MAG5035

One thing to note, CCX radar has been out since about 6 or so.

Passing the 1” mark here. Nice steady powder snow falling and 19ºF. Here was my snow map posted before lunchtime today. Not that I’d change it now but I’m fairly happy with it with how the event is evolving. And I did see some of those LSV counties are now warned… something I suspected might happen.

Light to moderate flurries and 19º/9ºF I gotta go elsewhere to watch the Steelers game unless I want to watch it on my IPad. Cable company isn’t coming til tomorrow to reattach my cable line that got ripped off the main line from the wind taking out a tree branch Saturday. No TV or internet, glad I have cellular on my IPad. Had to use my neighbor’s Wi-Fi to get my WS-5000 back broadcasting my obs to Ambient.

Alright here’s my clown map for the storm, I saw a couple of you guy’s mention about snowmaps before the first storm so I’m gonna put one out for a change. Basically this is a general 2-5” event for all of C-PA. Meso guidance showing a stripe of perhaps a bit more somewhere in the LSV, likely coinciding with whereever the stripe of best forcing sets up. I think Adams/York/Lancaster have a half decent shot at needing a low end warning at some point. Other possible high spots are in the Laurel’s where upslope and even better ratios might add a few inches. This event should break NYC/Central Park’s streak without an inch of snow and settle down the Mid-Atlantic/95 folks some.

The southtowns of Buffalo have been getting crushed by a nearly stationary LES band all afternoon. The entire timeframe that game would’ve been played today likely would’ve been a whiteout. I guess this is how cleanup is going haha https://x.com/darrenrovell/status/1746610698400976960?s=20

The morning 12z 3k NAM did have this around lunchtime. These are 850mb winds at 18z (1pm) with a 65kt max in York/Lancaster. That likely mixed down pretty efficiently with the combo of the arctic frontal passage/sunshine/significant cold air advection and westerly winds downsloping into the Sus Valley. The previous 17z frame had the 60kt+ max over the Rou… whatever time bubbler had his 67mph gust. They did have advisories out but sounds like it was a bit more potent than that. Winds should be starting to settle down as we get into the evening.

I think it’s safe to say our phasing big storm potential is probably off the table with regards to Tuesday. However, I do think the wave of lighter snows coming across PA is still viable as we drop in the northern branch trough and try to force some precip development. That’s still on the majority of guidance in various forms. Gonna need good ratios to yield anything advisory worthy, which given the cold column in place should be doable. A 15:1 on a tenth or two of QPF with some decent surface cold would be enough for an advisory event in the Sus Valley. I’m already starting to pay more attention to the high res and short range guidance to get a handle on this. One thing I’m noticing is a precip hole in the south central part of the state. Since this is modeled to be more of a wave now with later and further offshore/weaker coastal development, predominant low level flow is of a WSW component. So that implies potential downsloping off the Alleghenies and a potential precip shadow in play.

I’m sure the state of emergency declaration probably did in any chance of them going thru with the game. You’re either telling people to stay off the roads or you’re not. Pittsburgh’s only a bit over 200 miles from Buffalo, you think Steeler fans or Bills Mafia would actually stay home and not try to go to the game? Haha

Wind gust just took a branch out, which then took my cable line down.

I’m just waiting for the NFL to announce they’re going to play the game Monday night or something. The NY governor declared state of emergency for that part of the state last night. As much of a spectacle that it would be on TV, I dunno how you logistically play the game when it comes to getting the fans there in those conditions with the state of emergency declaration.

I didn’t notice the Mid-Atlantic folks started a storm thread earlier this afternoon, that explains everything haha.

The SE breeze here this afternoon is definitely more feisty than the one with Tuesday’s system. High gust of 31mph. Temp/dewpoint at 40/28ºF.

Extended 18z HRRR is interesting toward the end. Occluded front comes through overnight tonight and brings falling temps back to around freezing tomorrow. There’s the arctic front that then comes through Sat night-Sun morning that sharply brings temps down with the arrival of the actual arctic air. Tries to model a line of squalls crossing the state with it. Perhaps something to keep an eye on this weekend. This feature is showing on other high res guidance like the 3k NAM and RRFS.

12z vs 6z GEFS on the means, pretty notable step back this run I think a more progressive outcome is still workable (and perhaps the most likely outcome currently) as the 500mb energy diving in behind the developing coastal low probably still helps generate the shield of precip thats been on the GFS and Canadian. It wouldn’t a be a big hitter for us but a light to moderate event with a cold column can make up some in ratios. Need to get the Euro on board to at least some degree at some point.

Not to mention Saturday night having 65mph wind gusts. Man I don’t know haha, BUF grids around there have 8-12 by Sunday morning and it looks like the main band focuses there in the morning right up to game time on high res guidance before maybe it slides just south. That’s going to be really difficult for fans to get to day of. Being a playoff game, not much you can do. I’m sure they wouldn’t move venues. About the only thing you could do is push the game to Monday.. and there’s still heavy snow in the grids that day too. PFT finally had an article about it this morning. I don’t know where Florio is getting his weather forecast but it certainly isn’t the NWS.

