Scarlet Pimpernel

Was going to say...looks very much like the Hurricane Isabel track in 2003!!

Thank you...very good explanation. I don't know much about the specific 1994 storms you mentioned (wasn't in the area at the time), but I see what you're talking about.

Not saying that it will happen or be the ultimate solution. But it's not like the GFS is doing something "non physical" here. If there's a shortwave on its heels phasing in at that time, it pulls the system NW as we see. @psuhoffman and others have hammered that point several times.

Certainly not expecting an "all clean" snow event at this point. But it sure would be nice to avoid spiking temperatures and a deluge after a good thump as much as possible! I'd rather have a transition to sleet/ice, or a dry slot where we don't have temps shoot up well into the 40s.

Confluence to the northeast any different/better? (ETA: Also that shortwave to its west?)

Yeah that was quite the sleet-fest. I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC at the time, we got like 3-4" sleet, which froze into a block of ice after that storm.

Made me think of this (instead of "Margins! Margins!" it would be "Legends, Legends!!")

Gotta hand it to you, that was a master stroke!

That's a RR special right there, just waiting for comment!

But much closer to Winchester than Cleveland!!!

Congrats on your oldest Miss J getting accepted at Seattle Univ!! That's a big step. My daughter just started a U. MD this fall. As @George BM alluded to, Sunday afternoon and evening might get iffy for travel given current indications (all subject to change over time of course).

We should have moderators adopt the chef Gordon Ramsay "Hell's Kitchen" not-putting-up-with-BS attitude!!

Same here, I'd gladly take that. I like your point about the advertised "washout" rain that typically ends up turning into a quasi-dry slot with light sleet then drizzle. Feb. 2014 has been brought up a few times and that's what happened in that event. Maybe we'll get a little more light snow after a dry slot, too, if we're lucky.

Wow, that looks really unhealthy! You should go see a cardiologist and... ...oh wait, nevermind!!!

Poor Cleveland, my home town, always the butt of jokes!! Go Guardians!!

I'm reminded of Tom Lehrer's "New Math" song!!

Same. I have found it really sad that so many good posters and other meteorologists have just thrown up their hands and left due to some of the God-awful commentary in here. Though I can't really blame them. Again, I get the disappointment and I don't deny being frustrated with, say, this potential event this weekend. But I don't litter the board with sniping comments or complaints or "it's over!!!"

Casey Kasem actually said the F word???

Thanks for this, Bob. You made a similar post a couple of years (?) ago about the attitudes that can develop and implored people to be a bit less tense about it, and to stop the back-biting ugly commentary. Seemed to work for awhile but then...well, right back to the same ol' same ol'. Would it be upsetting to me to end up with a washout for this event after a few hours of snow and/or ice? Sure. But what's the point of pissing on everything in here? Personally, I don't care about being in the jackpot zone (would be great any time of course!). I mean really...who cares if the Blue Ridge gets 24" snow and here in the metro I get 10-12"? Or for that matter, when people piss and moan about how much Boston gets. Why do we care? They live in a much more favorable climo!! Same thing...if we get a foot and they get a blizzard with twice as much there, why is that an issue? Not the same as getting shut out while everyone else gets something good.

Dafuq was going on last night around the 00Z GFS run?? The commentary was off the rails, though not sure any worse than other times things got bad. A couple of people in there, names I don't think I've seen, were just trolling away (or trying to do really clever snark, hard to say). It was...weird.

In which case, we would most certainly have a show-stopper! (apologies for showing you up there!!!) (I'll show myself out now!!!)

Show off!!!

See, what we have here are shown no-shows and unshown showns.

"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve." --Bilbo Baggins