Scarlet Pimpernel

This is all we can hope for. As was mentioned earlier, there are a lot of vorts flying around in there which complicates the setup. It's pretty obvious what we ideally want is for something to phase and create a deep/intense enough low that can tuck toward the coast more and also draw in some colder air. The 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC showed how that can occur. We don't want some broad, dull trough that scoots a weak wave out to sea.

I'll say for myself that yes, I have gone back and forth debating with myself on this kind of thing. In my case, it's photography gear (photography is a major hobby of mine!). I tend to look into upgrades for newer camera body versions every now and then, and scrutinize details, seeing if it's really worth it and if I'd need it for my purposes, etc. In general, it's not excessive in terms of cost...an investment for sure, but nothing like having to get a loan out, LOL!! Plus, I would factor in how much I could sell my current equipment for to partially defray some of the cost. In general, it is clearly worth it and overall not too bad in terms of cost. Especially since when I get something like that, it gets a LOT of good use. It's a bit difficult, being a bit of a technophile, when I see all these neat new features, and I have to really think hard how much I truly need it for what I do. But when I've taken the plunge, it's definitely worth it and I've saved up some for that. So I'd say that if the cost is not excessive and not overly "painful" in your case, and it's something you most definitely would get a lot of use from and make your work easier...go for it! And if you can somehow sell your current setup, even for just a relatively small amount, that can help too. Especially if your family is saying sure, go on ahead and do that for yourself if the equipment will enhance your artwork. For instance, a couple of years ago I upgraded my camera body to a Canon R5. It's not cheap, but not their highest end either. My camera at the time was fine. But the R5 had a fair bit more that I seriously would use, so I went for it and haven't regretted that. The damned thing is a workhorse and takes amazing shots, and I can probably keep it for a couple of years more barring something like it having serious issues or damaging it somehow. And I sold/traded in my previous camera which actually cut the net cost nearly in half which helped.

I know there's a lot of focus obviously on this upcoming weekend, but did anyone else notice that guidance has been showing a decent window around the March 3-5 period now for a few days? We'll see if that's real, but I'm getting a bit intrigued now that something has been showing up around then.

Look up Gilbert and Sullivan comic operettas, I think you'd like them. You can probably easily find recordings of any number of the operas they did...about a dozen from the 1870s to the 1890s. "Mikado" is generally recognized as their most popular and successful, both at the time it first came out and in the modern day. I've always liked G&S, grew up with recordings of them (my parents were big fans!) and was fortunate enough to see several performed live. What's interesting is that Sullivan (who did the music) was already widely recognized as a successful composer outside of the stuff he did with Gilbert, while Gilbert himself was a bit of a curmudgeon though had a biting wit, publishing various things in magazines and such at the time. The two of them collaborating together (great music, humorous and biting lyrics) were amazing; you cannot separate the music from the lyrics. Though they did not get along personally much of the time. And from what I understand, Queen Victoria at times was not overly fond of Gilbert's poking fun at various aspects of the government, etc. ("WE are not amused!!"). Sullivan was knighted while still alive, Gilbert was knighted posthumously. While I absolutely love "Mikado" and find it to be their most clever work, my favorite is actually "Yeoman of the Guard" which is their most serious operetta and actually a bit tragic in the end (though still with an edge of humor). Funny thing too about "Mikado." Some of the lyrics (such as the "Little List" song) can be modified to throw in local or current event references! They just facilitate themselves to that. I recall seeing it performed live one year in Ohio (not sure if it exists anymore, the Ohio Light Opera Company), they did several G&S performances each year. At the time, Reagan was President, and the person playing Ko-Ko, while singing "Little List" near the end threw in an aside of "...and Nancy, you know who!" That got quite the laugh from the audience!

I thought they pronounce it "Ball-mer" up that way!!!

Well, you know in Gilbert & Sullivan's "Mikado", the "piano organist" is on Ko-Ko's list for potential victims to be beheaded!! (BTW, "guy" in these lyrics as I understand it, refers to someone dressing like Guy Fawkes, for Guy Fawks Day. Silly Brits!!!) There's the banjo serenader, and the others of his race And the piano-organist — I've got him on the list! And the people who eat peppermint and puff it in your face They never would be missed — they never would be missed! Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone All centuries but this, and every country but his own; And the lady from the provinces, who dresses like a guy And who "doesn't think she dances, but would rather like to try"; And that singular anomaly, the lady novelist — I don't think she'd be missed — I'm sure she'd not be missed!

FYP!!!

You mean, it IS (or was) showing nothing at 12Z?

Can't exactly recall what 12Z looked like, but the overall "distribution" looks a bit more "even" so to speak.

The comment you replied to is kind of ridiculous on its face, with the "Climo absolutely says no to this one." Seriously? Yeah, "climatologically" our odds decrease as we now head later into the season and March. But "absolutely no" is, to put it not so politely, a silly thing to say. I guess all those later season and March snows we've gotten over the years never occurred. In reality, we're generally realistically "in the game" for at least something up to perhaps about mid-March. Could we end up with little or nothing or even rain from this potential event? And nothing the rest of the season? Yeah, sure...of course! But I wouldn't say that's because "climo told us it's a no-go and it just followed that!" Each discrete event is its own entity with the given conditions as they exist; in other words, "climatology" is different from "weather."

