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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    Yes, I posted this yesterday. When the globals were still showing significant snow accums for the big dec storm the nam had clued in on the r/s boundary being sharp and along 95 generally. It got it right.
  2. Paleocene
    Yeah, I have been inside or near the DC beltway since 2010 and we have not had any legit ice events. Plenty of glazed trees, glazed sidewalks, etc; but never significant ice accretion beyond 0.1" This one I'm expecting more of the same. Grass/colder spots get some snow, then an icy crust. The rain washes everything away on the roads/warmer surfaces.
  3. Paleocene
    I'd take weaker SW and all snow over the "pray for dynamic cooling" rain bomb potential from the GFS
  4. Paleocene
    We have the 850s below freezing for the duration but the sfc temps are wack. way warm.
  5. Paleocene
    NAM thru 75 shows that surface temps are below freezing NW of i-95 for basically the duration of the event. Ice ice baby
  6. Paleocene
    looks like a slopfest for the cities but maybe M/D and north hold?
  7. Paleocene
    this is the first time all winter that the higher probability contours are actually in our area
  8. Paleocene
    Yep, ditto. '93, '96, '03 were all childhood/teenage storms for me and where I was in Harrisburg PA got hammered by all of them. I was in college in central PA for 09'10 and we got obliterated there. Feast or famine in the mid-atlantic!
  9. Paleocene
    yeah being on this model yo-yo is really fun. I'm just hoping my poor kid can see some snow. He's at the perfect age (elementary school). I remember some shitty winters (97-98) when I was a kid in PA and it was the worst to not get to play in the snow in the winter.
  10. Paleocene
    boomin out over the great dismal swamp
  11. Paleocene
    NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.
  12. Paleocene
    Erm
  13. Paleocene
    Ha ha ... I get the NAM IS BAD MEME but I'm serious about it getting the gradient right in December. And met-taggers discussion that it did well versus the globals
  14. Paleocene
    Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well with the big december storm, especially in regard to the R/S gradient line? Gonna be on that NAM this weekend for this setup.
  15. Paleocene
    Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours. 12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.
  16. Paleocene
    verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter
  17. Paleocene
  18. Paleocene
    Pray for thump--->dry slot verbatim on this one.
  19. Paleocene
    thumpage? before rain...
  20. Paleocene
  21. Paleocene
    it's runnin! i'm ready to post some inaccurate analysis
  22. Paleocene
    Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same.
  23. Paleocene
    Thought it was a rain shower that moistened the streets here in the UHI last evening but a quick morning walk revealed some graupel in the colder areas, especially on grass and mulch. That brings this thrilling season up to flurries twice in december, 1.5 inches of snow before heavy rain in the December storm, and graupel today. Better luck next week
  24. Paleocene
    minor changes from 00z to 12z at d10 lol
  25. Paleocene
    Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. still much to learn!
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