BooneWX

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

 

 

 

 

 

And that’s coming from someone who enjoys making people feel miserable about winter weather odds. Weather twitter has been quite the crap show this week. I love looking ahead at patterns as much as the next enthusiast but it’s not healthy to cancel winter in late December based on models that move storms 3,000 miles every 6 hrs. 

really good analysis for those of us wanting some hope as well:
 

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1739780789842112635?s=46

10 minutes ago, BretWx said:

It’s still early.


.

And right on que - the happy hour GFS delivers 

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If we don't get a major SWE I think the odds of area wide snow is pretty slim

Oddly enough, I’m torn because I feel like more times than not, a SWE means suppression city for storm tracks. I really think we need to time up the NAO and PNA for one frickin time in our lives. We’ve had a ton of one or the other but not a lot of both in recent years. 
 

you may certainly be right though. This side of the globe is almost devoid of cold and we need that to change in a big way to have a chance. It’s alarming when places like Buffalo and Chicago really haven’t even been able to muster up a decent storm and we’re almost to January.

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

A boom for you guys east side if Apps, bust western side as downsloping killed us. 0.30 Total here ! 

if only it worked this way with winter weather. 

Starting to see some local flooding here. Ponds are overflowing, water standing in the road and for the first time since about July, the lake is at full brim. 

The sound of steady rain hitting the metal roof is easing the soul tonight. Been battling either the flu or strep for 2 days. Hope yall had a better holiday than I did . Merry Christmas!

I’m just ecstatic we finally have a pattern coming that makes model watching worth it 

7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

A bump in the snow mean on the 00z gefs

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Lee minimum showing up so now I know we’re all the way back folks! 

Yall smell that? Smells like it’s almost slider time. 

I’m smelling a southern slider around the corner

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

I’m cautiously optimistic. One thing that concerns me is the lack of snowpack over the northern states and Canada. We really need a sacrificial storm to bring the goods to that region of the continent. 

A dusting of snow on the ground in Caldwell County this morning. Who would’ve thought?! It’s not much but the Christmas cheer is in full swing now. 

Flakes have broken containment here in southern Caldwell County as well. 

Wind has really kicked up just down the mountain. Skies are pitch black to the west and northwest…I think you’re all in for a nice pre-Christmas thumping. 

Not gonna lie. I woke up thinking about the blizzard warnings we would be under if we just had a high to our northwest

I hope this thing does track east. There’s a fine balance in this storm of getting beneficial rainfall and not having destructive winds and multi-day outages. I’m rooting for the 12z evolution even if it sacrifices a bit of rain (we’ll still get very healthy amounts anyways).

44 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Just popping in to say this ULL is our first real chance of the season.  Someone could get hammered very quickly.

As always, enjoyed the blog this morning with my cup of coffee and looking forward to the video!

A 977 in western NC during Dec ranks high on the absurdity chart. If it verifies, the wind from this event would be borderline historic.

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Man, I'd much rather see this be suppressed and head out to sea. GFS with 50-70+ mph gusts region wide will be destructive. Really don't wanna be in the dark for days on end.

And since there’s no snow to speak of to draw attention to it, this is going to catch many off guard. 

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is gonna be a mess if that GFS run is right. Haven't seen a run with widespread winds like this since Irma.

Verbatim, with wet soils, that’s several hundred thousand without power

13 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'm curious to see what this ULL/noreaster does to the pattern as a whole. Seen some wacky stuff out of the gfs in the long range. It could really shake things up.

I’m intrigued as well. It seems like every major typhoon in the wpac has major downstream effects….. similar to that - could this be the wrench in the atmosphere that dislodges some locked up air downstream? The frigid air in Siberia, northern Mongolia and Japan has been relatively locked up by a monster high in south east Asia after it had previously been on the move from Europe. 

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like it will be ending soon

 

The trough is now taking on a negative tilt, so there’s a shot we get some backfilling here shortly 

22 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Anybody heard from the cold front? Still 51 here in Blowing Rock LOL

Per obs on the tempest website, it looks like winds have just now shifted to the NW in eastern TN…….Oof