Newman

Thank you all! As a met student, I try my best to learn on my own and equally try to convey the information to the public in a detailed and scientific, yet clear and understanding way. I'm just here to help everyone stay informed, plus I love sharing info as well. Just as another note, there have been some tornado warnings down in the south this morning with "radar confirmed" tornado messages. Plus some confirmed tornados and damage across Georgia yesterday with Fred. We'll see if that all can or will make it's way up here tomorrow. Now to play devils advocate, its also very possible the primary low tracks too far east and many end up with 1. Just some moderate rains or 2. A brief period of rain and nothing after. In a time of the year when the weather seems to slow down and eyes turn towards the tropics, it's nice having something to watch.

As of now, just a slight conditional 2% risk from the SPC, which I would agree with. It won't be a widespread event and is highly dependent on track among other factors too. But absolutely worth keeping an eye on, any time you have a tropical system (even a remnant one) track to your west, you have a shot of tornados.

As I said above, the HRRR is not too dissimilar from the NAM. The difference is timing, where the HRRR brings storms in around ~5pm compared to ~10pm on the NAM. Still very curvy hodographs with lots and lots of veering up the column in the low levels, plenty of effective bulk shear (over 50kts!). LCLs are low, which help to favor tornado formation as well, and MLCAPE is solidly in the 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg range (although it wouldn't hurt if it was a bit higher).

Lets not sleep on tomorrow (literally). With the remnants of Fred moving in, lots of shear will be in place. And unfortunately, in the evening and towards the overnight hours when some might be sleeping. The 3k NAM has some impressive hodographs showing up in the area, the one below for Harrisburg with a PDS TOR sounding. The HRRR is in the same boat as well with discrete cells ahead of the primary low pressure system. Surface warming during the daytime may allow for sufficient CAPE for a sneaky tornado or two, although it'll ultimately depend on the hourly track of Fred and where it decides to go. Not often, if ever, you see a nocturnal tornado threat in this part of the country. We shall see...

Slight conditional tornado risk tomorrow evening and night with Fred coming through

@MacChump Thank you for the Mt. Jo recommendation! Went at 7am yesterday and was one of the best views I've ever seen! On a weather related note, current temp is 86F. Very excited for tomorrow's lower temps and lower dew points too. Tired of the heat and can't wait until Autumn. Also, the tropics seem to be heating up. Maybe we'll get a storm to move up this way later towards fall?

Just looked up the Mt. Jo trail, definitely what I'm gonna do! I just got surgery on Monday, so I have to be very careful with how strenuous these hikes are. I'm up here to begin with because my brother is getting married up here and I was hoping to do some hiking. The Cobble Lookout was a very simple 2 mile out and back with virtually no elevation gain. If the Mt. Jo loop ends up being too much, I'll turn around. And obviously hiking up Whiteface isn't gonna happen, but 100% will drive up. Thanks for the recommendations!

I'm in Lake Placid NY until Saturday. First time up here, and wow it's beautiful! Got up at 4:45am to go watch the sunrise at Cobble Overlook (around 2350' elevation). Hoping to either drive or hike to the peak of Whiteface Mountain tomorrow (around 4850' elevation). Wish I could live up here year round, plus they average 100+ inches of snow. Side note, some severe storms forecasted for up here today.

That bow echo was very underwhelming. Just some rain.

Some record low, or nearing record low, temps tonight for July 31st.

Record low temps possible tonight. Philadelphia forecast is to get down to 57F which would tie the record low for July 31st. Reading and Allentown forecast to get down to 52-54 which would be close as well.

Video of an apparent tornado in Lebanon earlier today https://www.facebook.com/100009682356689/videos/2668568046777171/

What an insane day it turned out to be. My post about this being more so a "damaging wind" threat did not age well. This ended up being a localized tornado outbreak for SE PA and Southern Jersey. I actually went to chase the two tornado warned storms in northern MD and ended up missing them, started to drive back and was getting phone calls from my friend in Levittown who was chasing that New Hope storm. He then backtracked and tried to intercept the Bensalem storm but missed that one. Overall, just an incredible day. Low level shear for the win, sun/CAPE for the loss. I hope everyone here on the board and across the area is okay.

Video of a Lebanon County tornado earlier https://www.facebook.com/100009682356689/videos/2668568046777171/

Yeah the hook on that storm is something you don't see often around here.

Those storms in Bedford county, entering Fulton, look to have that discrete/curvy look to them. No warnings on them though

* Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Somerset County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 212 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Seven Springs, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported funnel cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

The latest 1800z Mesoanalysis basically shows almost any CIN eroded. SBCAPE up to 2000 J/kg for much of Lancaster/York/Adams and MLCAPE up to 1000 approaching ~1500 J/kg. Bulk shear has very nicely increased as expected. Low level lapse rates have been increasing as well, LCLs are low (support tornadoes). So while CAPE is certainly not incredible by any means, it should get the job down with the ample shear. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, maybe an iso tornado later

There's a tornado warning out in far western PA for a lone supercell *Reported funnel cloud with it too

Another tornado warning out in western PA for Westmoreland and Fayette counties

I don't expect the tornado threat to end up materializing, but I could definitely see a bow echo roll through the Philly area similar to last May's event, maybe not to the extreme that was. But even with all of us socked in clouds, the CAPE values should be sufficient enough to support some severe storms and the deep layer shear will help to maintain any line segments. We shall see, I think the NWS and SPC did a great job with this expressing the possible dangers of the event, while also recognizing the chance of failure as well. We might be leaning more so towards "failure" here, but that's what comes with living in this part of the country.

Latest 1630z outlook still has the enhanced risk, shifted the tornado threat furthest east to the coast.

Tornado warning for far NW PA in Erie and Crawford counties

I can't pull up any current skew-t data (which sucks, MDT should send up a weather balloon lol). But the latest 12z 3k NAM has plenty of deep layer shear and a TOR sounding for the MDT region. In layman's terms... atmosphere go spinny, just need some sun...