my post. the amped-ness warms i-95 above freezing, and less precip overall. 850s not great.

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm gonna keep it real I would rather the storm fade into oblivion then this be a NW of 95 special. Sorry

Temps sort of weird on the UKMET, we get a decent slug of precip:

but this is the warmest panel at the surface, amped/sleet/rain

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS a bit further south/offshore compared to 6z.

 

Still a lot of spread in these lows:

2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Do we have a breakout of snow by model?  

10:1 ratios, for tuesday's system:

ICON: 4-6 for the DC/Balt metros, with less to the NW and SW (narrow stripe)

GFS: a less compelling stripe with 2-4 centered around the DC metro, less to NW and SW

CMC: like the ICON on steroids, with a nice 6-10" for the broad swathe of the area.

CMC full weenie map, lol

What's that additional low doing down there in the gulf

Looks like the snow does pile up on the ICON:

ICON isn't bad, but it's the ICON: 

Low doesn't really develop until its off NJ. Still get some decent light snow in the metro areas

84 hour NAM time:

06z GFS:

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure I read an AFD posted here earlier that stated the Euro didn't have data ingested and that would resume with the 12z run today? 

That update said the new euro machine learning model didn't run for some reason. Regular Euro was fine I think.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw
 

Translation besides it's hot?

Just now, stormtracker said:

FOLKS....

this is the HH we've been waiting for. take that 12z euro!!!

Love this throwback site for instantweathermaps

Just now, mattie g said:

Negative

He is sometimes tolerable, sometimes annoying AF. Most on this board fall into this category, so, shrug?

do we have a discussion anywhere on solar panels? my new array hit 15kwh generated today (it was installed in december). pretty cool to watch production increase bit by bit as we move away from the solstice. clouds are now my enemy

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

for reference, that 09 east of Georgia is the OP. massive weak/southern outlier 

Right, thanks. Compare to the op:

12 EPS snow depth mean

00z

Not trying to junk it up too much with maps in here, but at 00z weds, the presentation of the EPS is pretty similar. Maybe a hair east. Lows more tightly clustered around the mean.

12z EPS

versus 00z

So, 12z summary of 120-144 OP runs:

CMC - west/rain95/snow favored spots

UKMET - west decent snow/bit of snow for 95

GFS - nice for all

Euro - what storm?

ICON - east/meh/nothingburger

Let's take the median ??

Just now, Terpeast said:

Is that ukie trending further SE? 

To my untrained eye its path is a bit further south (and east) on 12z.

00z: 

12z:

Just now, stormtracker said:

Y’all want a thread today after the euro or tomm? Pros get a little more weight.  

I vote tomorrow AM if it holds thru 06z

quick someone tell me why the GFS is right and the CMC is wrong

because its the CMC, right?