Scarlet Pimpernel

We need a helmet catch Hail Mary a'la the NY Giants in Super Bowl XLII!!

You know it's bad when the medium range thread has several plots of the 300+ hour deterministic GFS showing warmth, and relative silence about that. If it were a major snowstorm being shown, everyone would be saying "looks great, but it's the GFS and at 300 hours, no way that happens!"

Problem from what I can see in the 00Z GFS around the 24th is that it has a low in southern Canada, which I would guess is kind of messing things up with the main system of interest that would affect us. Maybe not quite the same as a Lakes low, but I'd have to think it isn't ideal.

Oh and BTW, thanks @SnowenOutThere for starting this thread!! Really cool, and some amazing shots in here including yours. Photography is a serious hobby and big interest of mine, I'm curious what camera/lenses you use. The lunar eclipse is actually a bit tricky to get in a way...you need a long enough shutter because it's so much dimmer, and you also have to crank up the ISO a bit. But at least it's not fleeting so one has time to take several shots at various settings and hope a couple or so come out well! I ended up doing some noise reduction in post as well as boosting the red color a bit. Had to crop it too, though I did use a long telephoto for my shot. More recent cameras have gotten better about noise control at higher ISOs, until you get up to the really extreme values (which I have only used on very rare occasion).

Here are some that I got. One is the lunar eclipse from March 2025...if you look closely, those are actually stars to the right in the photo. The normally bright full moon would have totally obscured those, but during a total lunar eclipse, it is very muted. The others include: a double rainbow, an incoming storm near sunset, blood-red clouds near sunset, and mammatus clouds at the edge of a storm (maybe from the same storm that @Bob Chill showed above??). I always like the sunset colors, the sky and any clouds change color constantly.

Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. ETA: While there were no specific threats that seemed evident in today's deterministic ops runs, some threats have appeared in the guidance on several occasions lately in this time period. For instance, yesterday's 18Z GFS had what looked like a couple or so decent shots. Those were gone today but as long as we can keep seeing those show up it would be nice, and hopefully have one or two really take shape as it gets closer.

Hopefully not a GFS modeling gig!!! But seriously, have a fun time up there!!

I posted a response in the main medium range thread, but even though this is an ops out there in time...this kind of threat has shown up in ops runs (not just the GFS) and even ensembles(?) in that time period, several times lately. So I don't think it's just fantasy land bullshit. Not saying for sure we'll get something, but it catches one's attention.

I know we can all laugh at an ops model at range...but a pretty good event has shown up in the ops (not just the GFS) several times now in that time frame. Not guaranteed obviously, but I don't think it's just fantasy either.

I hear King John remembered that storm well!!

Well, for the Cleveland Browns it's not superstition over the past couple of decades. They just suck and don't play well no matter what the situation, the opponent, or time of year!!!

I think the "weekend rule" stuff is over-stated, and/or stated with some jest. If one considers Friday as essentially nearly the weekend and considers that many events spill over into another day (e.g., starts later Friday, goes into or through Saturday), you're talking nearly half the week right there. So yeah, decent chance a storm will occur then. Add in Monday holidays in the winter (MLK Day, Pres Day) and that's even more "weekend" relatively speaking. Plus, perception bias in part, one tends to perhaps recall events that occur on a weekend more.

Agree. I can recall several advisory to warning-level snows between late February and mid-March, it's really not all that rare of a thing relatively speaking. I know there are those who tend to thumb their nose at later season snow events but we've had a decent number. And in not the greatest setups, too.

You do realize that the sleet bomb in the teens we had a couple of weeks ago was due to the mid-levels only. Nothing to do with the surface. And that was with a low cutting into the Ohio valley or there about. Point is, yeah, we were "saved" by very cold surface air in place while the surface and 850 low went way to our west but that was particular to that event. That doesn't mean such a thing would necessarily happen in another scenario where it's cold enough for snow but we get a better low track, say if that happens later this month or in March. You still don't need the coldest of the cold to get a good snow event here, even in the DC-Balt corridor.

Well, I wouldn't take what some deterministic model says at face value going farther out in time. I mean heck...if anyone saw the 12Z GFS earlier, it had cold coming back in the last part of its run and even had a decent snow event around the 24th. Not that it matters really that far out. So whatever.

LOL! Really? OK, yeah I definitely can agree we're done with Arctic air the rest of this winter. I mean, that's just climo and it's rare to get that level of cold as we get farther into this month and into March. So that's kind of a meaningless statement. But we don't need brutal cold to still get a solid wintry event or two between now and March.

Well, getting into the time of year when we typically don't "lock in" on any cold/warm setup so I guess that's not a surprise. I still think we don't get shut out the remainder of the season, and perhaps not even the rest of this month. A decent moderate event, maybe on the order of a SECS-MECS, would still have to be on the table I'd like to believe, between now and early-mid March. And perhaps a second event of some sort too if lucky.

2-m temps look horrid at 120, actually.

I haven't really paid much attention to the somewhat longer range in awhile. But is the previously thought more favorable NA later this month and early March now looking less likely? I recall there was some discussion awhile back about a PV split, and being on our side of the hemisphere, with a good shot at a return to more blocking around that time period. Not sure of the details though. It doesn't seem like the Pac side is going to do much to become better.

Appropriate for a "gray hat" then, I suppose?! Yeah, there's unfortunately a lot of localized IMBY complaining stuff in here, but I suspect that's in any other regional forum too. We've got our share of shit posters for sure, but also many, many excellent and knowledgeable ones. And realistically (for better or worse), a large majority of people in this sub-forum are in the DMV-Baltimore corridor (myself included). Just how it is. I guess I try not to let the weenie trollish and whiney comments drive me away from the otherwise good analysis and discussion from the others. Even if I personally am ticked off or disappointed at a result or how things are looking, I do my best to not let that spill over into this place with a lot of crap posting and whining.

True! It's still "civilized" at that time of year if you're warmer than normal! I still remember Dec. 2015, we had like a +9 departure for the month, ridiculous warmth (though it didn't feel overly uncomfortable at that time of year)...and I was thinking thank God we didn't get a +9 in July!!!

Well, I can do without 80s in March (though won't be the least bit surprised if we hit that at some point then)! We go well above 80 (or 90!) plenty of times each year already! But I'm with you, would be nice to score at least one really good warning-level event this season. Personally, I'd also like to see a modest March snow as well. And I'd like to see February into the first part of March remain generally BN. Agree as well! I know several in here are bummed that we got a ton of sleet from our one major event (rather than all snow) and feel it's all been a waste somehow. But I've liked the amazingly consistent cold and snow cover that literally has not diminished in 2 full weeks now due to that cold (and the layer of solid ice on top). I can literally walk on top of the ice layer and it's as if I'm walking on regular pavement (though more slippery, of course!), without sinking into it. It's actually rather easy to walk on.

The pendulum continues!

Just from my cursory look at both, it looks more Miller A-like to me. Primary low forms in the southeast and runs along the coast. Your typical Miller B would run a primary into TN/KY, and then a secondary forms off OBX or there about that takes over (in our more ideal situations for snow here from Miller Bs).