Personally, if we can end up with a fun, decent event that can drop a few inches or so of snow, that would be a win as far as I'm concerned. Seems too many people are waaaaay too invested in some kind of upper end MECS to HECS event because some runs of the regular dynamic and the AI models showed that possibility lately...and then tear their hair out if they show anything less the next cycle, with assumptions about "trending" negatively and that's now guaranteed. I think most or all of us here are wary enough to not expect the high end solutions at this point this far out, as much as that would be nice. We don't need constant reminders about such things as "seasonal trend", "OMG, it's a Nina so we're screwed", "we never do well in Miller-B systems!", etc. Just freaking follow and track the event until such time that it's either nothing much, or we end up having something real here that's at least pretty decent. If you don't want to do that or can't deal with it, then at least keep the doom posting to yourself please.

Yup. The f'ing doom posting is ridiculous. "Oh no, it's not a HECS, that means it's guaranteed to be nothing!!! And it's trending toward the not-so-great 12Z Euro run!! OMG!!!" Jesus. H. Christ!

Yeah...I swear the doom-posting with every SLIGHT change in the models every 6 hours if it doesn't show wall-to-wall HECS level snows in general is a pain in the ass and a huge one at that. Page after page of whining and saying we're toast, or "I told you that you all are just chasing a rainstorm but you wouldn't listen to my secret expertise!" You know what? We may be toast, but at this point who knows. But you know what else? Who cares. We track something interesting because we all are looking for snow, and we'll track it to the end or until such point that it looks like a loss. I'm not going to assume that "OMG it's trending badly, it's over!!!" because a couple of models seem to "back off" from 18" snow during some run. But it's no fun to sift through all the BS either. It would be nice to see the lower end of the goal posts converge on a few inches or so of snow for this upcoming potential, that would be a fun event...with an upper end of a serious MECS (or better!) possible. The whining and over-concern worry is bad enough with any event, but the troll-like posts are way over the top, up to and including actually disparaging professional mets and others in here who are very knowledgeable. That just crosses a big red line. So yeah, maybe not outright "banning" those that engage in that, but the old 5-posting would help. Maybe that would make those who are deliberately shit-stirring and trolling think twice...but if not, they at least wouldn't be posting more than 5 times within some time frame.

Uhhh, weekend/week of the 23rd IS the last week of February! (ETA: See, we even get screwed for winter by the calendar, the shortest season in terms of number of days and includes the shortest month of the year!! )

Thanks. Hard to tell how "heavy" the precip is in that image above, with those green shadings (and what they mean). On a related note, I believe the AI models typically are not the greatest for amounts, but are better for overall coverage. Something like that.

That due to not much precip, or due to temperatures that are too warm and bleah?

"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than it is for us to get a snowstorm!" But seriously, I still kinda have hope for that general period around the 24th. The 12Z GFS looked craptastic for much of its run but even still showed some potential near that time. Earlier runs showed similar hints too.

We need a helmet catch Hail Mary a'la the NY Giants in Super Bowl XLII!!

You know it's bad when the medium range thread has several plots of the 300+ hour deterministic GFS showing warmth, and relative silence about that. If it were a major snowstorm being shown, everyone would be saying "looks great, but it's the GFS and at 300 hours, no way that happens!"

Problem from what I can see in the 00Z GFS around the 24th is that it has a low in southern Canada, which I would guess is kind of messing things up with the main system of interest that would affect us. Maybe not quite the same as a Lakes low, but I'd have to think it isn't ideal.

Oh and BTW, thanks @SnowenOutThere for starting this thread!! Really cool, and some amazing shots in here including yours. Photography is a serious hobby and big interest of mine, I'm curious what camera/lenses you use. The lunar eclipse is actually a bit tricky to get in a way...you need a long enough shutter because it's so much dimmer, and you also have to crank up the ISO a bit. But at least it's not fleeting so one has time to take several shots at various settings and hope a couple or so come out well! I ended up doing some noise reduction in post as well as boosting the red color a bit. Had to crop it too, though I did use a long telephoto for my shot. More recent cameras have gotten better about noise control at higher ISOs, until you get up to the really extreme values (which I have only used on very rare occasion).

Here are some that I got. One is the lunar eclipse from March 2025...if you look closely, those are actually stars to the right in the photo. The normally bright full moon would have totally obscured those, but during a total lunar eclipse, it is very muted. The others include: a double rainbow, an incoming storm near sunset, blood-red clouds near sunset, and mammatus clouds at the edge of a storm (maybe from the same storm that @Bob Chill showed above??). I always like the sunset colors, the sky and any clouds change color constantly.

Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. ETA: While there were no specific threats that seemed evident in today's deterministic ops runs, some threats have appeared in the guidance on several occasions lately in this time period. For instance, yesterday's 18Z GFS had what looked like a couple or so decent shots. Those were gone today but as long as we can keep seeing those show up it would be nice, and hopefully have one or two really take shape as it gets closer.

Hopefully not a GFS modeling gig!!! But seriously, have a fun time up there!!