Busier than you think haha. The major routes around here (I-99, US 22, US 322, US 219) are moderately busy, especially around State College. The stretch of Route 322 that goes up the Allegheny Front towards Clearfield was closed for several hours during Tuesday morning’s snow blast, as were several other intermediate routes in the area. I’m looking north of here for any potential bigger issues this evening, though we’ll see. North-central up above I-80 has been the target area for several inches of snow. Between here and State College on the I-99 corridor will be need to be watched when precip arrives this eve, but this one will be starting with warmer surface temps.

Here’s the latest for the arctic wild-card matchups Kansas City 7pm Sat via NBM. This falls to about -3ºF by the end of the game. Euro is as cold as -5ºF at kickoff Wind Chills: Here’s BUF’s early snow forecast for the lake effect snow. Orchard Park is right in the middle of that 18-24”

What do you think about the 500mb differences out west? To me that’s part of the equation of why the Euro is doing what it’s doing having a potent shortwave swinging down into the Pac NW dampening the western ridge where the GFS just has a nicely amplified ridge all the way up thru BC and no shortwave whatsoever. On the other hand I guess other guidance like the Canadian has that shortwave feature similar to the Euro and manages to be even further inside with the track than the GFS. But putting the Euro and GFS side by side that’s a big difference in the major features out west.

18z Euro ensemble mean/probs were in the ballpark of how it was 12z (a tad better in PA with 1”+ probs, while the Euro control at least had a system of some substance this go around with a wave of light snow thru PA and a swath of 2”+ I-95 corridor and east.

The 500mb differences in the Euro v GFS today were massive, not only in the timeframe of the Tues event but beyond it. I’m using 12z so i can do the Euro v GFS side by side (18z GFS was similar to 12z) GFS has a much more defined western ridge axis that extends all the way up thru BC while the Euro has a shortwave diving into Washington really dampening the ridge. The more amplified GFS allows the shortwave trough axis to rotate and generate our east coast storm. We’re going to have to continue to resolve thru the handling of these features, but certainly a sizeable event is on the table. If we amplify similar to the GFS I will note the position of the western ridge axis on the west coast. C-PA ideal positioning is the ridge axis thru Boise, ID… so it’s a little bit west. Given the cold on the playing field I think this is still okay but if we amplify a bigger event I don’t think we’d be fringed.

Some finals from yesterday’s storm. 1.47” total as measured by the rain gauge (WS-5000 station), which includes morning snow that piled into it. I brought the rain gauge inside and got the snow quickly melted. That only yielded about 0.4” which is likely too low, that would’ve been a 17.5:1 ratio at 7”. Ratio was probably close to 10:1, so precip total with the inch of rain was probably more in the 1.75” range. Pressure bottomed out at 983mb around 9pm last night, a drop of 41mb in 24 hours. Peak wind gust (this afternoon) of 42 mph. It was pretty windy today but nothing crazy despite the early morning upgrade to high wind warning this county had today. Still generally 6” of snow in the yard, except under the pine trees at the edge of the property. There was about 3-4” of snow left from Saturday prior to yesterdays snow.

I’d make a solid wager on it becoming very newsworthy in the sports media as it gets in the short range and BUF starts putting out products and accumulation forecasts for it (significant LES already being mentioned in their AFD). Although I’d probably make a solid wager on taking the Steelers at +10 too haha. But it seriously looks like a great setup for a major LES event. It’d be the first widespread one of the season with legitimate cold air over the unfrozen lakes too. I posted a map a few days ago and things look about the same with that WSW flow over the length of Lake Erie focusing on the south towns of Buffalo (where Orchard Park is). Aligned cyclonic WSW flow all the way up through 700mb. Low level 925 and 850mb temps in the -10 to -18ºC (ideal range for snow growth) over water temps in Erie that are mostly in the upper 30s to near 40. Timing is right around game time too and during Sunday. It could be a quite a spectacle.

You might be getting some local downsloping off whichever ridge is just east of Rouzerville (not familiar with the names down there). Velocities in that orange are 80+ mph and beam height around where you’re at is at about 4k feet (about the 900mb level). Which by the way, using LWX here but I haven’t seen that kind of velocity presentation on CCX radar since Sandy.

There’s been very little wind here all day. The snowpack has helped with keeping a stable cool surface layer. Peak wind gust on my station was 24.4mph which happened pre-dawn before the precip arrived. Only some mid-teens gusts occasionally this afternoon. Precip onset and changeover points are easily noticeable on the weather station obs with the wind direction changes and the temp/dew. Not to mention you can see the first half of last night where there was rad cooling and the temps spiked above freezing when the wind kicked up out of the south.

Finally gave up the good fight in the last half hour. Transition to rain at 33/33ºF. Final snow total was 7”.