Scarlet Pimpernel

Right...there's always a difference between "snowfall" and "snow depth". Obviously when it's cold, there shouldn't be huge differences, though you can have settling and compacting even in relatively short periods of time. But it's easy to accumulate a decent amount on, say, grassy surfaces (or a legitimate snowboard), only to have it compact down/melt/whatever and be less some hours later. All depends on rates with marginal temperatures. ETA: And I'm honestly not sure how those "positive snow depth" maps are generated or what algorithm is used.

This really is a tough situation especially taking temperatures into account, etc. I'm usually loath to be "critical" but I do find this to be a bit of an odd snowfall distribution. Some of the areas that are currently under a warning actually have less than warning criteria on that expected snowfall map. Also, just checking WPC's 50th percentile amounts, it has been showing significantly more (on the order of ~6-10" near DC, with higher as you go northeast and to the east of the Bay). I would absolutely not want to be on the hot seat making decisions on this, for sure!

Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest. But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go.

Certainly for temperatures and thermal profiles at least.

Speaking of that 2nd storm in Feb. 2010 (Feb. 9-10)...I've shared this before, but out of all the photos I took during that incredible winter, this is my favorite. Cars still buried from the storm a few days earlier, almost seemingly groaning under the weight of yet MORE snow. And those snowflakes were like parachutes, plus temperatures were in the 20s with screaming winds.

First tropical system of the season???

Does it crash temps (relatively speaking) after 18Z sometime?

Maybe not "smoke" per se, but pasted with mashed potatoes sticking to every single surface if that verifies!!

I was just about to say, if this works out, a Sunday evening Jebwalk will be in order (with camera in hand)!!

Yup, exactly. We're not getting the crazy totals here in the DMV. I don't get the "disappointment" from some at models consistently showing around 6" or even a bit more around here, just because PHL-BOS might get 2 feet. Who cares, as long as we can do well, at least that's my feeling.

FWIW, I checked out WPC's page and here's what is indicated for the 50th percentile through 12Z Monday (24-h snow). Issued earlier this morning. So yeah, that other plot for some reason must be a higher percentile. Still, this looks pretty darned fine to me!

I can see DCA recording 3.3" snow while areas immediately outside the airport have 10"!!! Just how it is there!

I mean yes, of course I'd love to get into the best stuff here! Not saying otherwise. Just that I think expecting some of the crazy amounts that generally have not been shown over the cities (talking DC-Balt corridor) in the guidance...that area is farther east and northeast...is just setting oneself up for disappointment. If we somehow manage 6-10" or 8-12" here along with what could be some pretty strong winds, that's a win as far as I'm concerned. Again, I certainly would LOVE to get an historic level amount. But unless things change today such that all or nearly all guidance shows that, I'm not going to expect it; it would be icing in the cake really. However, if all or nearly all guidance continues to show a really good warning level event, that would be great.

We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue. I mean really...expectations, people! Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)?