Newman

Flurries. First flakes of season 11/2/20.

Welp currently a sophomore Met major at Millersville and this thread just made me wonder why I'm doing this. I've always had the passion to go into meteorology, I couldn't imagine doing anything else. But right now I'm minoring in Heliophysics/Space Weather. I hope to God I can find a job out there when that time comes. In the meantime, I'm just gonna work my butt off and try to market myself.

He said on Twitter the Philippines are closed to international travel

Monday will give us a quick taste of winter. Some areas could see snow showers/graupel with the strong NW wind over the lakes.

It's already out of here in Lanco and looks to be clearing up in Berks. Much earlier than I expected but this thing is hauling no doubt.

I'm currently a sophomore met student at Millersville and it's a lot of math and physics I gotta say (especially if you are interested in Space Weather/Heliophysics like me haha). However, I'm almost 20 years old. I'm taking the "normal" route per say as a typical high school student going to college. I do know though that Millersville does have some older students walking around. I wouldn't fear stepping out and following your dreams man. Ask yourself some questions though: 1.) Am I financially in a feasible and stable state to go to college (It's alot of money without scholarships or funding) 2.) Do I want to dedicate the next few years to this 3.) Will I enjoy all of the school work involved including rigorous math and physics courses (right now I'm in ODE, it's not fun haha). Meteorology has been my dream since I was a kid. I've always wanted to do it. If that's the same for you, go for it. Start out at a local community college, grab some general education credits at a cheaper price. Then transfer in with those credits and you've already got a head start and can fully focus on the courses that matter. Perhaps you might be seen a bit "differently" in the classroom for being older. But what does it matter?

Yes it will! This weekend is going to be fantastic

Chilly start to October? The trough in the east doesn't look too transient to be honest, it looks to stay around for a bit...

Should mention KRDG recorded a daily record low minimum of 38 yesterday

Yeah no record lows will be set tonight probably, but forecast lows of 39/40 while the records are 36/37 is impressive. Much below normal

Just got Sub-tropical storm Alpha form off Portugal lol. The gulf storm looks like it'll be Beta...

Can't wait to wake up in the low 40s Sunday

Low of 53 tonight with a dew point of 48? Yes please, bring on Fall

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from northern Virginia into northern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania by 21-22Z. A few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be needed prior to 21Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a progressive vorticity maximum was situated over southwestern PA and will continue east into the Middle Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. A band of low-topped convection has already developed in association with this feature extending into northern WV where instability is limited. Farther downstream, a lee trough resides just east of the central and southern Appalachian mountains. East of this feature temperatures have warmed to the upper 80s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite very weak mid-level lapse rates resulting from warm temperatures aloft. As the corridor of deeper ascent attending the shortwave trough continues east and begins to overtake the western edge of the moist warm sector, additional storms will likely develop from northern VA into southeast PA. Winds in the 850-500 mb layer will undergo a modest increase with approach of the impulse, resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity. This environment should be sufficient for some organized storm structures including a few supercells capable of locally strong to damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through early evening.

Updated Day 2 outlook, 15% wind, 15% hail (new to this outlook), 2% tornado.

Bassfield, MS just got hit by a likely EF4+ tornado with another one right on its heals. Unreal.

The 12z 3k NAM sure is showing some curvy hodographs. This one right around the DC area at 18z:

August PDO data: 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 August AMO data: 2017 0.222 0.224 0.164 0.280 0.311 0.305 0.299 0.307 0.347 0.430 0.349 0.361 2018 0.170 0.059 0.129 0.061 -0.004 -0.014 0.015 0.110 0.159 0.141 -0.124 -0.063 2019 -0.018 0.078 0.118 0.121 0.085 0.171 0.349 0.335

ENSO 3.4 continues to dive: ENSO 4 is as well with plenty of easterly wind bursts nearing 180W:

From 2009, talking about changing global circulations including Hadley Cell/Mid-Latitude Cell disruptions, etc.: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/publications/papers/Reichler_09_Widening.pdf

Courtesy to Isotherm, he and I had a small conversation on the disruption of the global jet stream patterns due to the emergence of changing Hadley Cell and Mid-Latitude Cell circulations. As SSTs continue to warm poleward due to the background state and changing climate, we see more convection which acts to disrupt the typical Hadley Cell circulations we know. Typically we see rising air at the ITCZ which spreads poleward and subsides around 30N which creates the Horse Latitudes. With convection being able to fire further north, the Hadley Cell circulations expand which create stronger gradients and subsequently strengthen the mid-Latitude cells. For the United States, that means the Pacific Jet stream becomes stronger. What I mean as "this isn't new" is the warmth of the Pacific and overall global oceans. We've seen warmth of our oceans for awhile now. However, are we finally entering the critical time where we truly do start to see global jet stream changes? Are winters going to be the same again? Or will we see more variability resulting in bigger and more extreme winter events? Have we already seen those changes? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that in theory the global jet stream patterns should be or have already changed in the changing climate.

The PAC jet is still raging due to Pacific Warmth spreading poleward and subsequently expanding Hadley Cells and strengthening the mid-Latitude cell (Pacific Jet). This isn't new, though. The Pacific overall has been warm for the past couple years to a decade. The question is how will the strong Pacific jet trend and/or affect the upcoming winter. Last year the Pacific was so hostile. Could we see a repeat?