Scarlet Pimpernel

Casey Kasem actually said the F word???

Thanks for this, Bob. You made a similar post a couple of years (?) ago about the attitudes that can develop and implored people to be a bit less tense about it, and to stop the back-biting ugly commentary. Seemed to work for awhile but then...well, right back to the same ol' same ol'. Would it be upsetting to me to end up with a washout for this event after a few hours of snow and/or ice? Sure. But what's the point of pissing on everything in here? Personally, I don't care about being in the jackpot zone (would be great any time of course!). I mean really...who cares if the Blue Ridge gets 24" snow and here in the metro I get 10-12"? Or for that matter, when people piss and moan about how much Boston gets. Why do we care? They live in a much more favorable climo!! Same thing...if we get a foot and they get a blizzard with twice as much there, why is that an issue? Not the same as getting shut out while everyone else gets something good.

Dafuq was going on last night around the 00Z GFS run?? The commentary was off the rails, though not sure any worse than other times things got bad. A couple of people in there, names I don't think I've seen, were just trolling away (or trying to do really clever snark, hard to say). It was...weird.

In which case, we would most certainly have a show-stopper! (apologies for showing you up there!!!) (I'll show myself out now!!!)

Show off!!!

See, what we have here are shown no-shows and unshown showns.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve." --Bilbo Baggins

Yeah...there's a couple in there (p03 and p25) that are more borderline, but not even close to what the 18Z deterministic ops shows. And still a decent number of what would be shutouts or near-shutouts...as well as what look like good hits.

He's got Boardwalk and Park Place, as I recall!

There's always the CRAS, and Jan. 30, 2010!

Hahaha, oh so true!!! But unfortunately that couldn't happen. Even if they tied, someone would get the championship. Well, unless there was some kind of cheating or substance abuse or whatever discovered on with both teams such that they would both be disqualified. Thus making Michigan the National Champion!!

Cutters?

The RuPaul storm! With Ron Paul and his "It's Happening!!"

It sure did! I recall going out in the middle of the night, there were already a few inches on the ground and it was puking snow. Got about a foot through early morning before snizzle most of the rest of the day, then some of the wrap-around snow (though the best of those deform. bands didn't hit my area).

Interesting that Commutageddon got in there. Wouldn't necessarily have thought of that, but I imagine it's due to the intense closed 500mb low (which Commutageddon had).

Well my power just cut out for a brief second for no other apparent reason, so...

I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain. I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

Yeah it just completely blasts the PBL away like nothing, that's for sure. Personally, in that setup, I'd be fine with a sleet topper above a heavy layer of snow that has already fallen, that then turns into a glacier (as @Bob Chill might say).

You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings. I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about. Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that. ETA: Not that I should be parsing soundings this far out, but just for argument's sake is all!

I must admit, I'm glad that Georgia won (and convincingly so) last night. I didn't follow the game much, just occasionally checked ESPN online when I wasn't checking the latest model runs...LOL!! @GATECH...I know, I know! No self-respecting Tech grad should root for that "other" school northeast of Atlanta! Don't take away my Ramblin' Wreck card! But...I've always had the philosophy of "ABB": Anybody But 'Bama!! So this one time I allowed myself to deviate!

Nahhh, go for the cheapie properties! Baltic Ave. and Mediterranean Ave.! Or Connecticut/Vermont/Oriental Ave.! You can put up hotels on those much faster and start raking it in!

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)? I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

What's funny is that I still distinctly remember the two very cold Februaries we had...2007 and 2015. Both were like -7 to -8 degree departures, and I think 2015 was overall colder. Both had a "key event" around V-Day. In 2007, we just missed a major MECS/HECS level event but still ended up with a big sleet and ice storm that turned into a glacier for the next couple of weeks. In 2015, we got the burst of snow along that Arctic front (Bob, I believe you said you were out in the garage grilling while that snow was falling?!). As I've said a few times before, if we had gotten hit with the V-Day storm in 2007, we would have considered that one of the better winters in memory. To me, it was still a fine season overall and I think that February with the cold is a big reason for it. But it gets overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow. In 2015, it's as if we had a "re-do", we got the cold and snow that February (into early March).

Yup, I definitely remember that particular storm. For awhile and for several model runs it looked good for us, and there was a fair bit of excitement. Sometime not long before the event (a few days), the 18Z deterministic GFS was still looking fine and you put up a sort of warning post saying, "Guys, don't look at the 18Z GEFS ensembles!" Sure enough, the ensembles didn't look good for here and from there after it was clear the event was going more north.