BooneWX

SNOW IS FALLING

4 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

I've been a bit booked up this last week. What's the take for February looking like as of late? I see the rest of January is a punt. That leaves us with essentially 28 realistic days to score. And heck, I'm not even convinved February is a good winter month for us anymore. 

On paper, Feb looks good and we’re heading into a weaker Nino state, which historically means cold and wet in the east. 

The deck is lowering quickly. Temp down to 36 with a ton of room to go (DP 25).

Radar is filling in quickly 

Mping showing snow near Winston and the nw piedmont. Anybody from up that way?

36/26 in southern Caldwell. Fingers crossed everybody. 

I just want to see some flakes today. Don’t really care if it sticks, just want to see it fall from the sky. 

2 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

It’s hard not to feel completed defeated by this upcoming week. Plenty of cold. There was moisture around but somehow we find a way not to combine the two. Then a warmup is coming 

And I haven’t looked too far ahead but I assume with that warm up, we’ll manage to squeeze out half a foot of rainfall 

I torched overnight. Nearly 40 degrees now lol. 

5 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Can Lake Norman join the Foothills party?

We south Piedmont folk are also loathing the current pattern.

Not a drop of the powder here since 1/21/22.

Come on in Stormin! 

This is a sobering map

Moisture blossoming deep into Alabama and now nw Georgia 

I’m getting more and more confident moisture gets here but I have little confidence in the temperatures cooperating.

7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Just mentioned this in banter.  These short range models are not aligning with the current radar presentation.  More moisture on the south side of the system and trajectory takes this well into NC towards the triad.  Probably factoring in low DPs and drying this up quickly.  

I think you’re right. Downsloping from the angle of approach is also going to be a challenge but it’s one this thread knows all too well. 

39 degrees now and dropping steadily. So there’s that.

Took the dog out one more time and was pleasantly surprised to see that the stars are still visible 

41.4/29

17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can u give an example of comparing it?

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

It’s missing most of the precipitation that’s currently in Mississippi and Alabama. I think it’s completely underestimating the southern extent of that moisture which appears to be robust and roughly 50-75 miles south of where the model believes it is. 

HRRR is further south this run and it still isn’t accurately depicting the current radar trends. 

Preach. The pacific has screwed up everything for long enough. If you don’t have a ridge out west, you might as well be hoping for a torch and nice weather here.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

We do really need a strong CAD. You would think with a -NAO we would have that but the SE Ridge is still flexing just enough..

Yea this -NAO certainly didn’t deliver. 

5 minutes ago, Ernest T Bass said:

Unless they start a NW Piedmont thread, I'm going to hang here.  

We need a storm with a NE wind cold feed.  I don't know much, but I know that. 

Close enough my friend. You’re welcome here. The NW piedmont is hilly enough!

7 minutes ago, tjgrogan said:

Does anyone think the snow will make it to Hickory, North Carolina?

Join us in the foothill thread! We’re analyzing and agonizing as a collective downsloping group. 

HRRR initializing 3 degrees warmer than my actual fwiw 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Sad results 

Curious - did the temps initialize accurately? I’d say that’s our only hope