Scarlet Pimpernel

I know there are those in this forum who think early March snow (i.e., first half of the month) is a waste, but we've had some really good cold shots and snows in the first part of that month. We've also had some epically cold periods in February (2007 and 2015 come to mind). Who cares if it's not something that would necessarily stay on the ground for a week or two. Really! If these current indications on the extended and weeklies are correct, we could well easily be tracking things not only the 2nd half or so of February, but also into March. I say bring it on!

God's sake, even with every blasted model showing a highly favorable and amazing pattern toward the middle of February into the first part March or so, you still have awful downer posts in the medium range thread! I swear, some people really should be five-posted.

Haha, I guess that's true, it sure does feel like that many times for snow! And kudos for recognizing the meaning of the chess term ("obligation to move" but it puts you in a worse position!)...gotta love those German words for things!

I was just going to mention this is a pretty sick (or slick??) looking pattern at the end of the GFS. Yeah, 384 hour ops and all but I've seen this showing up more out there in ops la-la land, which is nice to see! And I like at the surface how there are some nice highs lined up in Canada on the east side of that PNA ridge.

Well hello!!! Former Panic Room quasi-employees can't hide from the Reaper no matter one's name!

Right...they have a "severity" scale of 1-5 for the top events, based upon areal coverage, population density, and of course amount of snow. "Lesser" events below the KU scale are the more moderate events which they also cover in those volumes. I'm more or less in line with what others consider for the categories, and all of them should be warning-level or higher: SECS...4-8" solid event. MECS...12"+ HECS...18-24"+, typically covering a wide area of the East Coast. This would also be considered a "KU" storm, one that would be discussed and referred to historically. But even this has nuances for specific "IMBY" amounts...I got ~12" for the Feb. 9-10, 2010 event (though very hard to measure!), but I consider it a HECS based because it had true blizzard conditions, a whiteout for several hours, and it was very cold. Plus other locations nearby got 18" or much more. It also, of course, covered a wide area. BECS...as I mentioned before, enough snow that Moses would have to part the snow drifts on the DC Beltway!!! Maybe enough snow that @Ji would complain that it's TOO MUCH! Or enough that even @Jebman would decline to attempt shoveling it.

Is that used for their Atmospheric Dynamics II class, for the Met major???

Ha! Well, I guess my "art" and otherwise odd sense of humor and posting style come through no matter the name! Cat's out of the bag!

Day-um! Can't ask for a more classic setup, and I'm glad to see blocking coming into play even before this extended ensemble range. If we can't get that to work, then we're looking at going full Offenbach with "The Tales of (PSU)Hoffman"!!!

LOL! Well, I actually used to have the handle of "Always in Zugzwang". For what it's worth!

But the Laughing Cow!!! Need that to truly have an epic SBFI (gotta have some food!), and you'll be Jebdrinking like it's 2009-10! (But you might be doing that already!) (ETA: 3 fridges? That might induce a triple-phased-fridger!)

Interesting, because I seem to recall similar discussions in 2016 about the lack of big storms around the 3rd week of January. Maybe due to climo "January thaw" or just chance. And then we got the blizzard on Jan. 22-23! Again like you said, no apparent reason it couldn't happen.

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain. But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast. I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow. Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse. But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and icy type events. That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here. But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks.

It's the Detroit Lions of emotional swings in here!!

Of course, it will be the classic rematch. ETA : Guess I'll be rooting for the Niners in the SB now!

Maybe so. But you gotta take the damned points when you have the easy chance to do so. Better 6 more near certain points than zero and giving your opponent the ball back with good field position.

Sad thing is the Lions probably eek out a win if they went for the FG those two times. Or at worst, go into OT.

They couldn't kick a field goal let alone the can!

Wow, just unbelievable! How can the Lions refuse to go for a fairly easy field goal TWICE!? Such poor play calling decisions.

Actually looking only at the orientation of the height contours and ignoring the blue/orange overlayed anomalies, that's not a half bad looking flow? Low heights establishing near the Aleutians, building up a PNA ridge with an undercutting trough in the southwest, and what looks like confluent flow in the northeast?

I believe @WxUSAFwas referring more specifically to the potential around Feb. 4-6, and not to the pattern for the remainder of the winter.

Yeah, Ralph seems very concerned about the Ravens' chances today... ... Oh wait, you're referring to his comment about the models!

Did @Ralph Wiggum just declare WAR?? I'm joking here of course! But in all seriousness I always thought when people talk about the "western Atlantic ridge" (WAR) or "pig SE ridge", that it refers to a fairly long-lasting phenomenon that screws things for many days or more. Not a transient feature in a natural progression.