Scarlet Pimpernel

Hopefully not a GFS modeling gig!!! But seriously, have a fun time up there!!

I posted a response in the main medium range thread, but even though this is an ops out there in time...this kind of threat has shown up in ops runs (not just the GFS) and even ensembles(?) in that time period, several times lately. So I don't think it's just fantasy land bullshit. Not saying for sure we'll get something, but it catches one's attention.

I know we can all laugh at an ops model at range...but a pretty good event has shown up in the ops (not just the GFS) several times now in that time frame. Not guaranteed obviously, but I don't think it's just fantasy either.

I hear King John remembered that storm well!!

Well, for the Cleveland Browns it's not superstition over the past couple of decades. They just suck and don't play well no matter what the situation, the opponent, or time of year!!!

I think the "weekend rule" stuff is over-stated, and/or stated with some jest. If one considers Friday as essentially nearly the weekend and considers that many events spill over into another day (e.g., starts later Friday, goes into or through Saturday), you're talking nearly half the week right there. So yeah, decent chance a storm will occur then. Add in Monday holidays in the winter (MLK Day, Pres Day) and that's even more "weekend" relatively speaking. Plus, perception bias in part, one tends to perhaps recall events that occur on a weekend more.

Agree. I can recall several advisory to warning-level snows between late February and mid-March, it's really not all that rare of a thing relatively speaking. I know there are those who tend to thumb their nose at later season snow events but we've had a decent number. And in not the greatest setups, too.

You do realize that the sleet bomb in the teens we had a couple of weeks ago was due to the mid-levels only. Nothing to do with the surface. And that was with a low cutting into the Ohio valley or there about. Point is, yeah, we were "saved" by very cold surface air in place while the surface and 850 low went way to our west but that was particular to that event. That doesn't mean such a thing would necessarily happen in another scenario where it's cold enough for snow but we get a better low track, say if that happens later this month or in March. You still don't need the coldest of the cold to get a good snow event here, even in the DC-Balt corridor.

Well, I wouldn't take what some deterministic model says at face value going farther out in time. I mean heck...if anyone saw the 12Z GFS earlier, it had cold coming back in the last part of its run and even had a decent snow event around the 24th. Not that it matters really that far out. So whatever.

LOL! Really? OK, yeah I definitely can agree we're done with Arctic air the rest of this winter. I mean, that's just climo and it's rare to get that level of cold as we get farther into this month and into March. So that's kind of a meaningless statement. But we don't need brutal cold to still get a solid wintry event or two between now and March.

Well, getting into the time of year when we typically don't "lock in" on any cold/warm setup so I guess that's not a surprise. I still think we don't get shut out the remainder of the season, and perhaps not even the rest of this month. A decent moderate event, maybe on the order of a SECS-MECS, would still have to be on the table I'd like to believe, between now and early-mid March. And perhaps a second event of some sort too if lucky.

2-m temps look horrid at 120, actually.

I haven't really paid much attention to the somewhat longer range in awhile. But is the previously thought more favorable NA later this month and early March now looking less likely? I recall there was some discussion awhile back about a PV split, and being on our side of the hemisphere, with a good shot at a return to more blocking around that time period. Not sure of the details though. It doesn't seem like the Pac side is going to do much to become better.

Appropriate for a "gray hat" then, I suppose?! Yeah, there's unfortunately a lot of localized IMBY complaining stuff in here, but I suspect that's in any other regional forum too. We've got our share of shit posters for sure, but also many, many excellent and knowledgeable ones. And realistically (for better or worse), a large majority of people in this sub-forum are in the DMV-Baltimore corridor (myself included). Just how it is. I guess I try not to let the weenie trollish and whiney comments drive me away from the otherwise good analysis and discussion from the others. Even if I personally am ticked off or disappointed at a result or how things are looking, I do my best to not let that spill over into this place with a lot of crap posting and whining.

True! It's still "civilized" at that time of year if you're warmer than normal! I still remember Dec. 2015, we had like a +9 departure for the month, ridiculous warmth (though it didn't feel overly uncomfortable at that time of year)...and I was thinking thank God we didn't get a +9 in July!!!