BooneWX

Hour 171…..

Just now, Met1985 said:

It's like the boundary gets caught up along the mountains. But this isn't the final solution so im not fretting. 

Yep this is far from over. The energy isn’t even onshore and we have a massive storm system to work through today before the models get clarity. I wouldn’t exactly expect the models to nail an overrunning event 3+ days out anyways.

It’s kinda hilarious we’ve measured rain in feet for weeks and now the moisture is nowhere to be found 

Not fun but let’s see what the ensemble’s say 

These are the vibes I’m getting

This setup screams December 2017.

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

The trend over the last 4 runs of the gfs for 12z Tuesday morning.

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I’m afraid of that look for the escarpment. It screams steady light freezing rain potential.

Another good run for the pieces of energy, it just didn’t translate to the surface map like we would hope 

Feels like it’s been a century since the hot light was on for this thread mid-winter

Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

You are others not so much.


.

A few weeks ago we didn’t even have cold air on this side of the globe. We’re at least sniffing winter weather. We’re all back. 

The trend is your friend 

We’re so back 

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

This looks decent I think 

Hopefully the beginning of very positive trends today 

6z euro dug quite a bit and nearly pulled off a legitimate phased miller a

Watching Brad P’s ski southeast video, he didn’t go into much detail but his interest seemed perked for next weekend. 

Today is the day the pieces come together. Manifesting all of the good vibes.  

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It still didn't give us what we want but it was a lot colder. Just dry dry dry

I’ll really be curious to see what modeling looks like come Saturday. That precip shield looked so weird on the model and you’ve got to wonder if they’re struggling with some sort of feedback issue. 

13 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Another day and another solution via the operational guidance. So the GFS and Canadian have trended toward the Euro in developing a low somewhere between I-20 and the Gulf Coast? Frankly I'm not sure with 5 days to go that these computer schemes are done moving around. Got to remember that all that Arctic air hasn't even materialize in real time so far. That chunk of very dense Artic airmass likey will not materialize until our Friday rainstorm moves well into Canada. My wag is to see what Saturday and Sunday solutions hold. Remember last weekend this storm was suggested for this Sunday into Monday. Now it's Monday into Tuesday.

And it’s also likely this past storm and the next one are really throwing a kink into the models. There’s been so much flip flopping the past few weeks, idk if anything past 72-96 hrs can be taken seriously.

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Maybe a smidgen better... Still a long way to go

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Based on the pattern, I think that 20th timeframe is going to bare the most watching. The 16th still could surprise us. If we don’t score off of that potential, we’re on to February.

Shout out to our crew. We’ve made the hot light come on 4 times this week without a single threat to track. Just imagine what we’d do with a storm. 

Fab Feb am I right?! 

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If it doesn't snow at least we can track cold temps. That should be fun lol.

It’s getting very gusty here

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is another swing and miss for most 

Honestly, I don’t hate that look. A slight jog south or east and many would be in the game. 

Closing in on 4 inches. @wncsnow was right with the over 3.5 call