Scarlet Pimpernel

I believe now for that cycle (01Z) it reflects the much improved 18Z GFS and the GEFS, hence the bump upward from awhile ago.

Agree. I think it's a bit early to be putting out these kinds of specific amounts right now for specific areas. Maybe on Friday or something, whatever it looks like by then. At this point it would be more responsible and helpful to either show some kind of probability or likelihood given current indications. Like prob of getting 6" or more, 12" or more, with some description or verbiage about the uncertainty or range.

I believe this run of the Euro just showed us our top end scenario...Dayum! Let's hope it holds and others follow.

Sorry should have put this here in Banter!! My bad... That Euro run was insane and a thing of beauty!

And that's with the awful 12Z GFS still in the mix, though it apparently is overwhelmed with all the other inputs that were still looking good. 18Z won't be in there until (I believe) the next NBM winter update cycle at 01Z.

Yeah, more or less. I was alarmed and concerned but when the 12Z CMC, UKMET, Euro, all came in (and the ensembles, including the GEFS), I considered the GFS to be a major outlier solution.

Hell, I don't want Ji representing any part of my subconscious!!!!!

Yes. I am very happy to see the GFS back in line with essentially all other guidance for this region and that (hopefully!) its 12Z cycle was just an aberration that won't happen again. Lends a lot more confidence to at least a really solid warning-level event here with decent potential for a lot more upside.

Good to see the snow depth almost the same or at least in-line with the snowfall. I guess that's to be expected given how cold it is supposed to be. This isn't something that will just melt off and we have nothing much on the ground even if the actual "accumulation" is higher.

I'd like to take a moment to thank @mappy, @stormtracker, and all the Mods for how they've handled the storm thread. It is SO MUCH more readable without all the useless childish and whiny posts at every single slight change in the models each cycle. Even today with the 12Z GFS (and AI-GFS) looking lousy, it was more a discussion and level-headed assessment, and not page after page of (ahem, JI and some others!) with tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth, bitching about how we lost 15" of snow or how we suck, or how it's over, whatever. Much appreciated!

Any further word on the 18Z GEFS? I take it they at least held from 12Z and look solid?

Likely not that high around here at least, but pushing 12:1 or so is possible during some part of the event I'd think.

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal. Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily. I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event. It was only the details that were to be determined. But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then. From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details. I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

Yeah was noticing that. I like that there's not a sharp cutoff and it's expanded.

Dayum...from an inch or maybe two at 12Z, to a foot-plus in the DMV! The 10:1 ratios are still on the order of @stormtracker's baseline of 6-10" area wide.

Gets us into the more moderate stuff...can't complain right now after the previous cycle's fiasco.

At this point, it's just a relief to see the GFS make a big step back toward what essentially all other guidance is saying.

Relative to 12Z, it's FOLKS worthy! But hell, that's a very low bar! (Would a "Guys" be possible though?)

The surface temps will be WAAAY more than cold enough so that's not a concern here as currently indicated. The key is to not have a warm layer aloft that would cause sleet or freezing rain. Not sure of the NC Piedmont but for the DC area it's looking very unlikely that there will be any sleet/ice.

Absolutely...this is through 06Z Monday...18Z on top, 12Z on bottom: (ETA: Ninja'd by @Weather Will, and his graphics are better than the TT ones!)

Any precip/snow maps available? ETA: Just checked it quickly on TT, which is finally out that far and yeah, that low moves more northeast up the coast rather than straight east offshore. And the precip looks greater...notably so.

OK...come on, GFS...go back to what you were showing at 00Z/06Z.

Did the ICON actually sort of back the time up to a little earlier compared to before (and to other models)? Seems that for awhile at least this was trending to more a Sunday-Sunday night (and possibly into Monday) thing.

For reference, here's the 12Z 150h ECMWF valid at the same time. Notice how it's moving out by then but still left us in quite good shape. I'd say 18Z looked better with what appears to be a decent bit yet to come after 6-8".