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Always in Zugzwang

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Everything posted by Always in Zugzwang

  1. Hey @WinterWxLuvr, some threat possibilities that don't start with a "3" on the forecast hour, finally!
  2. MR Ducks! MR Not! OSAR! CM Wings? LIB, MR Ducks!
  3. Of course. I was being sarcastic with my comment. In the ~22 years that I've been in this area, there hasn't been a below zero temperature in the immediate metro area in the places I've lived. Maybe close...single digits...but not below zero. And like I said, looking back at Feb. 2007 and Feb. 2015...two of the coldest months in that time...we didn't get there (at least around DCA where I was). But yes, if that "signal" of extreme temperatures is real, we could well see some bitter cold all the same and threaten record lows as you say. And if there is any decent snow pack, outlying areas surely could dip into the negatives. I mean, look at Christmas weekend, how cold it got, and not even a coating of snow cover anywhere near here.
  4. Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC. Absolutely! LOL!! It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015. Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario. But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level.
  5. It's hard to say if the GFS is "rushing" things, but yeah that period in early-mid February may well have legs. I do remember the models have been advertising a similar kind of overrunning attacking the pressing cold air starting sometime about the very end of this month into the first couple of days of February. Maybe it was last week's runs? There was a similar such event as what the 18Z GFS is now showing, just earlier (end of Jan.). And that kind of scenario has shown up on various days in this same general time frame. It may have gotten pushed back from last day or two of January but that signal has appeared.
  6. Well, this is the year of the Rabbit! Also, speaking of Holy Grails...
  7. True. It was a big shift for an ensemble in one cycle. I guess it's all perspective...either the ridge is farther east or the downstream trough isn't digging out into the southwest/Pacific forcing the ridge too far west.
  8. Snow just beginning here now, and the radar looks awesome! I expect to be out Jebwalking when it's rippin' out later this evening through tomorrow with blizzard conditions!... ... ... Oh wait. Shit. This is the Jan. 22, 2023 thread, not the Jan. 22-23, 2016 one! Damn, sorry about that folks!
  9. That's a pretty big switch over one run for an ensemble mean (though it's happened before). Clearly the 12Z EPS has backed away from dumping the trough almost completely into the southwest US and the Pacific. (ETA: How did the Euro ops run look, offhand? Just curious. Didn't see anything of that posted in here.)
  10. Just keep Jar-Jar Binks out of it, or any of the prequels/sequels to the original Star Wars trilogy and we should be fine!! Seriously, though. Others have elaborated some on this but I kind of have to like the overall look of things near the end of this month and into the first part of February. Is it another rug pull? Who knows. But there's been some really good cold air advertised nearby and the PV perhaps dipping south more in that time frame. We'll see, I guess.
  11. Or being a Cleveland sports fan! LOL!!! I still seethe to an extent over "The Drive", "The Fumble", "The Shot", and two World Series losses in extra innings of Game 7! But hey, I can always savor LeBron and the 2016 NBA championship against the Golden State juggernaut! That was the sports equivalent (for me) of winter 2009-10, it can take the sting out of all the other crap!! (ETA: I still like going back and watching the last 5 or so minutes of Game 7 of that 2016 NBA finals on YouTube...even though I know everything that happened, it still puts me on the edge of my seat watching it again!!)
  12. I'll add to this, and being serious here. It's easy to get a bit down during this "dead time" right after the Holidays and all that. I know I get that way, after all the festivities between essentially Thanksgiving and New Year's. That "down time" can tend to make other things seem worse, or it's easier to get down in general, even about small stuff. Hell, I do that myself around this time of year for various things. Probably a lot of people do. But as @H2O, @mappy, and some others have said...find things that you like, that you enjoy. Take your mind out of all the other BS going on. For me, it's photography. Even in the dead of winter it's possible to find something which catches my eye that's interesting to photograph. Or reading...or hanging out with friends. Those kinds of things can definitely get you out of feeling in a rut, for what it's worth.
  13. Like cleaning the Augean Stables in here sometimes...
  14. It would be like the Hunger Games...winner gets all the snow!
  15. Same here. I tend to lurk more unless there's something really interesting in terms of wintry weather or at least some possibility on the horizon. In general I try to keep a lighter or more humorous attitude in the face of endless fails, but I try not to go overboard on that (maybe sometimes too much banter-ish stuff in the main threads, I admit!). But I do also try to post relevant information in those threads as well. Don't like getting into the pie fights that have gone on.
  16. Taking this run verbatim (I know, I know!!!), you can see that a front goes through prior to that wave moving in, with temperatures dropping through that event. So again, taking this as-is, yeah, there would be a good bit of fresh cold air around.
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