BooneWX
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Also, something that smells fishy to me that I’ve seen all day. You could technically have freezing rain simultaneously in Fayetteville and Hickory, I guess, but I can’t drum up a single scenario in the past where that has happened. It’s either unprecedented or these models are all out to lunch.
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My main takeaway from the 18z suite is that we need better high placement. Our parent high over the Dakotas isn’t going to do much for us. Either it builds into a less consolidated high or it progresses eastward faster, but if I took away the simulated radar and purely looked at the track + HP location, I’d tell you it’s probably raining almost to DC.
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*Every storm, every year*
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I don’t have a good screenshot because it was mid-Atlantic focused but man. The EPS had some absolute haymakers for western NC.
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One piece of guidance hasn’t flinched with the pieces of energy in several runs: the EPS. The one you want in your back pocket.
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Looking at the HP placement on the Euro, man it’s close. We can historically make a strong HP over Iowa work, at least in the CAD region but any nudge east would do us some huge favors. You can see it scooting east a bit just in time to save the day but timing timing timing.
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EPS holds serve and is a major storm for I-85 north.
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Euro AI had an interesting 6z evolution. More of a slider type of system but idk given the jet if I buy that. It’s an outlier at this point but something to monitor.
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Icon has been too warm with CAD all winter and the CMC is too cold. Split the difference and it’s a nasty ice event between I-85 and middle VA.
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I’ll hope for the latter and I do agree that CAD will come in stronger than modeled on globals. Would love a good front end thump of snow but ice is the likely setup when you’re scooting that 50/50 low so far east. Still time for an earlier phase and honestly some models are teetering close to that.
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My gut says this setup will be an abnormal Miller A with more mixing issues than usual thanks to a late phase. Plenty of time to change but if I had to bet money atm, I’d say ice storm north of I-85 and no snow south of middle VA. Some folks will get hammered with sleet if you’re into that kind of thing.
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I’m going to track this storm because it’s weather but my gut and initial thought is that most of the foothills will see zero snow from this setup. It’s a sleet - sleet and Zr to Zr situation unfortunately. I’m not buying any snow south of middle VA. There’s cold air around that could change this but we don’t know how to do phased storms unless it’s something the pine swamps in ENC can benefit from.
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Yep. I’m rooting for a phased bomb with negative tilt to be reached just east of the Mississippi. Our 50/50 low keeps trending east on guidance which is great for the mid-Atlantic and horrible for us. We need that to stop soon. It lets heights rise way too much and gives the SER breathing room. It’s a fine balance though. But maybe I’m wrong and we just let it trend a hair more east and you get an earlier boom possibly. As always, we’re threading the needle and needing 1,000 things to go right.
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Wild. That track in itself should’ve rendered all areas along and west of I-77 with a foot of snow and almost no mixing.
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Man it’s been Virginia’s year. They’re on a Tennessee style run right now.
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Yes + triad Mets who are usually quiet in the lead up
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What has my attention is extremely conservative mets discussing it
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What a beaut! People got so bored being stranded on I-77 and Hwy 52 that they got out of their cars and just made snowmen and had a good time.
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Lived in Mount Airy at the time. Woke up with 9 ish inches after day 1 and proceeded to double it in a quarter of the time. Still probably my favorite event of all time.
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I said this last event and it aged like sour milk but the surface evolution and upper air pattern gives me Feb 2014 vibes. That storm had a multiple wave component to it with a trailing upper low that hammered nw nc.
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Every model shows a winter storm in some fashion for the upper SE. That’s remarkable agreement at this stage.
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I refuse to even look at the CMC or its suite after this past month. It’s not only been wrong, it’s been club 384 wrong at medium/short range too.
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Whether it amps too much and becomes rain or not, idk, but that southern jet screams major storm as opposed to anything weak and suppressed. Gut says classic I85N event but I could still see this trending to Kentucky/Middle VA north.
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The only wives tale or old school logic I 100% believe in, is to watch the animals. If we get to Sunday-Tuesday and they start acting odd, usually something is coming. Before the sleet fest in mid Jan, the deer, geese, crows and herons were working overtime to eat. Saw way more wildlife activity than normal in the 3 days leading up.
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The EPS imo is the one piece I want in my pocket at this range
