Paleocene

CMC snow. A tick southeast 50+miles, and less broad/generous with QPF

Eastern shore special.

Well, whatever we do get out of the gulf is headed toward some nice cold air. Friday AM temps:

GFS running. Let's get our forum-wide 3-6" !

A rare blue-sky arctic day around here. Local weatherbug reports 27F, with 15mph wind gusts. Snow blowing off the trees and whipping around. Montgomery County ignoring plowing the tertiary residential streets. Deep winter feel, 10/10.  

Final tally (after some compaction in the afternoon) was about 7" in my yard. That's averaged across several spots at 8am today. I cleared the driveway around 4pm yesterday and there was probably another 1-1.5" on there, but it had blown around a bit so hard to get an accurate measurement. That's near downtown Silver Spring.

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

No plowing or salting yet on my side street of Colesville, MD! Low of 19.2 which I am at right now. 

Moco has also skipped my street and neighboring small residential streets thus far. I don't mind (working at home)

Just now, dukeblue219 said:

Sligo Creek?

Close, up on a hill in a park above the creek. Off Dale drive

Eager to see GEFS low positions. This one on the op ticks close in to NYC.

Wow radar filling in great. Very light snow in Silver Spring, just went on a pre sunset jebwalk. Probably 6.5" on grass. Deep in spots! Great storm.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes...it seems like it's in between the Euro and GFS at the end of its run.  I dunno

84 hour NAM so this is likely pointless but the southern energy was held back more compared to the GFS.

Anyone else extrapolating the NAM

Just now, TowsonTownT said:

Anyone ready to give odds on area schools opening tomorrow?

I posted earlier, but my kid's district (Montgomery County MD) already closed. IDK about baltimore metro area.

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is there a chance this could be a one and done season and today’s snow is all there will be?

Yep. Go enjoy it while you can! That would suck and is unlikely...but never say never around here.

Just now, Alfoman said:

The band north of DC finally creeping down into the city with some lighter stuff back building behind it. First flakes since noon! 

Nice. I'm only ~ 5 miles north of you and we've had flakes here and there in the last 3 hours.

Montgomery County MD Public Schools closed for tomorrow.

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah this is nice.  Bulging a little bit to the SW I like the look of the radar.  This might have some staying power.

Yeah, I'm up to moderate snow. Looks beautiful again. I hope I have to shovel for the third time. 8am, 12pm, 4pm.

EPS low pressures

GEFS

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

It's been a nice little band! Those to my north probably did even better, but it's been pretty light or steady for a couple of hours now. Can't be too mad. 

 

Nice, a little southern arm of that band is about to go over me...

Yep, right on schedule, some light snow resumed. Moderate size flakes

UKIE attempting something CMC-like, not sure if it will turn the corner at all.

Some snow for southern VA

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's just bad luck exacerbated by small sample size.  We've been in a generally bad pattern for a long time, which means less snow chances.  When you reduce the number of snow events it increases variance and the chances of something like this happening if you get unlucky a few times.  Additionally we've been stuck in a nina like pacific base state, and that does increase the chances of sliders and storms that affect further southeast in our regions MORE wrt averages.  

My area for instance, dud REALLY well in good snowfall years like 1996, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2015.  Yes everyone did good...but up here got crazy high snowfall in those years...over 100" in 2010 and around 90" in 2014 for example.  We haven't had many of those "good" snowfall years lately for this area to clean up.  In bad years, we do tend to do better...but not as much better wrt to averages than in better years.  

WRT Baltimore, I think its just been bad luck...you missed better snowfall by like 10 miles in either direction several times recently.  I think over a longer sample size that will even out.  

Agreed. I moved to immediate DC metro in 2010 (post big storm winter). From 2010-2018, your area smoked our area every year. Since 2019, we've done better in a few storms. Just random chance @Maestrobjwa

The best long-range model tracking days are when it's snowing! #traintracks #snowtown

So if we average the GFS and CMC, we get nuked. Right?

Stronger HP/good CAD (snowpack??!) and we will get smoked by this. But we play the track gamble game along 95.

This looks pretty good/close.