Paleocene

Nam'd a bit on latest run. Flips to rain.

Just now, Steve25 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that cold hasn't fully shown up on the other models recently, has it? 

Canadian ensemble also has a half decent cold push around that time frame. I don't know (not an expert) if any of teh other ensembles/ops go past 240?

meanwhile euro not bad with the front end thump mid week for northern forum:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not this time - maybe a pity T-1" for favored spots. 

worth noting that euro had the low about 100 miles south in central tennessee at 00z last night, for the same time next weds. headed towards GFS steeper cut solution but maybe we're getting better confluence/colder air

Just now, IronTy said:

Forsythias at the top of my driveway are in bloom as of this morning.  Crab grass won't be far behind.  Guess I better sharpen the mower blade.  

I noticed daffodils sprouting all over the place last week/this week. Snowdrops gonna bloom soon... crocuses before we know it.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You can't trust any specific details at that range but that is the window, AFTER the 26th Wave IF we can get a wave to ride the boundary before the pac jet retracts too much and the SE ridge pumps to kingdom come.  The question is how long is that window, where does the boundary set up, and do we have an active STJ at the right time.  But its the first time in a long time I think there is even a chance for us.  

I did notice it looks consistently colder north of us after about hour 200, which has been lacking all winter. Montreal has been raining. But I'm sure the little wave D10-11 that runs through the lakes will trend stronger into a massive cutter and pull too much warm in air front of it, so the potential threat that rides the boundary after 300H doesnt have enough cold :-D

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the point I'm trying to make is that CC is just as responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 as it is for winters like this one. would make zero sense to say otherwise. like people are picking and choosing what it's applicable for because it's been a crappy few winters and it's bugging me haha

Yes, I agree, those boom winters happened during our much hotter base state too. Sure, the atmosphere and the oceans have warmed more since 2016, and emissions are rocketing upward, but that doesn't change that we have these recent boom years. They may repeat, or they may not. TBD.

Our average annual snowfall is decreasing. Our average annual temperatures are increasing. The chance of a boom snow year (and individual boom storms) have slightly increased; this slight increase is not enough to make up for our loss of average/marginal events. End result = less average snow over time

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't

I hold out hope for this too (and sometimes wonder if CC contributed to 09-10).

But aren't we moving away from that becoming more likely? CC may increase the probability of a boom winter, but doesn't it also decrease the probability of that happening sequentially?

This is why I wish we had a bigger than 130 year dataset for annual snowfall. We have had warm periods before. How anomalous is this one?

4 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It's just too warm!  I barely even need anything other than a light jacket anymore.  My gloves and hat rarely make it out the door.  It's undeniable.

I bought myself a fancy north face parka-style jacket last year when it went on clearance. I've worn it on about 3 days this winter during the around xmas cold snap. otherwise i've worn it in Maine, and in upstate NY lol.  

It will continue to live in the closet. At least it won't wear out fast...right?

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm aware, but it is so painful to see how classic it looks before cutting to Ohio, maybe we can get a miracle for once but most likely its a hopefully couple inches of snow northwest of the metros to rain.

Agreed 100% -- the euro prior to 132 hours almost cues up jaws music in my head. 

This will keep me in the game but I am mindful of how the euro had a more positive depiction (than GFS) of the pre-christmas arctic front storm deal at one week out. GFS won

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It looks so close to something great.

 

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time,  and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

Euro doesn't cut as strong as the GFS with the mid-week deal next week.  Maybe some front end? Marginal temps.  Stronger high in quebec but mid level winds out of the toasty south over our region. Let's pray for stronger CAD and a further SE track

Congrats Chicago on the 25th storm.

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Someone needs to start a thread for the Sunday system. It is only three days away. And while it looks bleak for most in the subforum. It doesnt for others. 12Z NAM has blue all the way into NW DC this run.

Yeah, better than expected. Snow depth change maps don't look quite as positive, but still blues. Surface temps above freezing for most of the region during the snowfall after 18z sunday.

Temps are torchy on the GFS for the first thing that the ICON tried to put blue on us for. 540 line is up by interstate 80, surface temps around 40 in our region.

3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

 

we like ike

edit: ninja'd

20 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I grew up in Frederick county between Frederick and Thurmont. I Remember alot of those snow to ice events that were loaded with moisture. There was 1 strom that year that had hour and hours of sleet. We had several inches of sleet. I've never seen anything like that again. After one of the snows my neighbor came over and snowblowed the backyard to get down to the ice from the previous storm. It made a pretty cool hockey rink for a few weeks.

Some of the storms had temps in the teens with pouring sleet.

I grew up in/around Harrisburg (don't worry, I've made it out and I don't go back). January 1994 was astonishing, I was a school-age kid and I remember an absolute glacier of ice on top of snow. The ice was strong enough to support my 8 year old weight and it must have had a foot of snow under it. We went sledding at a golf course and my brother got yeeted off his sled and scraped a bunch of skin off his face. That period through Jan '96 cemented my love of snow, which got me through the drought of '97-'99.  Even up there in the great north of central PA, winters can suck. We need a reminiscence thread, sorry for the digression. 

The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that.

Did we shut the blinds yet

Just now, Chris78 said:

I have a feeling as things start to become more favorable for the east in general, areas to North and to the west of our sub forum will start to cash in while we're still on the wrong side of the thermal boundary. 

Anyone who thinks it's unreadable in here now just wait till then. 

This is my greatest fear as well. My brother north of Ithaca NY has gotten very little this winter too. But this is his cash in season when we rain. Headed up there for prez day weekend so hopefully we see snow

1 hour ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Jesus,  what went on in the 50's

All those H bomb tests.

To improve the mood before the Euro runs I will post this picture that I took on 1/14/2019, when we got 6+" in a nice strip right across the DMV. This is on the northwest branch of the Anacostia near Hyattsville.

I'm all in on AGW and I don't doubt it's contributing to our warmer winter (and every other day of the year) stretch. Disclaimer, this post will probably be deleted/moved because I'm talking about CC, but I'd rather talk about it here than in that weird subforum thread. 

The point I want to make is we only have 130ish years of snowfall records. It would be really cool if we had a thousand years of records so we didn't have to rely on decade-to-decade comparisons within such a small dataset. For instance, what was annual snowfall in this region in the 1600s and 1700s? Anyone aware of any records kept during that period? 

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Meanwhile, the GEPS overwhelms us with cold/dry and nary any sign of a SER. So pick your poison. 

At this point i'll take a cold dry period over 50s and april showers.