BooneWX

Is the atmosphere capable of normal rain anymore? I’m talking like a half inch in a day with a frontal passage or quick moving system. It’d be neat to not get an atmospheric river every time.

Spent the day in Ashe and Watauga counties. Widespread .5” totals and many areas along the escarpment are still well below freezing at this hour. It may have been a lucky break for many, but not the northern mountains.

MAKE FEBRUARY GREAT AGAIN! A stall in 8?! Never thought I’d see the day. .

Kinda intrigued to watch what happens today. I keep thinking the DP can’t tick lower with precip falling but it does. GSP talked about the cold air advection being a bit stronger this afternoon than initially thought, so we’ll see if that feed keeps coming. Rn, I have a light NE breeze.

Shocked no one posted this yet .

Yes you’re probably out of time in Georgia but you don’t have to remind the rest of the thread about that every other post.

The GEFS and EPS are almost identical at this range. The specifics will need to be worked out but yea this pattern has serious legs to it. I’d like to see that 50/50 low slightly further west but that’s nitpicking a beautiful setup. Look at that block to the north! There’s plenty of cold in Canada and it should get displaced. The next few days while we build boats, southern Canada and New England will be building a glacier. We’ve been on a trend this year of having highs to the north but they’re either too weak or not in an optimal position. If we can build that snowpack above us, I think we could make more of these 1030-1035mb HPs benefit us. I don’t think this pattern favors a cutter, it favors a big EC storm. Someone, maybe us, maybe not, is about to get possibly the storm of the year. With as cold as this winter has been, it’s only right that it happens. .

The 500 mb pattern is a thing of beauty during that stretch.

Almost everyone is blissfully unaware of this potentially coming

18z NAM is apocalyptic

I hope the NAM is out to lunch because it’s painting apocalyptic frz rn totals in the mountains of NC and VA. For a large chunk of the event it has temps running between 28-30 in those areas.

I like what I see for 12z. One last crack at winter outside of the mountains to end the month.

Went to the NAM expecting to see a warm bias for the next two days but man…if I’m in Ashe, Watauga and Alleghany counties up to Grayson Highlands, I’m making sure the generator is working properly.

I’m really shocked too. Half of the normal bar for flooding will cause problems.

Reminds me a lot of the storm a month or two ago that dumped 4” on Mount Airy and almost no one else in NC. Seems to be the sweet spot outside of the mountains this year. They may be taking Roxboro’s title.

In other news: insanely beautiful day. Spring fever in full effect.

Man these models keep trending wetter and wetter for this week and of course it’s us, the mountains and E TN. This region has had enough misery these past few months. Unreal luck.

Agreed. P8 is going to give us a shot for the north of I-85 crowd.

I think we’ve got one more crack at it, pattern wise, beyond Valentine’s with the heart of the cold probably centering around the 20th-the end of the month. It’s been a long time since we’ve scored in Feb but a big part of that has been due to an unfavorable Pacific and never journeying through the cold phases of the MJO. I don’t think the MJO is everything but I’ll take my chances in phase 8 & 1 any time.

I’ll take the bait. I think winter is over for your area, but late Feb phase 8 MJO with a neutral to weak Nina can work from the upstate north.

Yea this is a non-issue south of VA. I think we get one last crack in the climo favored regions once we get into phase 8 of the MJO and then it’s curtain call time.

Yep. The Helene region is just fine with rain if snow is off the table.

I’m afraid of this as well. I’ll be hitting blue line creeks in higher elevations targeting specs and splitting my other time for crappie and bass on the lake.

Get that pre emergent down boys! Don’t wait or you’ll be regretting it come April. I think an early spring is coming for once. I don’t personally see this flipping to extended cold with an established and strengthening La Niña in March/April. edit: except we’ll absolutely have a wedge for opening day of trout season. Absolutely given lol.

Got my pre emergent down just in time